Ranking the Top 15 First-Time College Football Playoff Contenders

15. James Madison Dukes

The Dukes have a good team in the Sun Belt. They also have an early game at Louisville, which could bump them up the G5 ladder. They will probably need to run the table to make the CFP, but the path is lit.

James Madison’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +1300

1. Miami Hurricanes

Is this the year the Miami Hurricanes crack the field of the College Football Playoff? The Hurricanes bring in former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and have plenty of opportunities to score, resume-building wins (Notre Dame, Florida, and Louisville). They have two paths to the Playoff as well. They can win the ACC or make it as an at-large.

Miami’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +200

2. Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois has been the media darling this offseason as they come off a 10-win season in 2024. They have the returning production and the schedule to make some noise and win their way into an at-large bid. The Illini play host to Ohio State, USC and travel to Indiana and Washington for resume building opportunities.

Illinois’ Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +500

3. Iowa State Cyclones

The Big 12 is wide open again in 2025. Iowa State was so close to earning a berth in 2024 and are returning quarterback Rocco Becht. The Cyclones need to beat Kansas State in Week 0 and rival Iowa to have any chance at an at-large berth. Since the Big 12 is likely a one-bid league, the best path is to win a conference title.

Iowa State’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +950

4. South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina was on everyone’s mind during the CFP selection show. Many feel like they were snubbed. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers is back after a stellar freshman year. The Gamecocks have a schedule that could help them secure an at-large bid, with non-conference games against Virginia Tech and Clemson to start and end the season. South Carolina will also host Alabama and Oklahoma.

South Carolina’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +400

5. Ole Miss Rebels

Another SEC team who is mad about Indiana. The Rebels were also considered for an at-large bid last year, but fell short. They’ll be breaking in a new quarterback, and the schedule really doesn’t have a ton of opportunities to grab resume-building wins unless they win them all. Trips to Georgia and Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks will likely determine the Rebels’ fate.

Ole Miss’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +210

6. Baylor Bears

Baylor is one of the favorites in the wide-open Big 12, and that’s their path to their first CFP berth. They do play Auburn at home to open the season and have a trip to SMU the week after. Winning those two games may determine whether they have enough for an at-large bid.

Baylor’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +575

7. Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies have been close, but they have not yet punched their ticket. They won eight games last year and will have Marcel Reed at quarterback. The big matchups are a road trip to Notre Dame in Week 3 and road trips to LSU and Texas later in the year. The Aggies only play two home games after October 11th, as well.

Texas A&M’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +220

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders will test the theory of "if you pour enough money into something, it’ll work." Texas Tech donors have dumped a ton of cash at this team in hopes of making the CFP. The non-conference schedule has two cupcakes and Oregon State. Will that be enough for an at-large? The Red Raiders' hopes for a Big 12 title hinge on games at Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State. Money doesn’t always buy happiness.

Texas Tech’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +400

9. Florida Gators

It’s a little shocking that the Florida Gators have not made the College Football Playoff yet. DJ Lagway is back, and if he can stay healthy, he can power the Gators to the next level. They have huge opportunities with games at Miami, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, as well as home dates with Texas and Florida State. There are plenty of opportunities to get in without winning the SEC.

Florida’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +350

10. Utah Utes

Utah took a major step back last year to 5-7, but Kyle Whittingham’s program is as steady as they come. With their questions at quarterback answered, a schedule with a beatable Big Ten opponent (UCLA) on the road, along with a wide-open Big 12, 2025 may be the season Utah makes it.

Utah’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +500

12. Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Brohm’s team brings in Miller Moss from USC and their offense is always good. While they have to travel to Miami and SMU, the Cardinals get Clemson and Kentucky at home. They can win the ACC, but is there enough juice to make it as an at-large.

Louisville’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +350

13. Missouri Tigers

Missouri misses out on Texas, LSU, Florida, and Ole Miss, but gets to host Alabama, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. They lucked out in their SEC draw, and if they can knock off old rival Kansas in Week 2, they could have a clear path to the CFP. A road trip to Oklahoma on November 22nd could seal their fate one way or the other.

Missouri’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +725

14. Tulane Green Wave

Tulane added former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff late in the cycle, but they won’t apologize for that. His addition elevates an already dangerous AAC team who was going to be in contention for the conference title. They have massive opportunities against Power Four opponents Northwestern Duke and Ole Miss. The Northwestern and Duke games are at home too. Win and Tulane is in.

Tulane’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +750

15. James Madison Dukes

The Dukes have a good team in the Sun Belt. They also have an early game at Louisville, which could bump them up the G5 ladder. They will probably need to run the table to make the CFP, but the path is lit.

James Madison’s Odds to Make the 2025 CFP: +1300