NCAAF · 2 weeks ago

Penn State Nittany Lions 2025 Preview: Outlook, Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Penn State and James Franklin broke through in 2024—sort of (more on that later)—as the Nittany Lions pushed undefeated Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game and made the semifinals in the College Football Playoffs, notching a pair of playoff wins. It was the best season of the Frankin era. Their 34 wins over three years are the most in program history.

Penn State Nittany Lions Snapshot

2024 Record: 13-3 (8-1); Big Ten Finish: 2nd

SportsGrid B1G Power Rankings: 1

A.P. Poll: No. 2 | Coaches Poll: No. 3 | SP+: No. 4

Head Coach: James Franklin (12th Year) | Record: 125-57 | PSU Record: 101-42

Offensive Coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki (2nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Jim Knowles (1st Year)

A key factor in last season’s success was a more efficient and explosive offense. A lot of that credit goes to Andy Kotelnicki, who sprinkled some creativity on PSU’s playbook. When DC Tom Allen departed after one season, Franklin was able to lure Pennsylvania native Jim Knowles away from rival Ohio State. One can argue that the Nittany Lions have the best coordinator duo in college football.

2025 Big Ten Previews: Ohio State | Oregon | Michigan | USC | Nebraska

Penn State Futures Odds (DraftKings)

Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 -105 | UNDER 10.5 -115

Conference Wins: OVER 7.5 +115 | UNDER 7.5 -145

Home Wins: OVER 6.5 +105 | UNDER 6.5 -135

National Championship Odds: +700 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES -330 | NO +250

B1G Championship Odds: +220 | Undefeated Regular Season: YES +450 | NO -700

Penn State is second to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship odds, likely in part because the Nittany Lions visit Columbus this season. They are third in the National Championship odds heading into 2025, trailing only Ohio State and Texas. As you can expect, the sportsbooks have them as a likely CFP team, with their undefeated odds potentially intriguing.

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

We just finished telling you that 2024 was the best of the Franklin era, and the 2025 team looks like the most-stacked roster PSU has had since he’s been the headman. Like Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State last season, the Nittany Lions had numerous players who could have made the leap into the NFL. Instead, they decided to return for their senior seasons.

Starting with Drew Allar. Penn State has something that other national title contenders, such as Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Alabama, don’t—a proven commodity at quarterback. In addition to Allar, star running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and four starters are back on the offensive line. The team also addressed its biggest weakness in the portal with the additions of receivers Devonte Ross, Trebor Pena, and Kyron Hudson. The defense has playmakers at all three levels.

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Even with so much production coming back, they did lose some key pieces and depth on defense. All-everything edge rusher Abdul Carter is irreplaceable, but he’s just one of nine defenders among the 17 who had 300-plus snaps in 2024, who aren’t back. That’s a lot of depth to replace, especially in the trenches, where only two of the six defensive linemen who played at least 300 snaps return.

Think about some of the issues Jim Knowles had as a DC at OSU. There weren’t many, but at times his defense could be run on, something that has also hurt PSU when stepping up in competition. They’re a bit light at linebacker, where speed trumps might. Couple that with only one proven defensive tackle, making a strong physical running game potentially their kryptonite in 2025.

Penn State Breakout Player: TE Luke Reynolds, Sophomore

Many expect senior Khalil Dinkins to take over for Tyler Warren as Penn State’s starting tight end. Considering Warren had 104 receptions, there will be more than enough to go around, where the Nittany Lions could have two tight ends break out in 2025. Especially considering how much Andy Kotelnicki likes to use his tight ends. Even with Warren’s prolific production, Dinkins and Luke Reynolds combined for 25 catches in reserve roles.

While nine receptions might not be a lot to go on, let’s remember that in Warren’s first two years on campus, he had five catches and ten in his third season. Nine grabs for a true freshman tight end is uncommon. So is a five-star rating, which Reynolds received from 247Sports, as a member of the 2024 recruiting class. He averaged 12.3 YPC, scored his first touchdown, and even added a 32-yard run on a fake punt to ice Penn State’s win at Minnesota. The former high school quarterback (sound familiar?) stands 6’4” and tips the scales at 250 pounds. His size/athleticism combo makes him a dangerous weapon in the throw game.

Penn State X-Factor: Big Game James

Remember when I said James Franklin “sort of” broke through in 2024? Well, as good as last season was, they went 0-3 against the three most formidable opponents they faced: Ohio State at home, Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Notre Dame in the CFP Semis. Doubters will point to the team’s soft playoff wins: SMU was a borderline entry, and they lucked out with a Group of 5 opponent, Boise State, in the quarterfinals.

To say, in 2024, PSU won the games they were supposed to and lost their most challenging games, wouldn’t be incorrect. This has been Franklin’s modus operandi. Franklin is 1-10 against Ohio State. Over the past three seasons, the Nittany Lions are 34-2 as a favorite, including 27-0 when the spread is six points or greater. They are 0-6 as underdogs. We know what this season is about for Penn State…it’s now or never.

Penn State Schedule Analysis

SP+ SOS Rank: 29 | Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 37

The regular season schedule is mostly manageable, with a trio of cupcakes as their out-of-conference games: vs. No. 122 in SP+ Nevada (-43.5), No. 128 in SP+ FIU, and FCS Villanova. They get AP No. 3 Ohio State (road) and AP No. 7 Oregon (home) but miss the following three teams (Michigan, USC, and Illinois) in the B1G’s championship odds rankings.

There could be some challenges with a trip to Iowa (-10.5) and a visit from No. 20 Indiana (-16.5), but all in all, PSU will be the underdog once, +3.5 at OSU, and will be favored by less than 10 points once, -6.5 versus Oregon. The schedule is set up for another double-digit win season.

Penn State Best Bet, Long Shot & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

Everything is pointing towards this being Penn State’s year. From retaining top-end talent a la Michigan and Ohio State, to having a proven quarterback who has been through the challenges and still has some upside, to an excellent one-two punch at coordinator. This season is about really getting over the hump, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Even if the Nittany Lions don’t, we don’t believe they will take a step back and view another 11-1 regular season campaign as the most likely outcome. However, we prefer their odds of winning over 7.5 conference games at +115. Let’s assume PSU goes 3-0 out of conference. To reach 11 wins, they would need to win eight conference games. I wasn’t a math major, but I know enough that +115 is better than -105 for the same outcome.