WNBA MVP Betting Trends: Can A’ja Wilson Catch Napheesa Collier?

The 2025 WNBA MVP market has shifted dramatically, with Napheesa Collier seizing control of the award chase. The Minnesota Lynx star is not just the betting favorite at BetMGM but also the statistical leader in multiple categories while powering her team to the league’s best record.

Let’s look at the latest WNBA MVP betting insights from BetMGM.

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WNBA MVP Line Movement: From Underdog to Heavy Favorite

The latest odds tell the story of how quickly this race has evolved:

• Napheesa Collier: Opened at +650, now the overwhelming favorite at -650.
• A’ja Wilson: Moved from +200 to +425, still firmly in the mix.
• Alyssa Thomas: Rose from +3000 to +9000, a longshot despite her versatility.
• Caitlin Clark: Opened at +250 but is now off the board after injuries derailed her season.

WNBA Statistical Leaders Driving the Market

• Collier (Lynx): Leads the WNBA in scoring at 23.9 PPG on 54.3% shooting, adding 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game. Her dominance has guided Minnesota to the league’s top record (30–7).
• Wilson (Aces): Ranks second in scoring at 23.1 PPG, second in rebounds (10.1 RPG), and leads the league in blocks (2.2 BPG). She’s also been key to Las Vegas’ 11-game winning streak, pushing them to second place.
• Thomas (Mercury): The engine of Phoenix’s offense, averaging 15.9 PPG, a league-best 9.3 APG, plus 9.0 RPG. Her all-around impact keeps her relevant despite long odds.
• Clark (Fever): Last played on July 15 due to a groin injury. Before going down, she averaged 16.5 PPG, 8.8 APG (near the league lead), and 5.0 RPG in just 13 games.

WNBA MVP Betting Splits: Public Still Backing Clark

Even though Clark is no longer active in the market, her early support leaves her as the top liability for sportsbooks:

• Highest Ticket %: Clark (43.4%), Wilson (12.9%), Collier (11.6%).
• Highest Handle %: Clark (38.9%), Collier (29.1%), Thomas (10.0%).
• Biggest Liability: Clark remains No. 1, followed by Wilson and Thomas.

This means sportsbooks are most exposed if Collier continues to dominate, Wilson surges, or Thomas makes a late push.

WNBA MVP Key Storylines for Bettors

• Collier’s Breakout Year – Clear statistical edge and team success put her firmly atop the board.
• Wilson’s Chase – Elite two-way numbers keep her in striking distance, especially if Vegas stays hot.
• Thomas as Triple-Double Threat – Her all-around game makes her a sleeper value despite long odds.
• Clark’s Absence – Injury crushed her candidacy, but her early tickets still drive liability.

WNBA MVP Trends Final Takeaway

The MVP market has shifted decisively toward Napheesa Collier, but A’ja Wilson’s dominance and the possibility of a late push from Alyssa Thomas keep things intriguing. While Caitlin Clark is off the board, her popularity ensures she’ll remain a storyline for bettors and sportsbooks through season’s end.