Will the American League Win the All-Star Game? Insights

The Betting Line: Why the AL is Slightly Favored

As of the latest odds, the American League enters the 2025 MLB All-Star Game as a narrow favorite at -115, a price that reflects recent history more than present strength. The AL has dominated this event, winning 10 of the last 11 matchups, a staggering trend that bookmakers can’t ignore—even if the current player pool has shifted power toward the National League.

Still, it’s not a heavy favorite. A -115 line essentially implies a 53.5% win probability, giving bettors fair opportunity on either side.

Pitching Preview: Starters Won’t Decide It

If reports are accurate, Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) is expected to start for the AL and Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) for the NL. But let’s be clear—this won’t be decided in the first three innings.

With All-Star managers traditionally limiting starters to 1–2 innings, the true swing of the game happens late, when the bullpens—often filled with less recognizable arms or rising prospects—take over. That includes potential cameos from Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers), or Ranger Suárez (Phillies) for the NL, while the AL may counter with names like Mason Miller (Athletics) or Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Angels).

One wildcard? Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers). If he pitches in what could be his final All-Star appearance, the emotional weight is with the National League. But would anyone dare light him up? It’s a sentiment that plays in the background, though not a factor for handicapping.

The Lineups: Loaded Early, Then What?

Assuming Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners) and Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) are in the thick of the AL order, the top-heavy strength favors the American League in the first three innings. But players like Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies, and Judge will all be long gone when the game is truly up for grabs in the 7th or 8th inning.

And that’s where depth matters. The NL bench might be slightly more dynamic in the current landscape. This gives the edge to the NL in late-inning situations.

Why I’m Selling: The Value Lies with the National League

I’m selling the American League as a favorite in this spot. Despite the AL’s decade-long dominance, the pendulum of roster quality and bullpen upside has finally swung toward the National League.

• Pitching Depth Edge: From Wheeler to Skenes to Suárez, the NL has arguably the deeper and more in-form staff.

• Motivation Edge: If this is Kershaw’s final All-Star appearance, the emotional weight may subtly tilt the dugout’s energy.

• Lineup Balance: The NL may lack Judge and Ohtani, but its mix of experience and youth offers more scoring avenues later in the game.

Add to that the high variance of All-Star Games—usually low scoring and bullpen-determined—and the smarter bet may be on the underdog side of the moneyline.

Best Betting Angle: Take the National League +105 or Better

While the AL is a deserved slight favorite on reputation and history, value is key in All-Star betting. If you can grab the National League at +105 or better, that’s a worthwhile swing in a game that trends toward coin-flip chaos once the big names head to the bench.

For totals bettors, keep an eye on the under. With elite arms only pitching 1–2 innings and managers opting for conservative use, games often end in 3–2 or 4–3 type scores.

Final Take: The Trend Ends Here

The American League has been dominant. But in a year where youth, bullpen talent, and NL momentum are converging, the time feels right for the National League to flip the script.

So I’m selling the AL—and buying into a well-priced NL squad with more to prove and the arms to finish it.