NCAAF · 2 weeks ago

USC Trojans 2025 Preview: Outlook, Best Bets & Predictions

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

USC Trojans 2025 Preview: Outlook, Best Bets & Predictions

Lincoln Riley started his USC career 11-1 and 17-3 through 20 games. Since then, he’s gone 15-13 and 9-11 in his past 20 games. Season by season, his three Trojan teams have gone from 11-3 to 8-5 to 7-6. That’s not the direction you want your program going. The numbers guys liked USC’s 2024 better than their record and going into the 2025 season.

USC Trojans Snapshot

2024 Record: 7-6 (4-5); Big Ten Finish: 9th (tied)

SportsGrid B1G Power Rankings: 7

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 21

Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (4th Year) | Record: 81-24 | USC Record: 26-14

Offensive Coordinator: Luke Huard (1st Year, 4th Year w/ USC)

Defensive Coordinator: D’Anton Lynn (2nd Year)

Offensive coordinator Luke Huard continues his ascent after joining the staff as an analyst in 2022. Since then, he’s been the inside receivers coach before becoming the quarterbacks coach last year, and adding OC duties in 2025. Of course, this is Riley’s offense. The defense is unquestionably D’Anton Lynn’s, whom the Trojans opened up the checkbook to lure away from rival UCLA last offseason. He’s elite.

2025 Big Ten Previews: Ohio State | Penn State | Oregon | Michigan | Nebraska

USC Futures Odds (DraftKings)

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -160 | UNDER 7.5 +135

Conference Wins: OVER 5.5 -120 | UNDER 5.5 -110

Home Wins: OVER 5.5 +120 | UNDER 5.5 -150

National Championship Odds: +10000 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES +450 | NO -700

B1G Championship Odds: +1600 | Undefeated Regular Season: YES +2500

They are tied for 19th on the national championship totem pole according to DraftKings. Not where USC wants to be, but also higher than their preseason rankings.

In terms of their Big Ten championship odds, the Trojans rank fifth, and stand somewhat alone as there’s a big gap between them and both Michigan (+900) and Illinois/Nebraska (+3000). Making the College Football Playoff (+450) is a more realistic goal to achieve going into the season.

USC Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

Lincoln Riley got the right guy when he hired D’Anton Lynn away from UCLA to fix his defense. With Riley’s best teams at Oklahoma and USC, it was defense that limited their ceiling and cost them in big games. In 2023, they were among the worst Power 5 defenses in the country. Last season saw significant improvement across the board in Lynn’s first year in SoCal, no easy task on that side of the ball, which typically takes more time to improve than the offense can. They went from 105th in defensive SP+ to 48th. Impressive.

Beyond the numbers—10 fewer points allowed per game, 60 fewer yards allowed per game—it was a return to fundamental football, which the program had been lacking. Tackling was significantly improved, and miscommunication was substantially reduced, resulting in far fewer big plays. Somehow, Lynn’s defense finished first in limiting passing down explosives. This is far from a finished product, but it should be the best defensive line of the Riley era. Expect the defense, led by playmakers linebacker Eric Gentry and safety Kamari Ramsey, to take another step forward.

USC Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Depth could be a significant concern for the Trojans. They didn’t replace the loss of Miller Moss with an experienced passer, so if Jayden Maiava goes down, it could be true freshman Husan Longstreet. Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon are potentially stud receivers, but the departures of former five-stars Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson via the transfer portal hurts their depth. The offensive line also appears relatively thin. They took a hit this week when DJ Wingfield, who was stepping in for Emmanuel Pregnon at guard, was denied an extra year of eligibility, which was thought to be a formality.

Remember that defense I’m bullish on? Well, they did lose eight starters from last year’s unit. Between players returning from injury (Gentry), transfer portal additions, and younger players primed for bigger roles, the starting 11 should be fine. The questions come with the second units, particularly in the back seven. They are mostly building the roster the old-fashioned way, which is sound in the long term, but are they ready this season?

USC Breakout Player: EDGE Kameryn Fountain, Sophomore

A top-100 recruit per 247Sports Composite Rankings, Kameryn Fountain was the highest-rated high school player in their 2024 class. The true freshman saw action in eight games. He started the final four against Nebraska, UCLA, Notre Dame, and their bowl win over Texas A&M, and recorded 19 tackles, including 4.5 for loss, and two sacks, flashing the type of potential USC saw when they offered him a scholarship.

The Georgia native appeared headed towards a redshirt season early, and while injuries may have forced the team’s hand, Fountain improved with more playing time. He played 53 snaps and had a career-high five tackles in the Las Vegas Bowl. At 6’5” and 260 pounds, Fountain is expected to be a versatile piece with EDGE rusher as his primary position. The physical ability is there, and he’s showing the mental part isn’t too far behind.

USC X-Factor: The Transfer Portal Additions

Lincoln Riley didn’t go heavy into the transfer portal, but they did splurge on some of their additions to fill key spots on the team. For the defensive line to fulfill its promise, massive tackles from the SEC need to pay dividends. Kentucky transfer Keeshawn Silver (331 pounds) is expected to anchor the defensive line, with former UGA Bulldog Jamaal Jarrett (349 pounds) providing critical depth. Safety Bishop Fitzgerald and CB DJ Harvey are both expected to start, with Harvey slotted as CB1.

On offense, C J’Onre Reed is the projected replacement for Jonah Monheim. There’s a lot of excitement about junior college RB Waymond Jordan (NJCAA DI Football Offensive Player of the Year), while former New Mexico man Eli Sanders is coming off a 1,000-yard season (7.2 YPC). Two more transfers to keep an eye on, wideouts Zach Williams (potentially WR1 at Utah) and Prince Strachan, should help ease the losses of Branch and Robinson.

USC Schedule Analysis

SP+ SOS Rank: 20 | Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 20

The good news is that all of those new pieces will have time to adjust to their roles, and the Trojans should start the season 4-0, facing Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, and Michigan State. That’s when things start to get tough. USC plays at No. 12 Illinois, kicking off a stretch that includes three-straight ranked teams (+1.5 vs. No. 14 Michigan, +10.5 at No. 6 Notre Dame) to close out October.

Three of their five November games are also challenging, as the Trojans visit No. 7 Oregon (+13.5), with games against Nebraska and Iowa that won’t be gimmes. With five road games, including four where they could be underdogs, they need to improve on last year’s 1-4 mark away from the Coliseum. With no Penn State (last year’s only home loss) or Ohio State, this season’s schedule is more manageable but far from easy.

USC Best Bet, Long Shot & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

There are two ways of looking at their schedule. Presuming the 4-0 start, can the Trojans split their final eight games to get four more wins? Let’s assume losses to Oregon and Notre Dame, wins over Northwestern and UCLA at home. That leaves Illinois (R), Michigan (H), Nebraska (R), and Iowa (H) as toss-up-type games. Will the Trojans get at least two wins? Why not?

I like them to win eight games, with nine very possible. I buy into USC being better than their record in 2024, and if they can flip some of their close-game luck (3-5), 2025 will be a building block for an even better 2026. I still trust Riley to run an effective offense and Lynn defensively. Even better than -160, I like them OVER 5.5 conference wins (-120).

Even better than OVER 5.5 conference wins, I like OVER 5.5 home wins at +120. We’re talking Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Michigan State, Northwestern, and UCLA, leaving them needing a split against Michigan and Iowa. As bad as they were on the road last year, they were excellent at home. The logical path to eight overall wins involves securing six or seven at home (only one ranked team), rather than three on the road (against three ranked teams).