NCAAF · 1 week ago

College Football Week 1 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks Part II

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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We got off to a 2-1 start on Thursday night—don’t hate on those team total unders!—with one play tonight. We don’t love Saturday’s slate. As they say, when the betting public—sharps and squares alike—have weeks to wager, lines usually find their proper spot, leaving little value. But don’t fret! Here are four Big Ten plays for Saturday, even if none are B1G (they will come!).

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT)

PENN STATE -42.5 Nevada (DraftKings)

The Nittany Lions are the best team in the Big Ten, maybe college football, and the safest bet to make the College Football Playoff. Nevada finished in the Mountain West basement last season and is ranked 126th in returning production. Gone are 18 starters and OC Matt Lubick. They project as one of the worst teams in all of college football. Do I really need to make the case about how much better Penn State is?

This is about spot and motivation. This is supposed to be PSU’s year. You don’t think they’re pumped to get on the field? With FIU and Villanova up next before an off week, they’re not looking past their opener.

Yes, this is a monster number, but teams that are this big of a favorite in Week 1 cover the spread more often than not. And James Franklin is no stranger to running up the score. As a 48-point favorite, the Nittany Lions blew out Kent State 56-0 last season. In 2023, they handled Delaware 63-7 (-41.5) and Massachusetts 63-0 (41.5).

Just in case the Nittany Lions might feel overconfident, Franklin can show his players the tape of the Wolf Pack pushing future CFP team SMU 29-24 in Week 1 last season. That should get their attention.

A shutout wouldn’t surprise me, but with a Nevada team total of 6.5, where one freak play could beat me, I’d rather lay the 43.5 points.

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INDIANA -23.5 Old Dominion (FanDuel)

This could be the most anticipated home opener for the Indiana Hoosiers. Ever.

Coming off an 11-1 regular season and CFP appearance in Curt Cignetti’s first year, this program actually has some real juice going into 2025. The last time IU opened the season ranked was in 2021, and I could not wait to fade them. That is not the case this time around.

Cignetti is a cover machine, especially as a favorite. They went 9-2 as the favorite last season when Indiana won by at least 24 points seven times, including the first four games out of the gate.

Ranked 38th in returning production (over 60 percent on both sides of the ball), I see no reason to expect anything else in 2025. Where they lost key players, IU made excellent additions in the transfer portal, including QB Fernando Mendoza, RB Roman Hemby, and C Pat Coogan, who anchors an offensive line with three returning starters.

Mendoza is garnering first-round buzz, and Hemby adds the dimension of a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield. The defense returns three first-team All-Big Ten performers (both coaches and media).

Old Dominion, on the other hand, ranks 89th in returning production. They lost seven of eight running backs/wide receivers who had 20+ touches. Also gone are seven of their top eight defensive backs. How will the sustain drives or stop big plays by the Hoosiers?

SP+ has them ranked 103rd going into the season, which is the line where HC Ricky Rahne has had them consistently over the past four years.

A former Sun Belt coach himself, with key pieces on this roster from his time at James Madison, Cignetti’s team will not overlook the Monarchs. Cigs is a bit of a bully (although not afraid to take on the big boys), and in this context, we love it. He’s gonna smoke ’em!

WASHINGTON -21.5 Colorado State (FanDuel)

In his Mountain West preview, ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote, “CSU beat bad teams and lost to good teams.” And by ‘good teams,’ Connelly really meant SP+ top 90 teams! In four games against SP+ top 90 teams, the Rams went 0-4 with an average score of 37.8 to 12. In two games against P4 schools last season, Colorado State lost 52-0 at Texas (+35) and 28-9 against Colorado (+7.5), failing to cover either spread. They are 1-5 ATS against Power Conference teams over the past three seasons under Jay Norvell.

The Rams are ranked 86th in returning production, and SP+ ranks them 96th going into the season. Norvell brought in mostly small-school players through the portal, which could work in the Mountain West, but not against a team like Washington.

How do they slow down a Huskies offense with the electric Demond Williams Jr. pulling the trigger, throwing to Denzel Boston, and handing off to Jonah Coleman? Washington should be able to score at will and could have one of the most exciting offenses in 2025.

The gap when CSU has the ball could be even greater. I love the hiring of Ryan Walters as the new DC, and unlike Purdue, with one of the best cornerback duos in the country in place, he has the pieces he needs to play his style of football.

In Year 2 under Jedd Fisch, expect UW to make a similar leap like his Arizona team did, and it starts on Saturday night.

Northwestern-TULANE UNDER 46.5 (DraftKings)

Northwestern had one of the worst offenses in all of college football last season, and while there are some reasons for optimism, they will likely struggle to score more than 20 points in most games. Tulane’s defense isn’t elite, but it will have the edge when the Wildcats have the football.

On the flip side, the ‘Cats do have what should be a pretty good defense. They return both their defensive tackles and have an intriguing set of ends coming off the edge in Aidan Hubbard (6 sacks) and the aptly named Anto Saka, who is drawing some NFL buzz. Their leading tackler is back at linebacker, and the defensive backfield is experienced with upside. Sophomores Josh Fussell and Damon Walters really impressed when they cracked the starting lineup in the second half of 2024.

Like Northwestern, Tulane is breaking in a new quarterback. Losing stars like QB Darian Mensah and RB Makhi Hughes will not be easy to replace.

The Wildcats can hang with the Green Wave, but I have more confidence that this one will be a low-scoring affair (especially since we missed the best of the number on taking the points).