NCAAF · 2 weeks ago

Michigan Wolverines 2025 Preview: Outlook, Best Bets & Predictions

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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After winning 40 games over three seasons, Michigan followed up its National Championship run with a disappointing 8-5 campaign. Sherrone Moore remains an unproven commodity, but he is entering his second season and is in a much better situation than he was in 2024 when Jim Harbaugh left the program at an inopportune time.

Michigan Wolverines Snapshot

2023 Record: 8-5 (5-4); Big Ten Finish: 7th (tied)

SportsGrid B1G Power Rankings: 4

A.P. Poll: No. 14 | Coaches Poll: No. 14 | SP+: No. 8

Head Coach: Sherrone Moore (2nd Year; 8th w/ UM) | Record: 9-5

Offensive Coordinator: Chip Lindsey (1st Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Wink Martindale (2nd Year)

At offensive coordinator, Chip Lindsey is experienced and an upgrade over the wet-behind-the-ears Kirk Campbell. At the same time, the grizzled Wink Martindale’s defense was significantly better at the end of the season than they were in Week 1. There’s cautious optimism that the coordinators can be a plus in 2025.

2025 Big Ten Previews: Ohio State | Penn State | Oregon | USC | Nebraska

Michigan Wolverines Futures Odds (DraftKings)

Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -170 | UNDER 8.5 +140

Conference Wins: OVER 6.5 -115 | UNDER 6.5 -115

Home Wins: OVER 4.5 -170 | UNDER 4.5 +140

National Championship Odds: +2800 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES +200 | NO -260

B1G Championship Odds: +900 | Undefeated Regular Season: YES +1200| NO -3000

Coming off a seven-win regular season, expectations are higher in Ann Arbor for 2025, although not quite at the levels of the latter Jim Harbaugh era. The Wolverines are tenth in terms of their national title odds and are behind only Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon in the race to win the Big Ten this season. I’m not predicting either, but if you’re looking for a big money payout, I like their odds to win the B1G much better than going undefeated in the regular season.

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

Despite losses to the NFL, Michigan will once again boast one of the best and deepest defenses in college football. The defensive line could easily go ten deep. There were times last season when Rayshaun Benny was outplaying the two future first-round picks at defensive tackle, and he will be complemented in the rotation by transfers Tré Williams (Clemson) and Damon Payne (Alabama). Seniors Derrick Moore and T.J. Guy are dynamic bookend starters at EDGE with depth behind them.

They are backed up by talented linebackers, Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausman, a pair of NFL-caliber athletes. Cornerbacks Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry overcame early-season lumps in 2024, and six safeties/nickels should see time, headlined by the return of Rod Moore. In the middle of the season, it appeared the Wink Martindale experiment had failed, but as he got his sea legs, the defense improved into the unit that shut down Ohio State and Alabama to close out the season. If the offense can keep them off the field, they will be more productive in 2025.

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Speaking of the offense…there are still a ton of question marks on that side of the ball. There will be a new starting quarterback, although that is a positive, likely a true freshman. (More on him, later.) How good is the offensive line? Last season’s performance was a far cry from the Joe Moore Award-winning unit. Donaven McCulley was a nice addition in the portal, but he must show he’s a No. 1 WR with no other proven pass catchers in the receiver room.

The 2024 offense was historically bad: ranked 131st in passing yards per game, 127th in yards per play, 98th in success rate, and 91st in Total QBR. There’s no doubt they will be improved this season, but will they be good enough, or even adequate, to contend for a playoff spot? A case can be made that they won’t. They scored fewer than 20 points in seven games (including wins over OSU and ‘Bama!).

Breakout Player: TE Hogan Hansen, Sophomore

The most obvious candidate is RB Jordan Marshall, but we’re going with another member of the Class of 2024. In limited duty as a true freshman, Hogan Hansen flashed the ability to be an impact player in the throw game. He hurdled over more experienced players in what was a talented tight end room to see the third-most action at the position (10 games, 13 targets) in what many expected would be a redshirt season.

Among his seven receptions, Hansen had two contested catches (tied for the team lead) and five first downs (tied for fourth). His 1.44 receiving yards per route were second only to first-round pick Colston Loveland, whose departure leaves an opportunity. Hansen projects as TE2 behind Marlin Klein, but don’t be surprised to see him push for reps, and the Wolverines often use two-tight end sets. By season’s end, expect Hansen to be among Michigan’s top weapons in their aerial attack.

Michigan X-Factor: Quarterback

We knew there would be a drop-off from J.J. McCarthy, but we didn’t realize just how far the quarterback play would plummet last season. Three quarterbacks combined to average 5.4 yards per pass with 13 interceptions to 12 touchdowns. Honestly, it was worse than those numbers even indicate. There was no confidence in the passing attack, and defenses stacked the line, daring the Wolverines to beat them through the air, which resulted in the inability to move the chains.

Enter Bryce Underwood and Mikey Keene (Fresno State). Underwood was the No. 1 overall recruit in the country and was set to leave Michigan’s backyard for the Bayou before a last-minute NIL push from Moore and company. It was an absolute coup, and the dual-threat with a pocket-passer’s frame and skill set has the talent to develop into the best quarterback in Michigan history. But he’s a true freshman. With 8,245 yards and 65 TDs at Fresno and UCF, Keene brings more experience than anyone on last season’s depth chart. While he would be an improvement, the hope is that the Underwood era begins sooner rather than later. How the QB performs will dictate both the floor and ceiling for Michigan.

Michigan Schedule Analysis

SP+ SOS Rank: 38 | Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 54

After playing four playoff teams (Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and Indiana), including two of the four national semifinalists, the Wolverines have just one team ranked in the Coaches Poll on the schedule (Oklahoma is the first team out and is ranked in the AP Poll). In 2024, they lined up as underdogs six times in the regular season, including three times by at least two touchdowns. This year, Michigan should be favored in nine or ten games. Currently, they are a 5.5-point underdog against Ohio State, their most challenging game on the schedule.

There’s no doubt the schedule is more manageable. However, it’s not a cakewalk either. In addition to OU (+2.5), Michigan has USC (-1.5), Nebraska (-3.5), and Washington (-10.5) on the schedule, with trips to Norman, Lincoln, and Southern California. Add to that an October game in Spartans Stadium (-8.5), and Michigan has four losable road games, among their six away from the Big House. Their six home games are the fewest since 1998, and the last time they failed to play consecutive games in Ann Arbor was 1937.

Michigan Best Bet, Long Shot & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 9.5 Wins

Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Michigan as the second-most improved team from 2024 (behind two-win Florida State), and they should be the team that makes the most significant jump in the Big Ten. The defense could be the best in the country, and the offense should be much better. They will win more than seven regular-season games. The question is, how many more?

The Wolverines are underdogs against Oklahoma in Norman and at home versus Ohio State. Outside of that, Michigan is projected to be favored in its remaining ten games. Mostly by double-digits, although they are currently small favorites at Nebraska and USC. That’s four very challenging games. But unless they lose them all—they’re tough but also very winnable—the Maize and Blue project to win at least nine games. If you’re worried about the OU game, take them over 6.5 conference wins (-115).