Premier League Champion Trends: Liverpool or Manchester City?

The 2025 Premier League season gets underway today, and the defending champions Liverpool are looking to make it back-to-back titles. After lifting the trophy last spring, they’ve started the new campaign as the team to beat — both on the pitch and in the betting markets.

BetMGM’s latest EPL futures data highlights early line movement, public betting favorites, and which teams pose the biggest financial risk to the sportsbook.

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Line Movement: From Opening to Now

Liverpool opened as a co-favorite at +200 but has since tightened to +175, reflecting both their status as title defenders and a solid early-season start. Manchester City, last year’s third-place team, has drifted from +200 to +350, showing some hesitation from bettors on a rebound campaign. Chelsea have made the biggest move, shortening from +2000 to +800 as results and squad form improve. Manchester United have also shifted from +3300 to +2200, suggesting a modest uptick in confidence.

Insight: Liverpool’s odds firming this early indicates strong belief they can repeat, while Chelsea’s surge signals they may be this year’s dark horse. City’s odds drift shows that some bettors are questioning their ability to reclaim the crown.

• Liverpool +200 to +175
• Manchester City +200 to +350
• Chelsea +2000 to +800
• Manchester United +3300 to +2200

Highest Ticket Percentage

Last year’s runner-up, Arsenal, leads all teams in ticket share with 20.6% of total wagers, edging Chelsea at 20.2%. Liverpool comes in third with 17.2%. While they’re the defending champions, Liverpool’s ticket share suggests bettors are exploring alternatives in the early market.

Insight: Arsenal’s strong preseason and attractive odds have made them the public’s most popular choice, while Chelsea’s early surge has nearly matched them in ticket count. Liverpool’s support remains steady but not overwhelming, likely due to shorter odds.

• Arsenal 20.6%
• Chelsea 20.2%
• Liverpool 17.2%

Highest Handle Percentage

Arsenal also tops the handle leaderboard at 22.8%, with Chelsea at 20.3% and Liverpool at 18.7%. This means bigger money is backing the Gunners early on, with Chelsea attracting significant stakes as well.

Insight: The overlap between ticket and handle leaders indicates that Arsenal and Chelsea are attracting both casual and serious bettors. Liverpool’s handle strength keeps them firmly in the conversation, but the larger money is chasing value on their rivals.

• Arsenal 22.8%
• Chelsea 20.3%
• Liverpool 18.7%

Biggest Liability for the Sportsbook

Manchester United is currently BetMGM’s biggest liability in the outright market, followed by Chelsea and Arsenal. Despite not leading in tickets or handle, United’s odds have drawn enough action to create significant payout exposure.

Insight: United’s liability status suggests that while they aren’t the top public pick, the size of the bets coming in on them could spell trouble for sportsbooks if they mount a title challenge. Chelsea’s inclusion here reinforces just how much momentum they’ve gained in the betting markets.

• Manchester United
• Chelsea
• Arsenal