MLB · 2 months ago

White Sox vs Dodgers MLB Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

White Sox vs Dodgers MLB Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The Los Angeles Dodgers are eyeing a series sweep tonight as they welcome the lowly Chicago White Sox back to Chavez Ravine. After cruising to a comfortable Game 1 win, LA flexed its resilience with a thrilling ninth-inning comeback last night. Now, with the league’s most dangerous lineup and advanced metrics to match, the Dodgers look primed to handle business again against a Chicago squad that’s been lifeless on the road and an easy out at the plate.

Let’s hit the ground running and try to escape LA with a three-leg parlay cash out.

CWS vs LAD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch White Sox vs Dodgers

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: SportsNet LA, CHSN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (-140) | Total: 9
Moneyline: CWS +235| LAD -290

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Dodgers Run line -1.5 (-140)

The Dodgers look to wrap up a three-game sweep when they host the White Sox tonight. LA jumped out with a 5-1 win in the series opener, but had more trouble in Game 2. LA needed a come-from-behind 5-4 walk-off last night, thanks to a three-run ninth, capped by a Freddie Freeman RBI single to end it. I don’t expect the white and blue to have that much trouble tonight.

The Dodgers sport the top offense in baseball, leading MLB with a .263 team batting average. LA is also the top-scoring team in the bigs, by a wide margin. The Dodgers have scored 25 more runs than the second-place Chicago Cubs. Los Angeles’s advanced analytics are also off the charts. The Kings of Chavez Ravine lead MLB in xBA (.271), xSLG (.483), xwOBA (.357), and xwOBACON (.418). They are fourth in barrel percentage (10.3), fifth in hard hit rate (43%), and fifth in exit velocity, launching balls at 90.1 MPH on average.

Chicago, on the other hand, has been a laughing stock for the better part of three years now, and it continues this season. The White Sox have the worst record in the American League and the second worst in baseball. They’ve won just nine games on the road all season and have offensive numbers that could be rivaled by a D1 team.

The White Sox sit third-last in xBA (.236), are fourth from the bottom in xSLG (.388), and rank 28th with a .307 xwOBA. Those poor advanced analytics contribute to the second-lowest scoring team in baseball, that are somehow even worse away from home. Chicago has scored the fewest away runs this season and continues to be an easy out at the plate.

In no way is Dustin May (4-5, 4.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) a world-beater, but Chicago can’t score on the worst of pitchers. Banged up without Luis Robert, who wasn’t hitting much anyway, still hurts the offense, so I expect the Sox to be kept in check on Thursday night.

With the moneyline removing all value, the run line is the way to go. LA’s potent offense, combined with Chicago’s struggles on offense and the road, makes it a worthwhile play at -140.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Shohei Ohtani to Record RBI (-120)

I like this play because it offers the most value when compared to some of the other Shohei Ohtani props available tonight. Paying -170 for him to record 2+ bases seems ridiculous to me, as does -320 for a hit or +144 for a home run. I have no doubt that these numbers are being affected by the influx of people who come solely to bet on Ohtani, but we’re not falling for these inflated prices.

Despite Shohei continuing to hit in the leadoff spot, there are still plenty of RBI opportunities for him in such a stacked Dodgers lineup. Even the bottom of the order has been getting it done. No. 9 hitter Hyeseong Kim is sporting a .368 average to go along with a .415 OBP. There’s no doubt he’s seeing some good pitches hitting in front of Ohtani, and that’s great for his table setter status.

Forget about who is getting on in front of him, as Shohei always has the ability to drive himself in every time he steps to the dish. Sure, we’re not going to risk it at +144, but we’ll certainly take our RBI via the home run should Shohei feel like circling the pillows in the warm California night. Ohtani has already done that 30 times this year to lead the National League. His 1.015 OPS and .631 SLG are no jokes, and the Japanese superstar can change the complexity of a game or a parlay in an instant.

Ohtani’s advanced analytics are just as impressive. Shohei sits third in baseball with a .432 xwOBA, third with a 22.3% barrel rate, and the top hard hit percentage (60.9%) in baseball. He also has a batting run value score of 36, which puts him at the top of MLB, to go along with the best xSLG (.659) in baseball. Ohtani’s average exit velocity of 95.1 MPH sits near the top of the chart, and his bat speed of 77.2 is in the top four percent of the league.

Among all of his guard stats and advanced analytics, his run production ability got lost a little bit. With 56 RBI, Ohtani is right around on pace to hit 100 this season, a fantastic number for a leadoff man.

Watch Ohtani go to work tonight.

Leg 3: Mookie Betts to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)

If Shohei Ohtani is the heart of the Dodgers, then Mookie Betts is the blue blood pumping through the team’s veins. While Betts may not be having the kind of start we’ve been used to in LA, he is still a very dangerous hitter. The former Boston Red Sox slugger is averaging nearly a hit a game with 76 in 79 contests this season, contributing to a .322 OBP.

Examining some of Mookie’s advanced analytics helps paint a picture of just how professional a hitter he is. Betts leads baseball with a 40.7% squared-up rate, meaning he is making good contact and achieving ideal velocity. The eight-time All-Star’s 10.1 walk percentage shows he continues to be a patient hitter with a great eye. Waiting for his ideal pitch means better contact and more extra base hits, something that’s music to our ears for this prop.

Betts has nine home runs, 11 doubles, and a triple this season, so he’s still very capable of cashing our prop with one swing of the bat. That said, hitting in the two-hole in front of some big bangers like Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy, Betts can also pepper you with singles. With such big bats behind him, Mookie is always going to see some good pitches, improving his chances to make solid contact.

Hitless in his last 12 at-bats, I like Betts to break out of his slump against a very mediocre pitcher in Aaron Civale (4.74 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 72 total bases in 38 IP) and cash the final leg of our parlay.