US Open Women’s Final Betting Trends: Sabalenka or Anisimova?
Host · Writer
The women’s draw at the 2025 US Open has delivered a blockbuster championship match: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against American star Amanda Anisimova. Both players navigated tough paths to reach the final, and sportsbooks have taken notice with big shifts in odds, liability, and handle leading up to the title clash.
Let’s break down the key betting insights at BetMGM ahead of Saturday’s showdown.
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US Open Women’s Tournament Winner Line Movement
- Aryna Sabalenka: +225 → -190
- Amanda Anisimova: +2500 → +160
Sabalenka opened as one of the top contenders and has justified that respect with a dominant run to the final, slashing her price from +225 all the way to heavy favorite status at -190. On the other side, Anisimova was a long shot at +2500 but has surged all the way to +160 after an impressive march through the draw. Bettors who grabbed early exposure on the American are sitting on serious closing line value.
Sabalenka and Anisimova’s Road to the Final
Aryna Sabalenka’s road to the US Open final showed why she entered as one of the favorites. The world No. 1 rolled past Masarova and Kudermetova before outlasting Leylah Fernandez. She then backed it up with a straight-sets win over Cristina Bucsa, a victory over Vondrousova via walkover, and by getting by Pegula in the semis.
Amanda Anisimova, meanwhile, delivered one of the tournament’s most impressive runs. The American battled past Birrell, Joint, and Cristian before taking out Haddad Maia in dominant fashion. She then stunned No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek in the quarters and survived a three-set fight against Naomi Osaka in the semis to make the final.
Both players arrive in peak form, setting up a final that pits the steady dominance of Sabalenka against the breakout resurgence of Anisimova.
US Open Women’s Highest Ticket Percentage
- Iga Swiatek – 16.1%
- Aryna Sabalenka – 15.2%
- Naomi Osaka – 15.1%
Tickets tell the story of where casual money has landed. Swiatek, the former world No. 1, led the field in overall bets despite her earlier exit. Sabalenka and Osaka followed closely, showing that the public gravitated toward established champions. Anisimova didn’t crack the top three in ticket share, making her deep run even more surprising to sportsbooks.
US Open Women’s Highest Handle Percentage
- Aryna Sabalenka – 22.9%
- Naomi Osaka – 17.5%
- Iga Swiatek – 16.6%
Handle shows where the big-money wagers were placed, and Sabalenka dominated this category with nearly a quarter of all futures money backing her. That level of sharp investment is a major reason sportsbooks have adjusted her to a strong favorite. Osaka and Swiatek also commanded significant dollars, but both fell short of the championship, leaving Sabalenka as the top liability still standing.
US Open Women’s Biggest Liabilities
- Naomi Osaka
- Coco Gauff
- Aryna Sabalenka
From the sportsbook perspective, Osaka was the largest liability due to her popularity and the significant handle she generated before bowing out. Gauff also drew heavy exposure as a fan favorite with US bettors. Sabalenka remains on this list because of her overwhelming handle percentage, meaning books will be rooting hard against her in the final. If the world No. 1 lifts the trophy, sportsbooks will take a sizable hit.
US Open Women’s Final Match Point
The 2025 US Open women’s final has set up a classic betting scenario: the chalk versus the longshot turned contender. Sabalenka entered with market confidence and has only strengthened her grip as the favorite, while Anisimova has provided a dream run for early backers holding tickets at 25-1. With books already exposed on Sabalenka, an upset win by the American could be the result sportsbooks quietly welcome.
