MLS Top Goalscorer Trends: Surridge and Messi Going Kick for Kick

The 2025 MLS Golden Boot race is heating up—and so is the betting market at BetMGM. Lionel Messi and Sam Surridge are deadlocked atop the goalscoring chart, but the action behind them tells a deeper story. Sharp money, surging odds, and surprising liabilities are shaping BetMGM’s sportsbook exposure, with several names seeing massive swings ahead of the season’s second half.

Let’s break down the line movement, public splits, and the longshot threats you need to know.

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Line Movement: Messi Bigger Favorite, Surridge Surges, Denkey Draws Buzz

Lionel Messi opened at +250 and now sits as the clear favorite at -110. With 18 goals, 40 scoring attempts on target (3rd in MLS), and a top-10 expected goals mark (11.58), Messi remains dominant—even if he’s played seven fewer matches than his co-leader.

Sam Surridge has matched Messi’s goal tally (18) but leads all players with 18.56 expected goals and is fifth in shots on target (38). He’s been the model of consistency and value—his odds have moved from +6600 to +250, a massive shift that reflects his league-best xG profile.

Kevin Denkey is also on the rise. Now 13th in goals (12) and 14th in expected goals (11.11), his odds have moved from +2500 to +1800 after drawing serious attention from bettors.

(Open to Now)

• Lionel Messi +250 to -110
• Sam Surridge +6600 to +250
• Kevin Denkey +2500 to +1800

Ticket & Handle %: Denkey, Latte Lath, and Messi Command the Market

Denkey leads the field in ticket count with 17.4%, followed by Emmanuel Latte Lath (10.1%) and Messi (10.1%). Latte Lath’s numbers don’t jump off the page (seven goals, 15 on-target shots, 9.44 xG), but his odds ballooned from +1600 to +6600, and the public hasn’t flinched.

The handle tells a sharper story: Latte Lath commands 25.6% of the money, easily the most of any player. Denkey (11.1%) and Wilfried Zaha (10.1%) round out the top three, signaling strong trust in their potential to climb the leaderboard. Zaha’s numbers remain modest (six goals, 21 on-target shots, 4.83 xG), but bettors saw early upside with his +10000 odds, which have now climbed to +15000.

Highest Ticket%

• Kevin Denkey 17.4%
• Emmanuel Latte Lath 10.1%
• Lionel Messi 10.1%

Highest Handle%

• Emmanuel Latte Lath 25.6%
• Kevin Denkey 11.1%
• Wilfried Zaha 10.1%

Biggest Liabilities: Denkey, Latte Lath & Zaha Put the Books at Risk

No surprise—Kevin Denkey, Emmanuel Latte Lath, and Wilfried Zaha top the liability board at BetMGM. Denkey’s combination of goalscoring form, improving metrics, and price movement has made him the book’s biggest exposure. Latte Lath’s action, especially in the handle, has made him another high-risk payout. Zaha, though less consistent statistically, remains a sneaky liability thanks to sharp money on long odds.

Biggest Liabilities

• Kevin Denkey
• Emmanuel Latte Lath
• Wilfried Zaha

Final Whistle on MLS Golden Boot Race

Lionel Messi remains the deserved favorite, but don’t sleep on Sam Surridge’s xG dominance or Denkey’s betting momentum. Latte Lath and Zaha continue to draw disproportionate handle despite mixed production, creating prime liability scenarios. Whether you’re chasing chalk, value, or chaos, the MLS Top Goalscorer race is one of the most dynamic betting markets of the season.

BetMGM data is based on straight bets.