NCAAF · 1 week ago

Big Ten Football Preseason Power Rankings By Tiers From PSU to Purdue

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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As we look ahead to the 2025 season, which gets underway on Thursday night, we rank the 18 Big Ten teams and break them down into tiers.

TIER I – THE FAVORITES

Having a proven quarterback who has as much upside as any of the newcomers puts Penn State at the head of the class. With the best roster in the conference top to bottom, Ohio State is not far behind.

1) PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

A.P. Poll: No. 2 | Coaches Poll: No. 3 | SP+: No. 4

Head Coach: James Franklin | Record: 101-42 (Overall: 125-57) | OC: Andy Kotelnicki | DC: Jim Knowles

If not this year, then when? Penn State returns a lot of talent from last season’s semifinal squad (207 returning starts per SP+ leads the B1G), especially on the offensive side of the ball (76 percent). Most importantly, QB Drew Allar is one of several returnees who many projected as an early entrant in the NFL Draft. It’s a similar model that led to national titles for Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024. Can PSU make it three Big Ten teams in a row?

I’m still not sold on James Franklin winning the “big one,” but let’s not forget what was being said about Ryan Day going into last year’s playoffs and Jim Harbaugh before that. The defense has never been the issue, and this team should have the best offense of the Franklin era, which is why I have the Nittany Lions atop my Big Ten power rankings even if the oddsmakers don’t. They have something Ohio State and Oregon (as well as several top-ten teams) don’t have: a proven quarterback.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +220 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 -105 | UNDER 10.5 -115

CFB Playoff Odds: -330 | National Championship Odds: +700

2) OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

A.P. Poll: No. 3 | Coaches Poll: No. 2 | SP+: No. 1

Head Coach: Ryan Day | Record: 70-10 | OC: Brian Hartline | DC: Matt Patricia

Technically, Ohio State is THE favorite. The defending champs aren’t just the team to beat in the Big Ten, according to the sportsbooks; they were also the co-favorite to win it all again (currently second to Texas). Considering the absolutely ridiculous accumulation of talent in Columbus, it’s easy to understand why. They have arguably the best player on both sides of the ball in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs.

The outstanding receiving corps welcomes the addition of pass-catching TE Max Klare from Purdue. Defensively, the back seven could be elite. But this team isn’t without question marks, starting with both coordinators and an unproven quarterback. The Buckeyes lost a significant amount of experienced talent to the NFL, more than usual, even for them. The ceiling is as high, but the floor feels a bit lower in 2025.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +200 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +120 | UNDER 10.5 -140

CFB Playoff Odds: -380| National Championship Odds: +600

TIER II – THE CHALLENGERS

The defending Big Ten champs are notch below Penn State and Ohio State going into the season, but there is no other program in the B1G besides the top two that can rival Oregon’s blue-chip laden roster. Not far behind is Michigan, which won the three previous Big Ten titles. In terms of four- and five-star recruits, they don’t stack up as many as the Ducks, but if anyone outside the top three wins the conference, the Wolverines have the ceiling to shock the world.

3) OREGON DUCKS

A.P. Poll: No. 7 | Coaches Poll: No. 7 | SP+: No. 7

Head Coach: Dan Lanning | Record: 35-6 | OC: Will Stein | DC: Tosh Lupoi

This is a very similar roster to Ohio State in that they have blue-chip talent (more transfers than OSU) up and down the roster, but will be breaking in a first-time quarterback, something Dan Lanning has never done before, as he’s had two of the most experienced starters in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel leading his offenses the past three seasons.

The Ducks lost a program-record ten players to the NFL Draft, must replace ten starters on offense, and around 14 players from their two-deep. To Lanning’s credit, he did an elite job of filling many of those vacancies with top-end talent from the portal, led by RB Makhi Hughes, S Dillon Thieneman, and OT Isaiah World, which should mitigate the dropoff the program would have seen in past eras of college football. All three cracked SportsGrid’s transfer portal rankings top 11.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +370 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +155 | UNDER 10.5 -190

CFB Playoff Odds: -220 | National Championship Odds: +1300

4) MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

A.P. Poll: No. 14 | Coaches Poll: No. 14 | SP+: No. 8

Head Coach: Sherrone Moore | Record: 9-5 | OC: Chip Lindsey | DC: Wink Martindale

I’m not sure the Wolverines are built to bounce back as Big Ten Champs, but there is certainly enough talent on this roster to make a return to the playoffs, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where there’s NFL-caliber talent on every level. It’s not a stretch to say they could have the best defense in college football. I was out on DC Wink Martindale at midseason last year, but the defense’s finish was undeniable.

Expect the offense to improve in 2025, which shouldn’t be difficult considering they were historically bad last season. The offensive line shows promise, and they will have an excellent one-two punch in the running game. However, they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. Bryce Underwood is considered by many to be the best QB prospect in years, but is still a true freshman, which means there will be mistakes.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +900 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -170 | UNDER 8.5 +140

CFB Playoff Odds: +200 | National Championship Odds: +2800

TIER III – CFP SLEEPERS

The 2025 Big Ten champion will not come from this group, but all four teams have the potential to compete for a College Football Playoffs spot if things break right. A hair separates this quartet, as this tier gave me the most trouble when ranking the teams. I wouldn’t argue against a four-way tie going into the season; it’s that close.

5) INDIANA HOOSIERS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 23

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti | Record: 11-2 (Overall: 130-37) | OC: Mike Shanahan | DC: Bryant Haines

With only eight starters back, Indiana will rely heavily on incoming transfers again, with former Cal QB Fernando Mendoza atop that list. How he goes will dictate IU’s floor/ceiling for 2025. RB Roman Hemby was another underrated addition, and former Notre Dame C Pat Coogan will anchor an offensive line that returns three starters.

The defense was elite last season, and EDGE Mikail Kamara, LB Aiden Fisher, and CB D’Angelo Ponds are the building blocks. DC Bryant Haines runs an impressive scheme that both suffocates the opposing team’s running game and limits big plays through the air. Do I believe they will make it back to the CFP? No, but too many people were dunking on them for the playoff loss to Notre Dame.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +3500 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 +115 | UNDER 8.5 -135

CFB Playoff Odds: +500 | National Championship Odds: +10000

6) IOWA HAWKEYES

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 25

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz | Record: 204-124 (Overall: 216-145) | OC: Tim Lester | DC: Phil Parker

For years, we’ve been wondering…imagine if Iowa had a good quarterback? Well, we might find out this season. Incoming transfer Mark Gronowski is a national champion, a prolific passer, and a dual-threat who adds another dimension or two to the stagnant Iowa offense. The buzz in Iowa City is that the Hawkeyes could have their best quarterback since Heisman runner-up Brad Banks. He is jumping from the FCS level, so we’ll reserve judgment until we see him in Big Ten play. Of course, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be a significant upgrade.

Three All-B1G-caliber O-linemen anchor the offense, while the trio of Aaron Graves, Ethan Hurkett, and Max Llewellyn ensures they are stout in the trenches on both sides of the ball. There are some significant losses defensively, but the Hawkeyes replenish from within as well as any defense in the country. How do you not trust DC Phil Parker, whose defenses have held opponents under 20 points per game for the past nine seasons?

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +3500 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 +120 | UNDER 7.5 -140

CFB Playoff Odds: +900 | National Championship Odds: +18000

7) USC TROJANS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 21

Head Coach: Lincoln Riley | Record: 26-14 (Overall: 81-24) | OC: Luke Huard | DC: D’Anton Lynn

It’s easy to dump on Lincoln Riley after the past two seasons, which include a 9-11 record in his past 20 games. The man can coach, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and he’s finally gotten the defensive coordinator right with Anthony Lynn, who transformed his unit in Year 1. Lynn might be my favorite coordinator in all of college football. I’d be more confident in the offense if not for questions along the offensive line.

The starting units could be good enough to make a run at the Big Ten Championship Game. However, will enough depth emerge to keep them in the race over the long haul? Considering their top-end talent, the Trojans have the highest ceiling of the four teams in this tier; however, their floor is probably lower.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +1600 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -175 | UNDER 7.5 +145

CFB Playoff Odds: 450 | National Championship Odds: +10000

8) ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

A.P. Poll: No. 12 | Coaches Poll: No. 12 | SP+: No. 27

Head Coach: Bret Bielema | Record: 28-22 (Overall: 125-80) | OC: Barry Lunney Jr. | DC: Aaron Henry

There’s a lot to like about Bret Bielema’s fifth Illinois team, which should be his best yet. They return a core four of QB Luke Altmyer, LT J.C. Davis, EDGE Gabe Jacas, and NB Xavier Scott, who were tempted by the NFL (and other programs) in the offseason. In all, a whopping 17 starters are back, ranking them at the top of the Big Ten and fourth nationally in terms of returning production.

Not only have all five offensive linemen and all five defensive backs returned, but so have both coordinators. How many programs can boast that level of continuity? While they overachieved in 2024 and are over-ranked in the preseason polls, I like this Illinois team more than I thought I would going into the season.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +3000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -175 | UNDER 7.5 +145

CFB Playoff Odds: +500 | National Championship Odds: +15000

TIER IV – TOP 25 POTENTIAL

Nebraska and Washington, both led by talented sophomore quarterbacks, might have thoughts of playoffs dancing in their heads going into 2026, but not this season. However, they both should make a bowl game and potentially push for a spot in the top 25 at some point this year.

9) WASHINGTON HUSKIES (TIER IV)

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 37

Head Coach: Jedd Fisch | Record: 6-7 (Overall: 23-28) | OC: Jimmie Dougherty | DC: Ryan Walters

Even with some of the worst trench play in the Big Ten (on both sides of the ball), Washington still managed to make a bowl thanks to one of the conference’s top offenses. Count me as a member of the Demond Williams Jr. fan club. Jedd Fisch is an excellent offensive coach with top-flight RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston, All-B1G performers. The offensive line could still be an issue, but it should improve.

I love the addition of DC Ryan Walters, who is coming into a good situation. More than anything, his scheme requires elite physical cover corners, and he has two in transfer addition, Tacario Davis (our sixth-ranked transfer for 2025), and returning starter Ephesians Prysock, a pair of 6’4” DBs. Last year’s team had to replace 20 starters, which made 2024 feel almost like Year 0 of the Fisch era. We expect the Huskies to be much better in his second season.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +5000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 +110 | UNDER 7.5 -130

CFB Playoff Odds: +900 | National Championship Odds: +25000

10) NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (TIER IV)

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 32

Head Coach: Matt Rhule | Record: 12-13 (Overall: 59-56) | OC: Dana Holgorsen | DC: John Butler

Let me let you in on a little-known secret. Matt Rhule’s teams make a significant improvement in Year 3, and this is his third season in Lincoln. Things are certainly trending in the right direction, but unless sophomore QB Dylan Raiola takes a huge step forward, I don’t see a significant leap coming in 2025. He certainly has the physical tools, and with portal additions like Dane Key and Nyziah Hunter, the necessary weapons are in place. If the o-line comes together, this offense could be terrific.

The defense, on the other hand, is set to take a step back, potentially a big one. The strength of the team last year was its defensive line, which appears to be a weak spot for the 2025 season. The front seven was gutted through graduation and the portal. Moreover, while replacing Marcus Satterfield as OC was an addition by subtraction, the loss of DC Tony White is a big one. The QB can change everything, but this program still feels a year away.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +3000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -150 | UNDER 7.5 +125

CFB Playoff Odds: +750 | National Championship Odds: +15000

TIER V – TO BOWL OR NOT TO BOWL?

From Wisconsin (brutal schedule) and Minnesota (should make a bowl) to Northwestern and Maryland (both longshots), there’s a wide range of teams in this tier. All have the potential to sneak into a bowl game. It would be surprising to see any team outside of the Gophers win more than seven games. Outside of Minnesota, I could see any of the other six teams fall short of a bowl as well. The schedules will play a significant role in their success in 2025.

11) WISCONSIN BADGERS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 38

Head Coach: Luke Fickell | Record: 13-13 (Overall: 76-38) | OC: Jeff Grimes | DC: Mike Tressel

After an unsuccessful two-year run with Phil Longo at the helm of the offense (who could have known?!?), the Badgers are returning to their roots with Jeff Grimes implementing his wide zone schemes, which will emphasize running the football and play at a slower tempo. Sound familiar? QB Billy Edwards Jr., who brings toughness and the ability to run the football, is an adequate stopgap. An offense that has gone from average to bad should be average again.

The defense has some upside. CB Ricardo Hallman can flat-out cover, and linebackers Christian Alliegro and Tackett Curtis are ready for big seasons. They were good overall in 2024, but struggled to stop the run. It appears they’ve addressed that via the transfer portal. The missing ingredient to rebounding to top-ten defense status is an edge rusher, which used to be a staple of Wisconsin’s elite defenses. The schedule is rather unforgiving.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +20000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 +130 | UNDER 7.5 -155

CFB Playoff Odds: +3000 | National Championship Odds: +50000

12) MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 40

Head Coach: P.J. Fleck | Record: 58-39 (Overall: 88-61) | OC: Greg Harbaugh Jr. | DC: Danny Collins

This is a tough Minnesota team to pin down. Much of P.J. Fleck’s success has been in retention and player development. This season’s team has some upside, but to reach that, the Gophers will need several newcomers to make an immediate impact. Three potentially damaging question marks are quarterback, offensive line, and cornerback.

There’s definitely buzz about big-armed redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey at quarterback, and who doesn’t love running back Darius Taylor? They didn’t run the ball at vintage Minnesota levels, so some upheaval along the O-line may be what this offense needed. Defensively, they are stout upfront, where they return both tackles and stud EDGE Anthony Smith. The safety room is deep and talented, led by true sophomore Koi Perich, who might be the best player in college football that the average fan hasn’t heard of.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +10000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 +150 | UNDER 7.5 -180

CFB Playoff Odds: +1400 | National Championship Odds: +40000

13) RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 47

Head Coach: Greg Schiano | Record: 94-101 | OC: Kirk Ciarrocca | DC: Robb Smith & Zach Sparber

Did you ever think that Rutgers’s best Big Ten season (first-time to win four B1G games), which matched the high mark of seven regular-season wins since joining the conference, would come off the backs of their offense? They lost three games in which they scored 30 points and could have easily finished 10-3 with a winning conference record. Back is QB Athan Kaliakmanis (better than you think!) and one of the B1G’s most experienced offensive lines. With playmakers on the perimeter, this offense should be better in 2025.

The defense should also be improved. They’re solid at linebacker with returnees. Greg Schiano and his defensive staff were most aggressive in adding cornerbacks and defensive linemen via the transfer portal. Group of Five edge rushers Eric O’Neill and Bradley Weaver—21.5 sacks and 38.5 tackles for loss for James Madison and Ohio—could really be difference makers.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +25000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 -140 | UNDER 5.5 +120

CFB Playoff Odds: +2500 | National Championship Odds: +80000

14) UCLA BRUINS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 50

Head Coach: DeShaun Foster | Record: 5-7 | OC: Tino Sunseri | DC: Ikaika Malloe

Be honest—you thought DeShaun Foster and the Bruins (wins over B1G bowl teams, Nebraska, Iowa, and Rutgers) were going to be a much bigger disaster than they turned out to be? They lost more NFL talent than you’d think from a five-win team (tied for 12th per Phil Steele), mainly on the defensive side of the ball. How they replace those losses will dictate if they can match or exceed last season’s results.

Foster not only has a full season under his belt, but a full offseason. Remember, he wasn’t named head coach until mid-February. The coaching staff is now his. Foster retained Ikaika Malloe, who was very impressive in his first season as DC, and I like the hire of OC Tino Sunseri. Then, of course, there was the addition of Nico Iamaleava over the summer. The Iamaleava- Sunseri combo will elevate the offense in 2025.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +20000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 +125 | UNDER 5.5 -150

CFB Playoff Odds: +2500 | National Championship Odds: +40000

15) MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 65

Head Coach: Jonathan Smith | Record: 5-7 (Overall: 39-42) | OC: Brian Lindgren | DC: Joe Rossi

I’m sure Spartans fans are hoping for a quick turnaround, but I don’t see it. It’s Jonathan Smith’s second season coaching at Michigan State and in the Big Ten, which brings some familiarity. Talented but highly inconsistent quarterback Aidan Chiles is back. He has some weapons in particular, sophomore WR Nick Marsh, who looks like a future pro, and pass-catching TE Jack Velling. If Chiles builds on a better second half from last season, it’s MSU’s best chance to make a bowl game.

They made several additions via the transfer portal to bolster their offensive line and a pass rush that produced just 19 sacks in 2024. I’m not convinced that the additions were of high quality and will do more than marginally improve those two key units in the trenches. This program is still in rebuild mode.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +12000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 -140 | UNDER 5.5 +120

CFB Playoff Odds: +3000 | National Championship Odds: +40000

16) NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 86

Head Coach: David Braun | Record: 12-13 | OC: Zach Lujan | DC: Tim McGarigle

I think I’m higher than most on this Northwestern team. The foundation is in place for the defense to excel—featuring proven defensive tackles, a pair of edge rushers, and depth behind them along the front four. The secondary is experienced, with a pair of rising sophomores in CB Josh Fussell and S Damon Walters, who appear to be future stars.

The room for growth is on the offensive side of the ball, where they were abysmal, primarily due to the lack of a threat when throwing the football. Enter strong-armed transfer Preston Stone. The former SMU passer is a significant upgrade, and he joins an already strong backfield. The key will be an offensive line that features a potential high-draft pick at left tackle in Caleb Tiernan, along with some intriguing options.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +30000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 3.5 -220 | UNDER 3.5 +180

CFB Playoff Odds: +20000 | National Championship Odds: +100000

17) MARYLAND TERRAPINS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 67

Head Coach: Mike Locksley | Record: 33-41 (Overall: 35-67) | OC: Pep Hamilton | DC: Ted Monachino & Aazaar Abdul-Rahim

Not many programs lost as much production as the Terps (107th in returning production). Maryland must replace their quarterback, leading rusher, top two wideouts, top two tight ends, and ten starters on defense. In all, they return only four starters after seeing six Terps drafted, the most since 1986! They do rely heavily on high school recruiting, which leans into Mike Locksley’s strength. However, they don’t recruit at that high a level.

Maryland will rely on several young, unproven players who will be thrust into prominent roles, whether they are ready or not. Including likely QB1 true freshman Malik Washington. Did I mention they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball? There is talent in College Park, and the Terps have the highest variance among the schools in this tier. This team is probably a year away from serious bowl contention.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +50000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 4.5 +110 | UNDER 4.5 -130

CFB Playoff Odds: +6000 | National Championship Odds: +100000

TIER VI – A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN

In Year 1 of the Barry Odom era (who I believe was a good hire), the Boilermakers are in a league of their own, and not in a good way. Even the biggest Purdue homer would have a tough time finding a path to a bowl in 2025.

18) PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 100

Head Coach: Barry Odom | Record: 0-0 (Overall: 44-33) | OC: Josh Henson | DC: Mike Scherer

Purdue lost their three best players in the transfer portal: our No. 8 (Dillon Thieneman), No. 18 (Max Klare), and No. 31 (Will Heldt) ranked transfers to Ohio State, Clemson, and Oregon. That’s high-end talent. Also gone are their quarterback, entire offensive line, top three wideouts, and top 14 tacklers from 2024. Why did RB Devin Mockobee return?

The Boilermakers lost over 50 players to the transfer portal and added over 50. This isn’t a rebuilding program. With one returning starter, it’s an expansion team. Now you can say, they lost their final 11 games with those players. They can lose 11 without them. In the long term, the monster overhaul might be the best thing for Barry Odom and company. However, 2025 figures to see Purdue in the B1G basement once again.

FUTURES ODDS:

B1G CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: +50000 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 2.5 -210 | UNDER 2.5 +170

CFB Playoff Odds: +20000 | National Championship Odds: +200000