The Blue Jays’ Best Closer Option Needs a Shot in the Role

The Toronto Blue Jays are 10-13 through 23 games and sit in fourth-place in the American League East despite projections to be one of the best teams in baseball and reprising their role as reigning AL Champions. There are many factors one could point to that have led them to this lack of success thus far in 2026, but their closer might be one of the bigger reasons.

Toronto’s suffered plenty of injuries to its pitching staff this season that has caused them to use everyone from veterans like Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer to minor league arms like Lazaro Estrada. Through all this turnover early in the season, Jeff Hoffman has maintained his role as the Blue Jays’ closer.

Hoffman has pitched in 12 games so far in 2026 and has allowed nine earned runs in just 10.2 innings, resulting in a ghastly 7.59 ERA. He’s had troubles closing out games for the Jays and has blown 10 saves out of 46 opportunities since the start of 2025. It’s about time that they try someone else out in the role, and who better to look to than Louis Varland, one of just 10 qualified relievers to not allow an earned run in 2026.

All stats updated prior to games on Wednesday, April 22

Hoffman’s Struggles

Prior to the 2025 season, Hoffman signed a three-year, $33 million contract with the Blue Jays to become a full-time closer for the first time in his career. He’d amassed just 12 saves over his previous nine seasons in MLB and was being thrust straight into the role with the Jays, and he hasn’t been the most reliable.

In 2025, Hoffman posted a 4.37 ERA and a 4.90 FIP in 68 innings with 84 strikeouts and 27 walks. His 9-7 record doesn’t reflect him being used in multi-inning scenarios or tied ballgames, but rather the Jays’ ability to either dig themselves out of a hole he’s put them in or him merely blowing ballgames. While at times Hoffman has looked like one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, his lack of consistency is troubling.

So far in 2026, he’s sporting an outlandish 42.1% strikeout rate through 10.2 innings and has an E-F (ERA-FIP) gap of 4.26 (7.59 ERA, 3.33 FIP). FIP incorporates elements of the game that a pitcher can actually control like the ‘three true outcomes’ (strikeout, walk, home run), eliminating any element of chance with balls put in play involving defenders.

While Hoffman has dominated hitters with his strikeout stuff, he’s faltered with the game on the line, allowing multiple runs three times already this season. In a pair of games on April 14 and 18, Hoffman surrendered six earned runs including a complete meltdown against the Diamondbacks where hitters posted the following sequence against him: single, single, walk, grand slam. This was a game where the Jays worked hard to keep it a 2-2 ballgame and Hoffman blew it clean open.

None of this is to say that Hoffman is an inherently bad reliever, but he’s not performing well in the closer’s role. Toronto needs someone who doesn’t come with the baggage of blowing one of the most important games in franchise history (2025 World Series Game 7) and who gives fans any reason to question his efficacy when he enters the game.

They need Louis Varland.

Skip to My Lou

Varland has quietly been one of the most dominant relievers in all of MLB. As mentioned earlier, he has yet to surrender an earned run in 13 innings of work. Over his 12 appearances, Varland has totaled 19 strikeouts and walked only three batters with a WHIP of just 0.85. Varland is featured frequently in Toronto’s gameplans and is often trusted with the most crucial outs in non-save situations.

For instance, Varland was used in the seventh inning on April 20 against the Angels to face their 8-9-1 hitters and he struck three out in a perfect inning. Instead of opting for Tyler Rogers for the full eighth inning, manager John Schneider felt comfortable enough to let Varland face the red-hot bat of Mike Trout (.939 OPS) to lead off the next inning. Varland struck him out.

Player Average Leverage Index (pLI) is a stat that defines the relative importance of a pitcher’s appearance, where a pLI less than 1.00 indicates a relatively low-stress outing and a pLI above 1.00 indicates a high-pressure situation. Seven of Varland’s 11 appearances have had a pLI above 1.00 and his average pLI on the season is 1.69. Simply put, John Schneider doesn’t have to think much about whether Varland is reliable or not, he can rely on him every time.

Perhaps Toronto should’ve pivoted at the closer position before the season started and given Varland or another option the reins, but even though the season’s already upon us it’s not too late for them to make a change.

Varland’s Toronto Tenure

Since being acquired by the Blue Jays from the Minnesota Twins at the 2025 trade deadline, Varland has posted a 3.19 ERA over 36.2 regular-season innings. His 2.62 FIP as a Blue Jay dwarfs his 4.53 career FIP with the Twins and he’s become one of the most beloved parts of this Blue Jays squad. In the 2025 postseason, anyone living in Canada who hadn’t heard the legend of Louis Varland soon found out who he was.

Varland set an MLB record by appearing in 15 games in a single postseason where he posted an ERA of 3.94 over 16 innings where he struck out 17 batters and walked just three. If you exclude a three-run home run he surrendered to Aaron Judge in Game 3 of the ALDS, he was a 2.25-ERA pitcher for the rest of Toronto’s playoff run, being more than just a reliable reliever. He pitched in every single game the Jays played in last October/November, so he’s no stranger to the big moments.

He has an incredible pitch arsenal with plenty of velocity, featuring a fastball averaging 98.2 MPH on the season, a knuckle-curve coming in at 87.3 MPH, a slider (91.7), a changeup (92.4 MPH), and a sinker (95.7 MPH). His fastball in particular has been nearly unhittable this season with an opposing batting average of just .059 and slugging rate of .118. Varland has only allowed one extra-base hit this season and has not allowed a single barrel all season.

Closing Thoughts

Even though the Blue Jays have been experiencing an unusually high number of injuries to key players, they have more to worry about when their healthy players aren’t performing nearly as well as they should be. Jeff Hoffman has been worrisome on the mound so far in 2026 and the fact that Toronto’s closer job is up in the air this early in the season is just another problem the Jays don’t need right now.

Louis Varland has been the Jays’ best reliever this year and one of the best in all of MLB, and it’s about time he’s at least experimented with as the closer in Toronto. Ever since being acquired last year he’s been a fan favourite and nothing but consistent on the mound, so what’s stopping Varland from being the closer?

In Tuesday night’s victory over the Angels, Varland came in to record the final two outs, resulting in the first save of his big league career. Perhaps this is a sign of what’s to come.

At the end of the day, the Jays will likely experiment with Hoffman a bit longer and afford him more opportunities to prove himself, but Varland is the best option when Hoffman’s not his All-Star-calibre self (which is seeming to be more and more often). Varland has been a beast in 2026 and it’s worth watching his season play out however it goes, as he’s an electric young arm and potentially a future closer.

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