Wimbledon Men’s Winner Betting Trends: Action Alcaraz

With the Wimbledon semifinals set, the betting market is locked in on four contenders. Jannik Sinner will face Novak Djokovic, while Carlos Alcaraz matches up against Taylor Fritz. From early line shifts to ticket trends and sportsbook liabilities, here’s how the Wimbledon Men’s Tournament Winner odds are shaping up at BetMGM ahead of a thrilling final stretch.

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Line Movement: Odds On the Move

• Carlos Alcaraz +125 to -125
• Jannik Sinner +200 to +200
• Novak Djokovic +300 to +450
• Taylor Fritz +2500 to +1600

Bettors and oddsmakers alike are zeroing in on Carlos Alcaraz. The defending champion opened at +125 to win the men’s title but has since flipped to a clear favorite at -125. Jannik Sinner, who opened at +200, remains steady at that number despite commanding solid market interest. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic’s odds have drifted from +300 to +450, reflecting both the challenging draw and lingering health concerns. The biggest leap belongs to Taylor Fritz — the American longshot has tightened from +2500 to +1600 after his impressive run to the semis. This line action shows just how bullish the market is on Alcaraz repeating and how Fritz’s sleeper bid is drawing new money.

Most Bet Tickets: Public Loves Alcaraz

• Carlos Alcaraz 26.1%
• Jannik Sinner 21.6%
• Novak Djokovic 19.6%

When it comes to total bets placed, Carlos Alcaraz leads the pack with 26.1% of all men’s winner tickets. Sinner sits close behind at 21.6%, with the betting public showing steady confidence in the top seed’s consistency on grass. Despite sitting third on the board, Djokovic has captured 19.6% of tickets — no surprise given his Wimbledon pedigree. Fritz’s number remains slight but notable considering where he started. The distribution shows most casual bettors are backing Alcaraz to repeat but aren’t ruling out Sinner or Djokovic pulling off another memorable title run.

Most Bet Handle: Big Money Backing the Favorite

• Carlos Alcaraz 47.7%
• Jannik Sinner 25.1%
• Novak Djokovic 11.7%

The handle numbers tell an even clearer story — big bettors are stacking money behind Carlos Alcaraz. He accounts for a hefty 47.7% of total men’s winner handle, nearly double Sinner’s 25.1%. Djokovic trails at 11.7% as sharp bettors weigh his path and potential health limitations. The combination of short odds and big stakes means books stand to lose most on Alcaraz if he lifts the trophy again. The disparity between tickets and handle for Alcaraz shows that while casual bets spread across multiple names, the largest wagers trust the reigning champion to get it done.

Biggest Liability: All Eyes on Alcaraz

• Carlos Alcaraz
• Jannik Sinner
• Novak Djokovic

Books are sweating Carlos Alcaraz more than any other name in the field. With the most bet tickets and nearly half of the outright handle, Alcaraz is the biggest liability for sportsbooks heading into the semifinals. Jannik Sinner also represents a meaningful exposure, with strong public support and a steady price that hasn’t scared off backers. Djokovic — usually the man books fear at Wimbledon — is the third biggest liability but at a significantly smaller scale than Alcaraz. If the young Spaniard finishes the job, the payout for his loyal backers will be massive — and the hit to sportsbooks could be just as big.