UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 Semis: Germany vs Spain Betting Trends

We’ve reached the final four of the 2025 Women’s Euros, and the Spain vs. Germany matchup is shaping up to be the most lopsided on the board—at least according to the sportsbooks and the betting public. Spain enters the semifinal as a -200 favorite to win in regulation after opening at -190, while Germany is a sizable underdog at +475 to win in 90 minutes after opening at +500. If you’re looking for drama, this might not be it—at least that’s what the sharp money is saying.

Let’s break it all down: the odds, the handle, and what the market is telling us with just days to go before kickoff.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Betting Handle & Public Splits: Sharps Love Spain

This isn’t just about Spain being a better team on paper—it’s how the money is moving. While only 33% of the total tickets are on Spain to win, they account for a staggering 95% of the total handle. That’s a massive gap, and when you see a disparity that big, it’s usually a clear sign of sharp money flooding in on one side. In this case, it’s all La Roja.

Germany, meanwhile, is getting just 4% of the handle despite pulling in 47% of the tickets—a classic case of public optimism not backed by serious bettors. The tie market (+340) is seeing modest action with 20% of tickets, but only 1% of the handle. Translation? Nobody really believes this one is going the distance.

Can Germany Pull Off the Upset? The Numbers Say No

At +475, there’s always going to be some temptation to sprinkle a little on Germany. But based on the market and the matchup, it’s a long shot for a reason. Germany’s squad lacks the depth and technical cohesion Spain brings to the pitch, and the form simply hasn’t been there in recent rounds. Spain’s midfield has dominated possession against everyone they’ve faced, and unless Germany can disrupt that rhythm, it could get out of hand quickly.

If you’re holding out hope for chaos, you’re betting on intangibles—late-match heroics, goalkeeper magic, or Spain stumbling under pressure. Not impossible, but don’t count on it.

Spain’s Path Looks Strong—But Is There Still Value?

At -200, Spain to win in regulation won’t offer much juice for casual bettors, but in parlays or multi-leg plays, it could be a strong anchor. The overwhelming handle percentage suggests the market believes this ends in 90 minutes, and there’s still value in backing Spain if you’re willing to pair it with other action.

Want to take a swing? Consider alternate spreads or exact score bets—Spain -1.5 or a 2-0 result could bring better returns with a similar outlook. The way this market is moving, Spain is expected to dominate.

Final Verdict: Spain or Pass

Everything about this matchup points to one side—Spain. The odds, the handle splits, and the public-vs-sharp divide all signal La Roja as the play. Germany has history and pedigree, sure, but right now, the talent and form lie firmly with Spain.

If you’re betting this match, there’s no need to get cute. Stick with the side the sharps are backing, or look for creative ways to build around a Spain win.

BetMGM data is based on straight bets.