MLS Top Goalscorer Betting Trends: Messi’s Odds Get Even Shorter

The race for the 2025 MLS Golden Boot is entering a decisive stretch, and the betting market is shifting fast. While Lionel Messi still captures headlines, Kevin Denkey has become the public’s favorite dark horse, with a massive handle and ticket share. Sam Surridge continues to hang around near the top of the odds board, and Emmanuel Latte Lath is drawing serious steam despite his modest goal total. From sharp action to big liabilities, BetMGM’s top goalscorer market paints a vivid picture of what’s coming next.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Line Movement: Messi Holds, Denkey & Surridge Surge

(Open to Now)

• Lionel Messi: +250 → +125
• Sam Surridge: +6600 → +225
• Kevin Denkey: +2500 → +1200

The biggest odds shift remains Sam Surridge’s eye-popping leap from +6600 at open to just +225 now as he leads MLS with 17 markers in 23 matches. His scoring consistency has kept him well within striking distance. Kevin Denkey has drifted slightly from last week’s +1000 to +1200 but is still miles ahead of his original +2500 price tag. Messi, meanwhile, has narrowed from +250 to +125, as Inter Miami’s Argentine talisman continues to score at a blistering pace. Messi (16 goals) is just one back of Surridge’s league lead despite playing six fewer games this season. The odds board remains fluid — and sharp money is moving with it.

Highest Ticket%: Denkey Leads the Pack

• Kevin Denkey: 17.7%
• Emmanuel Latte Lath: 10.2%
• Tai Baribo: 9.5%

Kevin Denkey is pulling in nearly one-fifth of all bets placed on the top scorer market, even though he’s five back of Surridge with 12 goals on the campaign. He remains a clear favorite for the betting public. His combination of odds value and goalscoring form makes him a high-upside play. Emmanuel Latte Lath isn’t far behind at 10.2% despite just six goals, suggesting faith in a breakout. Tai Baribo, who sits on 14 goals for Philadelphia, continues to ride a wave of momentum at 9.5%. These aren’t just bets — they’re convictions from the MLS betting community.

Highest Handle%: Big Money on Latte Lath

• Emmanuel Latte Lath: 25.7%
• Kevin Denkey: 11.1%
• Wilfried Zaha: 10.1%

The largest wagers are backing Emmanuel Latte Lath, whose 25.7% handle share is more than double any other player. It’s a major show of confidence, perhaps from pre- and early season, despite his distance from the goalscoring leaderboard. Kevin Denkey’s 11.1% shows crossover between casual bets and high-stakes confidence. Charlotte FC’s Wilfried Zaha rounds out the top three at 10.1%, despite his +15000 odds and just five goals. The disparity between production and action is a sign that bettors believe in a late-season heater.

Biggest Liabilities: Denkey, Latte Lath, and Zaha

• Kevin Denkey
• Emmanuel Latte Lath
• Wilfried Zaha

These three are keeping the books up at night. Kevin Denkey, with the most tickets and a strong handle share, is a major red flag for BetMGM if he goes on a scoring tear. Emmanuel Latte Lath brings the biggest potential payout if his backers are right — a true high-risk position for the sportsbooks. Wilfried Zaha, at long odds, rounds out the list of heavy liabilities. All three are off the board in terms of expected value but very much on the radar for both bettors and bookmakers.

BetMGM data is based on straight bets.