NFL Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Week 14

NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. The holidays are here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 14!

Where to Watch New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
• Location: Tampa, FL
• Where to Watch: CBS
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Spread: TB -8.5 (-112) | Total: 42.5 (-115/-105)
• Moneyline: NO +385 | TB -500

For a bit of NFC South action, the New Orleans Saints (2-10) are visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) in Week 14. These familiar foes have met already this season. Just before Halloween, the Bucs defeated the Saints at the Superdome by a score of 23-3.

Tampa Bay enters this bid as a divisional leader. The Buccaneers are not at top form, as they — like many others — are dealing with injuries up and down the roster. Still, the offense here is ranked 17th in scoring (23.3 PPG) at this time. Quarterback Baker Mayfield (61.2 QBR) is still dealing with an ailing left shoulder, but he is as tough as it gets at the position. Conversely, the Bucs’ defense is ranked outside the top 20 in yardage and points allowed.

New Orleans is enduring a disastrous campaign. The Saints have already showcased two separate four-game losing streaks in 2025, and they are now halfway to their third. Much of Who Dat’s struggles have stemmed from an ineffective offense. Currently, NOLA’s 15.2 PPG is listed 30th in the NFL. Rookie signal caller Tyler Shough (36.5 QBR) is taking the snaps at this juncture. However, the Saints have gone 1-5 since implementing Shough.

Weather conditions in West Central Florida are forecasted to be wet and slick. With the way things are, that pushes me toward under 42.5 combined points in this contest. The under has been a consistent winner in games involving the New Orleans Saints. Of the Saints’ 12 games so far, they have failed to reach the total in nine (75%).

Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-105)

Where to Watch Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, MO
• Where to Watch: NBC/Peacock
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Spread: KC -3.5 (-104) | Total: 41.5 (-118/-104)
• Moneyline: HOU +152 | KC -180

Sunday Night Football of Week 14 will bring a contentious clash between the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) and the Houston Texans (7-5). With Arrowhead Stadium serving as the backdrop, both the Chiefs and Texans are essentially fighting for the last of their playoff chances.

If the campaign concluded today, neither Kansas City nor Houston would be a part of the postseason picture. Still, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving KC +120 odds (45.5% implied) to make the playoffs, while the Texans are yielding -154 odds (60.6% implied) in the same market. Naturally, those future figures will shift if the Chiefs can protect their kingdom in Week 14.

This AFC showdown will feature two top-10 defenses. Notably, Houston has held opponents to just 16.5 PPG, the NFL’s best mark right now. From there, Kansas City is surrendering only 19.3 PPG. All signs point to a dog fight in the cold.

Speaking of cold, freezing temperatures are forecasted for Sunday night’s game in KCMO. Once again, that influences me to take the under. I have the utmost respect for decorated quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes  (QBR) and C.J. Stroud (QBR), but the defenses on hand are operating at a higher level. The Texans are a top-five team when playing the run or the pass. Conversely, their offense is not the most potent. Houston is currently ranked 21st in scoring.

Both squads here have been profitable for under bettors. In the 24 total games involving either the Chiefs or Texans, the under has gone 16-7-1 (66.7%). I believe the trend continues in Kansas City amid blistering conditions.

Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-104)

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NFL Best Bets: Week 14 Top Picks

• Saints-Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-105)
• Texans-Chiefs Under 41.5 (-104)

Week 14 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!

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