Phillies vs. Reds Betting Preview: Zack Wheeler Looks to Dominate

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds in a Sunday afternoon MLB matchup at 1:35 PM ET, and all eyes are on the pitching duel between Zack Wheeler and Chase Burns. With betting markets lining up behind the Phillies and a total set at 8.5, this game offers sharp value for bettors looking at both sides and player props.

Phillies vs Reds Odds and Total: Heavy Moneyline Lean on Philadelphia

Oddsmakers opened the Phillies as -225 favorites, and that line has remained firm in most sportsbooks, with some climbing as high as -246. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved, reflecting the balance between a dominant Phillies starter and favorable hitting conditions at Citizens Bank Park.

With the Phillies playing at home and Zack Wheeler in elite form, they’re drawing the majority of public and sharp money heading into this early afternoon game.

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Zack Wheeler Strikeout Prop: Over/Under 8.5 Ks

Wheeler is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 32.9% strikeout rate. His strikeout prop is listed at 8.5, which may look high at first glance, but it’s well supported by recent data.

The Reds’ lineup vs right-handed pitching over the last 30 days has been striking out at alarming rates:

• Connor Joe: 41% K rate

• Tyler Stephenson: 35%

• Will Benson: 27%

• Ke’Bryan Hayes: 25%

• Jake Fraley: 24%

• Gavin Lux: 21%

• Spencer Steer: 21%

With multiple hitters at 22% or higher, Wheeler has a clear path to 7+ strikeouts, especially if he goes six or more innings and limits early damage. There is slight juice to the under at 8.5, but a 7–8 K outing is a very realistic projection.

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Chase Burns: Jekyll and Hyde Performance Early in Season

Chase Burns made an electric debut against the Yankees but followed it with a rough second start. The rookie right-hander has flashed velocity and strikeout potential, but also looked overwhelmed in tougher spots. Today he’ll face a Phillies lineup that has some strikeout tendencies but can also punish mistakes.

Burns’ volatility makes him a tough pitcher to trust. Depending on how he handles the top of the Phillies’ order, he could tally 6 strikeouts or exit the game early after giving up 4–5 earned runs. With the hitting conditions favorable and the Phillies’ lineup seeing righties well, the lean is toward Burns struggling again.

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Best Bets for Phillies vs Reds (Sunday, 1:35 PM ET)

Here are some recommended bets for today’s game:

• Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts: Great matchup vs a swing-and-miss Reds team.

• Phillies -1.5 Run Line: Burns’ inconsistency makes this a solid value at plus odds.

• Phillies First 5 Innings ML: Backing Wheeler to get off to a strong start.

• Same Game Parlay Option: Wheeler 7+ Ks + Phillies ML + Under 9.5 Runs

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Final Prediction: Phillies Ride Wheeler’s Arm in Sunday Afternoon Win

The Phillies have the edge in nearly every department this afternoon, especially on the mound with Zack Wheeler in top-tier form. Chase Burns may settle into a solid MLB starter down the road, but the matchup vs Philly’s offense — especially in warm hitting conditions — likely spells trouble today.

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