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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Zack Wheeler Looks to Dominate in Battle of Uneven Offenses

Saturday’s Pitching Edge: Zach Wheeler vs. Carmen Mlodzinski

The Phillies host the Pirates on Saturday in the opener of what may be a low-scoring, pitching-heavy weekend series — and there’s no mistaking who has the upper hand on the mound in Game 1.

Wheeler gets the start for Philly, and the veteran right-hander continues to anchor one of baseball’s most consistent rotations. His command, velocity, and durability have been top-tier once again in 2025. While Wheeler hasn’t dominated headlines the way Paul Skenes has, he’s remained a DFS and betting staple thanks to:

A sub-3.00 ERA
Elite WHIP (~1.00)
A strikeout rate above 10 K/9

Opposing him is Mlodzinski, a talented but unproven arm for Pittsburgh. Mlodzinski has been solid in relief and spot starts, but this is a big leap in competition. The Pirates’ inability to consistently provide run support complicates any upside he brings to the table.

Pitching Advantage: Heavily favors the Phillies.

Betting Breakdown: Back Philly Early and Often

Philadelphia ML will be steep, with early lines around -210 to -230, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value.

Recommended Bets:

✅ Phillies -1.5 Run Line (+100 or better): With Wheeler on the mound and Mlodzinski vulnerable to long innings, this offers plus-value.
✅ Phillies First 5 Innings -0.5: Wheeler has been nails in the early innings, and Pittsburgh is among the league’s worst first-half scoring teams.
✅ Under 8 Total Runs: The Pirates’ lack of offense and Wheeler’s efficiency could keep this one under the number — as long as Philadelphia doesn’t explode for 8 on their own.

Prop Lean:

Zach Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts – Pittsburgh strikes out at one of the highest rates in the National League, and Wheeler has gone over this number in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Sunday Sneak Peek: Paul Skenes Time

Sunday brings a marquee pitching duel between Skenes and Cristopher Sánchez, and it’s arguably one of the best head-to-head matchups of the weekend.

Skenes has been everything Pittsburgh hoped for — a dominant front-line starter with elite fastball command and a bulldog mentality. But, as always, the Pirates’ problem is not on the mound — it’s at the plate.

They’ve consistently failed to give Skenes run support, squandering multiple quality starts. He’s 3-2 with a microscopic ERA, but could easily be 6-0 with even average offense behind him.

Sánchez, meanwhile, has quietly become a key rotation piece for Philly. He’s held opposing hitters under a .230 batting average and has shown improved command of his secondary pitches. If he continues this pace, he may sneak into All-Star conversation.

Sunday Betting Preview:

Expect a tight line, possibly near a pick’em.
Under 7.5 runs is an early lean if both aces are confirmed.
Skenes K props (likely set around 7.5) are in play, but beware — Philly is more disciplined than most teams.

Aaron Nola Hits the IL: Addition by Subtraction?

News broke Friday that the Phillies placed Aaron Nola on the injured list — and oddly enough, that may help this team. Nola has been brutal in 2025, posting an ERA near 6.00, with diminished velocity and command issues plaguing every start. He had become a liability in the rotation, and while the team hopes he can reset during this IL stint, his absence may bring clarity more than concern.

Final Word: Saturday Is Wheeler’s Day

The Phillies should dominate on Saturday. The pitching advantage is stark, the offense is getting just enough production from guys like Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber, and the Pirates simply cannot score enough to compete against frontline arms.

Saturday Best Bets Recap: