Red Sox vs. Yankees: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay
Grant White
Host · Writer
Just when New York Yankees‘ fans thought things couldn’t get any worse, the Boston Red Sox came to town. Fighting for their playoff lives, the Yankees have dropped the first three games to their hated division rivals, relegating them to the edge of the playoff picture. At this point, a win on Sunday Night Baseball is the moral victory the Bronx Bombers desperately need.
Read up on what bets we like in the series finale at Yankee Stadium!
Where to Watch Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
- Location: Bronx, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Spread: SEA -1.5 | Total: 8.5
- Moneyline: SEA -124 | NYM +106
Leg 1: Over 8.5 -115
It’s been a relatively subdued weekend in the Bronx. Up until the ninth inning on Saturday, there were just 16 runs scored through the first three games of the series. However, both starting pitchers are plagued by some concerning underlying metrics, pointing toward an offensive outburst on Sunday.
Carlos Rodon takes to the mound in tonight’s series finale. While he’s been solid throughout the campaign, there are a few red flags to consider. The southpaw has been a victim of solid contact all season, giving up 8.1% barrel and 39.7% hard-hit rates and ranking in the 52nd and 57th percentiles, respectively. Not surprisingly, those metrics have been his undoing at home. Rodon’s 1.5 HR/9 at Yankee Stadium is nearly double his road mark of 0.8 HR/9.
Dustin May‘s metrics look even worse. The former highly-touted phenom ranks in the 17th percentile with a 4.81 ERA. Moreover, his undoing has been hard-hit balls that surely won’t play well in the Bronx. The hard-throwing righty sits in the 15th percentile with a 45.7% hard-hit rate and 45th percentile with an 8.6% barrel rate.
There is nowhere to hide with either one of these hard-hitting lineups. While runs were in short supply early in this series, we’re betting that low-scoring trend comes to a screeching halt on Sunday. Over 8.5 is the play.
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Leg 2: Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run +190
Good captains pick their teams up when they need them, and that’s exactly what Aaron Judge has in store tonight. The AL MVP contender is without a homer in four straight, a trend that will mercifully come to an end against the Red Sox.
Judge’s analytics profile leaves little doubt over his home run potential versus Dustin May. The hulking outfielder ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate (24.6%), average exit velocity (95.1 mph), and expected slugging percentage (.696). Additionally, he has fallen below that expected slugging percentage value, implying that we should see a massive swing in good fortune over the coming games.
May’s first start at Yankee Stadium is sure to be an eventful one. He faces a daunting lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark, with an MVP candidate ready to break out. There’s a reason why Aaron Judge’s home run price is +190. Still, it is a bet worth making.
Leg 3: Cody Bellinger to Record 3+ Hits +1600
When the Yankees signed Cody Bellinger this offseason, they knew they were getting a versatile player flush with potential. After a rocky six-week start to the season, Belli has delivered in every facet of the game. New York needs him now more than ever, and we’re predicting another game-changing performance from the former MVP.
It’s been a relatively quiet month for Bellinger, but he’s shown signs of breaking out more recently. Through 19 games, the former fourth-round pick has a .216 batting average. That puts him more than 50 points below his expected level and even further off his regular-season average of .272. However, Bellinger has hits in five of his last six, a stretch that includes nine base hits and two multi-hit efforts.
Additionally, Belli is thriving at Yankee Stadium. Across 268 plate appearances, he’s accumulated a .295 batting average and .900 OPS. Surely, against a hittable opponent such as Dustin May, those numbers should be on the rise.
Bellinger has been a high-production contributor lately, and we expect that trend to continue into tonight’s series finale at home. Another multi-hit effort is within reach. Backing Bellinger to record three or more hits would net bettors +1600 and push our Same Game Parlay through the roof.
Red Sox vs. Yankees: Sunday Night Baseball Same Game Parlay Picks +4356
- Over 8.5 -115
- Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run +190
- Cody Bellinger to Record 3+ Hits +1600
This correlated approach favors the Yankees, aligning with the current betting price. We’re taking a stance on the over, with Aaron Judge recording a home run and Cody Bellinger chipping in with three or more hits. If all three picks cash, bettors are walking away with a brawny +4356 return.
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