NCAAF · 3 weeks ago

Ohio State Buckeyes 2025 Preview: Outlook, Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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While Ohio State lost its fourth straight to Michigan, Ryan Day mostly got the monkey off his back when the Buckeyes ripped through the College Football Playoffs to win the National Championship.

Ohio State Buckeyes Snapshot

2024 Record: 14-2 (7-2); Big Ten Finish: 4th

SportsGrid B1G Power Rankings: 2

A.P. Poll: No. 3 | Coaches Poll: No. 2 | SP+: No. 1

Head Coach: Ryan Day (7th Year; 9th w/ OSU) | Record: 70-10

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Hartline (3rd Year; 9th w/ OSU)

Defensive Coordinator: Matt Patricia (1st Year)

Last season’s doubts at head coach (despite his stellar record) are replaced by coordinator questions. Brian Hartline isn’t new to the OC position, but Chip Kelly was running the show in 2024, and it’s fair to ask why Day was hesitant to hand over play-calling duties before now, while very few believe the Matt Patricia hire was inspired.

2025 Big Ten Previews: Penn State | Oregon | Michigan | USC | Nebraska

Ohio State Futures Odds (DraftKings)

Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +120 | UNDER 10.5 -140

Conference Wins: OVER 7.5 -135 | UNDER 7.5 +105

Home Wins: OVER 5.5 -210 | UNDER 5.5 +170

National Championship Odds: +550 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES -380 | NO +280

B1G Championship Odds: +195 | Undefeated Regular Season: YES +400 | NO -600

The Buckeyes are the favorite to win the Big Ten and are tied with Week 1 opponent Texas for the shortest odds to win the National Championship. Typically, the Natty favorite has even shorter odds than +550 going into the season. They are also the only Big Ten team that has to lay (-145) money as potential “Big Ten Conference Championship Game Finalists.” The sportsbooks are bullish on the Bucks.

Ohio State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

History, for starters. Day is 70-10! Excluding the COVID-shortened season, OSU has won at least 11 games in 12 consecutive years and finished in the top 10 in ten straight (11 counting 2020). There’s no more consistent program in college football, especially at the top.

Then there’s the talent. Elite talent. Day has stacked top recruiting classes on top of top recruiting classes. The roster is littered with 4- (55 by Eleven Warriors’ count) and 5-star (12) players coming out of high school, led by wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, arguably the best offensive and defensive players in college football. Joining Smith are Carnell Tate, WR1 on most teams, Brandon Innis, and Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare to form a lethal group of pass catchers. No one doubts Hartline’s ability to coach up this group, which is college football’s best.

Ohio State Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

They lost a lot from last season’s team. Two stud running backs (both taken in the second round) and offensive linemen (both taken in the first round), the entire starting defensive line, and quarterback Will Howard were among the record-tying 14 draft picks. Because so many players returned for their senior campaigns in 2024, the Buckeyes are hit harder in 2025 than in most seasons, even for a program that reloads year after year. There has to be a drop-off in the running game, with questions in the trenches on both sides, especially the interior of the defensive line, which lacks experience and depth.

The losses don’t stop with the players, as Day must replace both Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles, two of the best coordinators in college football. Not only did OSU lose Knowles, but they lost their DC to rival Penn State, one of their biggest challengers in the Big Ten and nationally. The Buckeyes had their worst offensive season in recent memory when Brian Hartline was the primary OC in 2023, and Matt Patricia’s star has been sinking for nearly a decade now. Would they have won the national championship last season with Hartline and Patricia running the offense and defense instead of Kelly and Knowles? I’m not so sure.

Ohio State Breakout Player: EDGE Kenyatta Jackson, Senior

With four new starters along the defensive line, at least three of whom will be elevated from backup roles in 2024, it’s the most logical position group to find multiple breakout candidates (also see Eddrick Houston and Caden Curry). Kenyatta Jackson Jr. was a top 100 recruit in 2022 and had to bide his time behind JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, who hung around Columbus longer than expected. He recorded a career-best 16 tackles in 2024 and has three combined sacks over the past two seasons.

According to reports, Jackson has shone in training camp leading up to the season, including his emergence as the leader of the defensive line. At 6’6” and 265 pounds, the Miami native has the ideal size for an edge defender with quick hands to help him get off blocks. There’s a ton of pass-rush potential here, especially considering his motor and finishing ability. The tools are there for him to surpass his predecessors.

Ohio State X-Factor: Quarterback

Headman Ryan Day hasn’t named a starting quarterback, a decision he says will “go right down to the wire.” The candidates are Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz, with Sayin the favorite and projected starter by most. Whomever emerges will be a first-year starter and must prove themselves every week. Can they maximize the potential of the offense? In particular, the throw game. How will they handle playing No. 1 in the country in Week 1? Facing Penn State and their defense? Five Big Ten road games, including a season finale at Michigan?

Sayin, a five-star recruit in the 2024 class, transferred to OSU after signing with Alabama out of high school. He’s considered the better passer of the two, and Kienholz brings more athleticism to the table. Quarterback play will be the most significant determining factor—largely unknown going into the season—in Ohio State matching or exceeding last year’s regular season success, winning the Big Ten, making the CFP, and repeating as national champs.

Note: Julian Sayin was named the starting QB after publication.

Ohio State Schedule Analysis

SP+ SOS Rank: 21 | Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 24

Oregon is off the schedule, and they will face Penn State at home; however, they will also play No. 1 Texas in an out-of-conference game after facing Marshall and a pair of MAC schools in 2024, with a trip to Ann Arbor to close out the season. The Buckeyes have five conference road games in 2025, three of which could be challenging, including games against Illinois and Washington.

OSU is expected to be favored in every game, but don’t expect a 12-0 record. They are a 2.5-point favorite over Texas in Week 1, 3.5 points vs. Penn State, and 5.5 points at Michigan. The spreads against the Illini and Huskies are 13.5 going into 2025. A look back at last season (when the Buckeyes lost twice in conference play) reveals that they had just two games with a single-digit spread and only three games where they were favored by fewer than 19.5 points.

Ohio State Best Bet, Long Shot & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

It’s hard to see how the Buckeyes don’t take a step back. Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins were studs, as was Donovan Jackson in the trenches, and the defensive line was among the best in all of college football. Perhaps even more significant will be replacing their quarterback, as well as two coordinators whose roles during their CFP run were undeniable.

Here’s the thing. We don’t even need Ryan Day’s seventh team to regress in 2025. Another ten-win season would punch OSU’s CFP ticket and our UNDER 10.5 ticket. OSU can repeat as National Champs and still go UNDER. I like my chances. If you’re looking for a plus-money futures wager, consider the Buckeyes missing the playoffs at +280. Is it likely? No. However, OSU dropping three, possibly even four games, is a realistic outcome if things go wrong at QB and coordinator.