NCAAF · 1 week ago

Big Ten Football Futures Season Win Total Predictions: Top 8 Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Call me a homer, but I’m pretty bullish on the Big Ten this season. There are eight, maybe nine teams that should be ranked. And I’m not the only one! ESPN’s SP+ (Bill Connelly) has four Big Ten teams in the top eight, seven in the top 25, and 12 in the top 40. The conference is strong at the top and as deep as it’s ever been.

BIGBETS REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS

MICHIGAN OVER 8.5 REGULAR SEASON WINS (-170 @DRAFTKINGS)

With a much more manageable schedule (Texas, Oregon, Indiana out; Oklahoma, Maryland, Purdue in), Sherrone Moore’s second season should go smoother. Now with a true freshman at quarterback, there will undoubtedly be some bumps along the road, but if Bryce Underwood is half as good as the hype, he will be a significant upgrade over their quarterback play from last season.

The offense will be better. How could it not? Potentially much better. The defense will be elite again and could be as tough as any in the country to score on. Once Wink Martindale settled in Michigan held Indiana to 20 points, Ohio State to 10, and Alabama to 13 to close out the season. That was with an offense addicted to giving the ball back to the other team.

They project as the favorite in ten games (by over eight points in eight games). Last season, they were favored in six games and were underdogs by over two touchdowns three times.

The price on this has gotten a bit hefty (-170). I would consider taking the Wolverines to win 10+ games, but at +140, why not just bet them to make the College Football Playoffs +210 (FanDuel)? Can you imagine a ten-win Michigan team being left out of the CFP?

IOWA OVER 7.5 REGULAR SEASON WINS (+130 @FANDUEL)

Six of Iowa’s best players come from the trenches, with three All-B1G caliber performers on both the offensive and defensive lines. That’s a great foundation to build on. They will have to find replacements for the back seven, but I am trusting Phil Parker, who has orchestrated defenses that have limited opponents to fewer than 20 points per game for nine consecutive years. The special teams will be elite again and win them a game or two.

The biggest reason for optimism is the addition of quarterback Mark Gronowski, who was a winner and dual-threat on the FCS level. I’m not going to pretend to have scouted him with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, but those in the know are optimistic. I love that he can make things happen with his legs. Even with a below-average quarterback, the Hawkeyes could have gone 11-1 last season.

The schedule is more demanding, as Iowa hosts three ranked teams: Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon, with road games at Iowa State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, USC, and Nebraska. But we don’t need them to go 11-1, 10-2, or even 9-3. Kirk Ferentz’s teams have won at least eight games in seven of the past nine full seasons (won at least seven in 11 straight).

WASHINGTON OVER 7.5 REGULAR SEASON WINS (+110 @DRAFTKINGS)

No team gave away more games than the Huskies last season, which was a significant factor in their 1-3 record in one-possession games. The special teams were almost Nebraska-level bad, and the offensive line was a mess. Oh, and Jedd Fisch had to replace 20 starters from the previous season. They somehow still managed to make a bowl game.

The offensive line remains a work in progress, but it is expected to improve. I love the trio of QB Demond Williams Jr., RB Jonah Coleman, and WR Denzel Boston. With a second season in Fisch’s system, the Huskies will have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten.

The defense needs to be rebuilt, but they did a nice job in the portal with key additions like Tacario Davis, and have players returning from injury ready for bigger roles (see, EDGE Zach Durfee). The hire of Ryan Walters was brilliant, so I don’t believe the defense will take much of a step back, if any.

Husky Stadium is a tough place to visit, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them knock off Ohio State or Oregon. Other than a trip to Ann Arbor, Washington’s other four road games are against teams projected to miss a bowl game. I’m bullish on the Huskies, especially at plus money.

OHIO STATE UNDER 10.5 REGULAR SEASON WINS (-140 @DRAFTKINGS)

For the first time, I’m taking my shot at the Buckeyes and betting against them going into the season. Why? They have a first-time starting quarterback, lost both critical coordinators (Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles, who went to PSU), and a record-tying 14 players to the NFL Draft. That’s a lot. Even for Ohio State. Still damn good, but not as stacked as last season.

In addition, they face a deeper schedule. But aren’t they favored in every game (which is different from being favored to win every game)? Yes, but they were also in 2024. Last season, OSU was favored by double-digit points ten times. This season, they have three games in which they are favored by 5.5 or less (-2.5 vs. Texas, -3.5 at Penn State, -5.5 Michigan). In addition, the Buckeyes were favored by at least 19.5 points nine times last season. This year’s schedule features five games with a spread of less than 14 points (-13.5 at Washington and at Illinois). It’s the most losable slate of games we’ve seen on their docket in some time.

Obviously, this is still an extremely talented roster that can compete with anyone in college football. Here’s the thing… they can match 2024’s ten regular-season wins, and depending on what they do in the CFP, OSU can have a great season, and we can still cash this ticket!

MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 5.5 REGULAR SEASON WINS (+120 @DRAFTKINGS)

With Michigan and Penn State coming to East Lansing, as well as road games against USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa, 6-6 is the ceiling for Sparty in 2025. MSU faces six of the B1G’s top nine teams, doesn’t get to play Northwestern or Purdue, with Boston College being a potentially loseble out-of-conference game.

Aidan Chiles is a talented kid, but he needs to cut down on mental mistakes, including turnovers and holding onto the ball too long. Unless the offensive line makes an unexpected leap, Chiles will probably feel the need to carry the offense.

Yes, he threw just three interceptions in the final seven games, but MSU went 2-5 over that stretch and scored more than 17 points twice, including 24 points against Purdue (the fewest points Purdue allowed in 11 FBS games). Was that progress? One of the worst Power 4 offenses got worse.

Defensively, they lose seven starters (out of 14 starters lost) and don’t have an obvious addition at edge rusher after recording 19 sacks all of last season. With their schedule, I’m not ready to trust so many transfers from lower levels at key positions of need. Making a bowl will have to wait another season.

BIGBETS CONFERENCE WIN TOTALS

PENN STATE OVER 7.5 CONFERENCE WINS (+130 @BET365)

Bottom line: this is James Franklin’s best team. Period. With Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, and Kaytron Allen all back, the Nittany Lions are primed to make a serious run at a national title. The offensive line might be the best he’s had, and the defense, as always, is top-tier.

He got the right OC last season when they hired Andy Kotelnicki, and this offseason, they stole Jim Knowles from Ohio State. Those are championship-caliber coordinators. Look, I’m not here to convince you on their Natty odds—I’m not sold myself.

You don’t have to believe in Frankin to back this bet. PSU has 34 wins over the past three seasons and is 34-2 as a favorite, including 27-0 when favored by at least six points. They will be favored in 11 of 12 games this year, and the closest spread is -6.5 when they host Oregon on September 27th, after Dante Moore has been “tested” by Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, and Oregon State.

PSU is priced at -105 on the OVER 10.5 regular-season wins. For the Nittany Lions to reach 11 wins, they have to win eight Big Ten games. That’s math. And the odds to win OVER 7.5 conference games are +130. Let’s go!

Looking for a long shot? Penn State Undefeated Regular Season (+450 @ DraftKings) looks juicy.

OREGON UNDER 7.5 CONFERENCE WINS (-135 @BET365)

Like OSU, Oregon lost too much talent to assume they’ll be able to run it back at the same level. They saw a program-record ten players selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. Yes, they crushed it in the portal with top-end talent, but they will be relying on an unproven quarterback for the first time under Dan Lanning.

If they can win ten games and make it back to the playoffs with 18 new starters (ten on offense), that’s an excellent season for the Ducks, and they will still go UNDER their number. Remember, last season’s 12-0 Ducks beat Boise State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin by three points or less. They just as easily could have lost all three games.

I have Oregon losing at Penn State, where they are 6.5-point underdogs, the largest margin under Lanning since his first game as headman against Georgia. Can we find one more loss? With games against Indiana, at Iowa, vs. USC, and at Washington, the answer is yes, and most likely in conference play.

Their six most challenging games come against Big Ten foes, so why wouldn’t I take UNDER 7.5 conference wins at -135 rather than UNDER 10.5 wins at -190? Let’s say they lose to Oklahoma State or Oregon State (which is highly unlikely); that bodes well for our ticket at this price.

BIGBETS HOME WIN TOTALS

USC OVER 5.5 HOME WINS (+125 @DRAFTKINGS)

The Trojans play seven home games in 2024, starting with Missouri State and Georgia Southern. They also host Michigan State, Northwestern, and UCLA (-9.5). I expect those to all be over a touchdown and potentially double-digit spreads by the time kickoff comes. That leaves games against Michigan (+1.5) and Iowa. Can they win one? Considering how much trouble traditional Big Ten teams have had traveling to the West Coast—both last season and historically—that seems to be a safe bet.

Then there’s the value. The Trojans are +125 to reach six home wins, compared to -175 to go OVER 7.5. If they don’t win at least six home games (giving them no more than five), USC would need to win two road games out of four against No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Oregon, No. 12 Illinois, and Nebraska (assuming a win at Purdue) to reach eight overall wins.

Lincoln Riley’s teams have performed much better at home. Remember, this is a USC team that went 1-4 on the road last season, with their two home losses coming against CFP finalist Notre Dame (who had two pick-sixes!) and semifinalist Penn State (in overtime).

I could see the Trojans going OVER 5.5 home wins and UNDER 7.5 regular-season wins, but not the other way around — and I’m getting +125 instead of laying -175? Am I dreaming? Someone pinch me.