NCAAF · 1 week ago

College Football Week 1 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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We made it! Week 1 is here, and to quote former New York Jet Bart Scott, I can’t wait. Fortunately, we don’t have to with four Big Ten games tonight and two more on Friday before we get to College Football’s Saturday slate.

We’ll start with the weeknight games with Part 1 of this week’s B1G Bets. There’s also still time to wager on Big Ten futures before the season begins! Part II with our B1GBets for Saturday’s games will be out tomorrow!

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT)

Western Michigan UNDER 14.5 @FanDuel (-130)

We start with Friday night’s action, where two Big Ten teams take the field.

Western Michigan is rebuilding on offense, with only 26 percent of its production returning (128th overall in returning production). Michigan State is 16th in returning production with 62 percent of its defense back. Advantage, Sparty.

It appears WMU will be playing two quarterbacks tomorrow night. Do you think they couldn’t pick a starter because both are going to be really good? Unlikely.

This is a Broncos program that has played six Power Five opponents over the past three seasons and has failed to score more than 14 points in all six games (including four versus the B1G). They averaged 9.5 points per game in those defeats.

Going into East Lansing on Friday night of Week 1 against a Spartans program desperate for a quick start isn’t the ideal spot to turn that trend around.

This is also a Michigan State team that, even in down years, enjoys bullying the little guys when they come to Spartan Stadium. In the past three seasons, MSU has allowed 44 points in six games against non-P5 opponents (7.3 PPG), and held them all to 14 or less, including FAU to 10 points in Week 1 last season (yes, we were on that!).

My questions about Sparty are on the offensive side of the ball, especially against the top half of the Big Ten. Their defense should be solid, and WMU is a different animal. One, they should be able to lock down relatively easily.

B1G BET (1 UNIT)

RUTGERS -15.5 Ohio

It’s the first game of the 2025 Big Ten season—a standalone for two hours starting at 6:00—and you didn’t think Rutgers vs. Ohio would make my Week 1 card?

I like this Rutgers team (just not their schedule). Historically not known for their offense, the Scarlet Knights scored over 30 points seven times last season, including a 49-point performance against Akron in Week 2. QB Athan Kaliakmanis (18 TDs, 7 INTs) is back, as are four starters along the offensive line. They play mistake-free football and can be explosive. That’s right, I said it. Rutgers is explosive. Ian Strong (6’3”) and KJ Duff (6’6”) are big receivers who produce big plays—both averaged 15.7 YPC. They also added DT Sheffield (11 TDs in 2024) from North Texas, who is small but a speedster.

The defense also made some additions, as defensive ends Eric O’Neill and Bradley Weaver (formerly of Ohio) will improve their pass rush. The defense and special teams (a considerable edge Thursday night)—usually strengths of Greg Schiano’s teams—will be better in 2025.

While Rutgers ranks eighth nationally on Bill Connelly’s continuity table, Ohio is 94th. They survived a lot of turnover last season. Can they do it again? This time, they will have to do so with a new head coach, as OC Brian Smith was elevated after Tim Albin left for Charlotte (life in the MAC is tough). Ohio is rebuilding most of its offensive line and front seven, which can be scary when stepping up in competition early in the season, especially against a physical team like Rutgers.

In their last four games against non-P5 foes, RU has won by scores of 49-17 against Akron, 44-7 against Howard, 52-3 against Wagner, and 36-7 against Temple. More importantly, they covered three out of four, falling just short against Howard (-38). Over the past four seasons, Schiano’s team is 8-2 ATS when favored by at least six points. Jersey Boys don’t play.

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Buffalo UNDER 13.5 @FanDuel (-130)

Minnesota’s offense was bad last season, and it’s TBD if they will be much better in 2025. Their defense carried them to a bowl game a year ago and could do so again.

They are very stout in the trenches. Both starting defensive tackles are back, with 6’6”/285-pound EDGE Anthony Smith (6 sacks in 2024) ready to breakout as a starter. The Gophers are solid at linebacker with a deep group of safeties led by budding superstar, sophomore Koi Perich.

Their one potential weakness is at cornerback, and Buffalo doesn’t have the passing attack to exploit that vulnerability. With both teams breaking in new quarterbacks, expect to see a lot of running the ball in a lower-scoring game. Minnesota loves nothing more than controlling the clock, slowing down the tempo, and keeping the ball away from the opposition.

Over the past three seasons, P.J. Fleck’s teams have held non-P5 opponents to 40 points over six games, including three shutouts.

Miami (OH) UNDER 10.5 @BetMGM (-120)

A year after being ravaged by injuries on the defensive front, Wisconsin addressed its needs with substantial additions from the transfer portal. They are big and stout.

Linebackers Christian Alliegro and Tackett Curtis are two of the most proven new starters. Alliegro was second on the team with 66 tackles despite only three starts, and Curtis (27 tackles in 2024) made 40 tackles as a true freshman with USC two years ago. I’m excited to see what this duo can do.

Even with a non-existent pass rush, the Badgers still ranked 22nd in defensive SP+ last season. Expect this group to be better this year. A switch to Wisconsin football on the offensive side of the ball (bye bye Phil Longo!)—more running, less tempo—should also benefit their defense.

Miami (Ohio) is 129th (33 percent) in returning production, with the biggest hits coming on the offensive side of the ball, where only 15 percent of its production returns. They are projected to be good defensively, but well outside the top 100 and near the bottom of FBS football on offense. Head coach Chuck Martin is also notoriously conservative on fourth downs, which suppresses their scoring potential.

Even with an OK offense, the Redhawks managed just six points at Northwestern in last season’s opener (which we were also on!), and three at Notre Dame two weeks later. They will play to “keep it close” and not get embarrassed (covered as 27.5-point dog vs. ND), which plays into our hands.