US Open Men’s Final Betting Trends: Alcaraz Battles Sinner
Host · Writer
The 2025 US Open men’s final brings tennis fans a dream matchup: World No. 1 Jannik Sinner against World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. Oddsmakers have seen massive swings in the futures market as both stars powered their way through the draw, leaving sportsbooks heavily exposed on each side of the championship. Let’s dive into the key betting insights and how we got here.
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Men’s Tournament Winner Line Movement
- Jannik Sinner: +200 → -190
- Carlos Alcaraz: +200 → +160
Both Sinner and Alcaraz opened at the same price, reflecting their status as co-favorites. But as the Italian delivered statement wins, his odds shortened dramatically to -190. Alcaraz, who also cruised past elite competition, has still seen his number cut to +160, making this final a clash between two players that the market expected all along.
Check out the women’s betting insights here.
Sinner and Alcaraz’s Path to the Final
Jannik Sinner lived up to his No. 1 seed with a dominant march through the draw. He opened with routine wins over Kopriva and Popyrin, then handled Denis Shapovalov after dropping the first set. Sinner followed that up by dismissing Bublik in straight sets before cruising past Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis.
Carlos Alcaraz took a slightly more challenging route but showed the same level of dominance. The Spaniard opened with wins over Opelka, Bellucci, and Darderi, then dispatched Rinderknech in straight sets. He followed with a quarterfinal win against Jiri Lehecka and a hard-fought semifinal battle versus Djokovic, pulling through in straight sets.
Alcaraz’s balance of power and athleticism has carried him back to the US Open final, where he’ll meet his biggest rival.
US Open Men’s Most Bet Tickets
- Carlos Alcaraz – 28.0%
- Jannik Sinner – 20.0%
- Novak Djokovic – 15.7%
The public leaned more toward Alcaraz, who led the ticket count at 28%. His electric style and prior US Open success made him a magnet for casual wagers. Sinner still commanded a substantial 20% share, while Djokovic rounded out the top three, though his run ended in the semifinals.
US Open Men’s Most Bet Handle
- Jannik Sinner – 42.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz – 26.7%
- Novak Djokovic – 10.7%
When it comes to big-money bets, Sinner was the clear target. Nearly half of all handle flowed toward the Italian, reflecting sharp confidence in his form and fitness. Alcaraz wasn’t far behind at 26.7%, giving sportsbooks a major liability on both sides. Djokovic, meanwhile, attracted notable dollars but never reached the title match.
US Open Men’s Biggest Liabilities
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Novak Djokovic
- Jannik Sinner
Books are sweating regardless of who wins. Alcaraz represents the biggest overall liability thanks to his popularity in the ticket market, while Djokovic carried risk before falling short. Sinner’s surge in handle makes him a dangerous outcome for sportsbooks as well, setting up a final that ensures payouts will sting no matter what.
US Open Men’s Final Match Point
The men’s final is everything fans and sportsbooks could have asked for: two young stars at the peak of their powers colliding for a Grand Slam title. Sinner has been the sharper market mover, backed heavily by sharp money, while Alcaraz holds the edge with public support and ticket share. No matter the outcome, Sunday’s championship promises both drama on the court and fireworks in the betting market.
