Twins vs Tigers: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay

At the start of the season, no one really knew what to expect in the AL Central. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians opened as the betting favorites, but the Detroit Tigers were always lurking close behind. As we approach the All-Star break, this is the Tigers’ division to lose. They can tighten their grip atop the standings with a strong showing versus the Twins in tonight’s series finale.

These are the bets we’re making for our Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay!

Where to Watch Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers

• Ballpark: Comerica Park
• Location: Detroit, MI
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: DET-1.5 | Total: 7.5
• Moneyline: DET -275 | MIN +225
  
• Matchup Page

Leg 1: Under 7.5 -120

Virtually every time Tarik Skubal takes to the mound, runs are at a premium. That’s what we’re counting on again today, as the Tigers’ ace battles versus Chris Paddack and an underwhelming Twins’ offense. 

Skubal’s analytics profile is one of the best in the game. He ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in expected ERA, strikeout percentage, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and chase rate. Predictably, those benchmarks correlate with a 2.29 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and a 9-2 record. 

Chris Paddack isn’t on the same level as Skubal. Still, the Twins’ righty is much better than he’s shown recently. From April 12 to June 7, Paddack allowed just 16 earned runs across 64.0 innings pitched, giving up two or fewer runs in all but one of those contests. Over his last three starts, Paddack has totaled 16 earned runs across 14.0 innings pitched. Assuredly, his ERA will start to come back down into normal range. 

Comerica Park remains a safe haven for pitchers, ensuring Skubal and Paddack are at their best. We’re betting on a low-scoring affair, taking under 7.5 on Sunday Night Baseball.

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Leg 2: Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts -134

We all appreciate Tarik Skubal for the Cy Young winner he is, but let’s shine a light on some of his underappreciated strikeout stuff. 

Heading into tonight’s intra-divisional clash, Skubal rates as one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league. He has 125 strikeouts across 102.0 innings pitched, translating to an 11.0 K/9 rate. Further, the righty has eclipsed eight Ks in nine of his 15 starts on the season. More importantly, those punchouts are grounded in sustainable metrics. 

Skubal induces a 33.5% whiff rate and a 33.7% chase rate, propping up his gaudy strikeout marks. While most pitchers rely on two offerings to keep batters on their toes, Skubal has three top-tier pitches. He throws a changeup, sinker, and four-seamer to keep batters guessing every time they are at the plate. That’s without considering the occasional slider or knuckle curve that buckles batters with ease. 

Over the past week, the Minnesota Twins have taken a more liberal approach at the plate. They are up to 43 Ks over their last six games, walking back to the dugout 7.2 times per game. We’re betting that average continues to climb following Sunday’s clash in the Motor City. We’re taking Skubal to go over 7.5 strikeouts.

Leg 3: Parker Meadows to Record an RBI +200

Rounding out our Same Game Parlay, we’re betting on an unsuspecting Tigers player to take on a more prominent role on offense.

Parker Meadows has asserted himself at the plate recently. The 25-year-old has hits in six of his last eight games, with two extra-base hits and four RBI over that stretch. Another strong showing is expected versus Paddack. 

Naturally, the left-handed batting Meadows has an advantage versus the right-hander. Still, the betting advantage is more profound than that. Meadows is operating more than 40 points below his expected slugging percentage, and his 36.5% launch angle sweet spot contact rate puts him among the upper echelon of hitters. 

We’ve seen Meadows take significant strides in his recent plate appearances, and that upward trajectory carries him into tonight’s rubber match versus the Twins. He’s our value pick of the evening, and we’re backing the outfielder to drive in at least one run on Sunday night.

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Twins vs. Tigers: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks

• Under 7.5 -120
• Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts -134
• Parker Meadows to Record an RBI +200

Parlaying two chalky offerings with a value RBI pick could net bettors a hefty +940 return on their bet. We’re taking a stance on the under, Tarik Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts, and Parker Meadows to record an RBI.