Premier League Top Goalscorer Trends: Buying or Selling Salah?

With the 2025-26 Premier League season kicking off next week, the Golden Boot betting market is already heating up with sharp action, major liability flags, and some aggressive line movement. It’s no surprise that Manchester City’s Erling Haaland opened as the favorite, but what’s catching the betting public’s attention are the names flying up the board—notably Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, and Joao Pedro.

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Market Moves & Early Value

Erling Haaland’s odds have moved from +125 to +138—not a huge drift, but enough to indicate a tepid start and emerging contenders. After posting 22 goals in a “down year” last season, Haaland’s recent form includes three goals in four matches in the Club World Cup earlier this Summer.

Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s talisman and last year’s Golden Boot winner (29 goals), has also seen movement—from +400 to +450—as his early form has been solid but unspectacular. He just converted in a friendly against LALIGA’s Athletic Club on Monday, so he looks ready for the season.

The biggest mover? Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres. With Sporting CP, late this spring he had two goals in his final two games with the side in late May. We’ve seen his odds, sliced from +1000 to +550. Gyökeres is dominating the handle share at 27.0% and ranks second in tickets (18.1%). Arsenal’s attack looks primed to feed him chances all season.

Another name rising quickly is Chelsea’s Joao Pedro. He’s trimmed from +3300 to +2000 and is coming off a three-goal showing in three Club World Cup games this summer. Bettors are buying in, with Pedro accounting for 13.3% of tickets and registering as one of BetMGM’s top liability players.

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Erling Haaland +125 to +138
• Mohamed Salah +400 to +450
• Viktor Gyokeres +1000 to +550
• Joao Pedro +3300 to +2000

Ticket %, Handle %, and Liability Watch

Cole Palmer (Chelsea) surprisingly leads all players with 20.5% of total betting tickets. After scoring 15 times last season and converting three times in the Club World Cup, he’s a trendy pick among punters looking for long-term value. Palmer also accounts for 23.7% of handle, making him Chelsea’s most-backed goal-getter and BetMGM’s biggest liability in the market.

Between Palmer, Gyökeres, and Joao Pedro, sportsbooks are on high alert. All three combine high handle and sharp ticket volume—suggesting both public and smart money are aligned.

Highest Ticket%

• Cole Palmer 20.5%
• Viktor Gyokeres 18.1%
• Joao Pedro 13.3%

Highest Handle%

• Viktor Gyokeres 27.0%
• Erling Haaland 23.8%
• Cole Palmer 23.7%

EPL Golden Boot Outlook

We’ve got a top-heavy market headlined by Haaland and Salah, but the real betting energy is behind the young risers. If Gyökeres continues his pace, he could challenge for the lead outright by September. Palmer and Pedro are positioned as longshots with real payout potential, while Haaland remains the guy you can’t fade but maybe shouldn’t back at short odds just yet.

Biggest Liability

• Cole Palmer
• Viktor Gyokeres
• Joao Pedro

The Golden Boot race is wide open early—stay sharp, watch the line moves, and keep your eye on the handle.