NCAAF · 2 weeks ago

Oregon Ducks 2025 Preview: Outlook, Best Bets & Predictions

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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What a start to Dan Lanning’s coaching career, especially the past two seasons when the Ducks went 25-3. Their only two losses in 2024 came against Washington, the eventual national runner-up, and last season, Oregon finished their first season in the Big Ten undefeated before getting their comeuppance against Ohio State in the playoffs, a final moment that was hard to ignore.

Oregon Ducks Snapshot

2023 Record: 13-1 (0-0); Big Ten Finish: 1st (Big Ten Champs)

SportsGrid B1G Power Rankings: 3

A.P. Poll: No. 7 | Coaches Poll: No. 7 | SP+: No. 7

Head Coach: Dan Lanning (4th Year) | Record: 35-6

Offensive Coordinator: Will Stein (3rd Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Tosh Lupoi (4th Year)

DC Tosh Lupoi has Pac-12 roots, but like Lanning, cut his teeth in the SEC (five seasons at Alabama) before spending three years in the NFL. OC Will Stein has an excellent reputation with his QB development and is considered to be on the fast track to being a head coach.

2025 Big Ten Previews: Ohio State | Penn State | Michigan | USC | Nebraska

Oregon Futures Odds (DraftKings)

Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +155 | UNDER 10.5 -190

Conference Wins: OVER 7.5 +120 | UNDER 7.5 -150

Home Wins: OVER 5.5 -210 | UNDER 5.5 +170

National Championship Odds: +1300 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES -220 | NO +175

B1G Championship Odds: +360 | Undefeated Regular Season: YES +425 | NO -650

The sportsbooks project Oregon as a likely double-digit team. However, looking at the odds, ten is more likely than 11 or a repeat of 2024 with 12 wins. The Ducks are the third choice to win the Big Ten, behind Ohio State (+195) and Penn State (+220), much closer to the top two than the fourth choice, Michigan (+900). The betting numbers call this a three-horse race. They are ranked eighth in the odds for the National Championship Game winner, nestled just ahead of LSU (+1400) and behind Notre Dame (+1200).

Oregon Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The Ducks drew on their hefty checkbook in the offseason to fill key holes with top talent from the transfer portal. We have RB Makhi Hughes and S Dillon Thieneman among the top ten transfers entering the season, with OT Isaiah World ranked 11th on the list. Hughes and Thieneman have been studs at their previous stops, and World is a potential first-round pick at left tackle.

Other proven commodities include second-team All-Big Ten performers OG Emmanuel Pregnon and CB Theran Johnson, while OT Alex Harkey and DT Bear Alexander are projected as starters. That’s seven probable starters with five or six on several preseason All-Big Ten teams. Despite Oregon’s small class of just 11 commits, they are ranked second by SportsGrid, fourth by On3, and fifth by 247Sports.

Oregon Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Yes, they brought in some outstanding replacements via the transfer portal, but let’s not lose sight of how much the Ducks have lost from last season’s Big Ten Championship team, including a program-record 10 NFL Draft Picks. Gone are QB Dillon Gabriel, a 1,200-yard rusher, their top four receivers (including returning Evan Stewart, who is injured), four-fifths of their offensive line, and 11 of their top 15 tacklers, including all five starting defensive backs.

Even if they hit on most of their portal additions, there will be questions about depth and continuity. Center Iapani Laloulu is the lone starter back on offense, and 14 of 19 defenders to line up for 100-plus snaps must be replaced. The Ducks will have a new starting quarterback, throwing to a new tight end, and new receivers with four new offensive linemen blocking for them. Defensively, the entire secondary will be new. That’s a lot of pieces that need not only to work, but to work together.

Oregon Breakout Player: Tight End Kenyon Sadiq, Junior

OK, so their starting tight end isn’t entirely new. As a sophomore, Kenyon Sadiq had 24 receptions for 308 yards (12.8 PPG) and two touchdowns, both coming in the Big Ten Championship Game. With Terrance Ferguson (No. 46 pick) off to the NFL, the starting job is Sadiq’s. With all five players who had more receptions than him gone, the starting tight end should be a significant factor in their throw game.

We’re talking about a top-100 recruit (per 247Sports), who is 6’3”, 245 pounds, and athletic. Athletic enough to have 32 career rushing yards on six carries. It’s safe to presume that talk from OC Will Stein and QB Dante Moore about Sadiq getting the ball a lot in 2025 isn’t just talk. He’s a playmaker and should be a weapon as a pass catcher.

Oregon X-Factor: Quarterback

The Ducks are very similar to Ohio State in that they have a roster chock-full of highly touted players, but do they have the right quarterback? Yes, Dante Moore was a five-star recruit himself, but he struggled when he played as a true freshman for UCLA in 2023, especially at protecting the football. That’s not to say he hasn’t made great strides since then—he may have—but we don’t know. He needs to prove himself.

Other top programs have suffered quarterback problems, even with top recruits at the position, and no one is immune. Remember, Oregon’s success over the past two seasons was primarily due to Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel pulling the trigger. Nix was a fifth-year starter (1,466 career passes going into 2023) in his second season at Oregon, and Gabriel was in his sixth season (1,664 career passes going into 2024). Winning with Moore, 221 career attempts, will be a new challenge for Lanning and Stein.

Oregon Schedule Analysis

SP+ SOS Rank: 32 | Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 19

There’s no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule this season, but the Ducks must make the trip to Happy Valley, and overall will face a more demanding schedule than they did in 2024. For starters, Oregon is a 6.5-point underdog at Penn State, compared to being a 3.5-point underdog at home versus OSU in 2024.

The depth of the schedule is also more challenging. During the regular season, Oregon was favored in 11 games, all by at least 13.5 points. FanDuel currently has them as a 10.5-point favorite against Washington, an 11.5-point favorite against USC, and a 13.5-point favorite against Indiana, which doesn’t include a trip to Kinnick Stadium to face the Hawkeyes (no line), a notoriously tricky place to play. That’s at least five Big Ten games that could trip up the Ducks. The good news is that the out-of-conference is a cakewalk, and they should start 4-0, which will give them time to gel.

Oregon Best Bet, Long Shot & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

Playing the schedule game, Oregon will lose at Penn State, which leaves me with the question of whether they will win every other game on the schedule. With an unproven quarterback and so many new pieces needing to fit, I don’t have the confidence they will. The Ducks played three games decided by a field goal or less on their way to a 12-0 record, and frankly, were fortunate to survive all three. Last season, felt like their year.

Lanning’s fourth Oregon team will take a step back and maybe have less close-game luck, which will result in at least two regular-season losses, which still could translate into a second-straight playoff season. What I like even better is them going UNDER 7.5 conference wins at -150. Considering they play Montana State, Oklahoma State (4.5 wins over/under), and Oregon State (6.5 wins over/under), Oregon’s losses will come in the Big Ten. And if the Ducks were to drop a game to one of the other OSUs, I’d be even more confident in them losing at least two conference games.