Phillies vs Braves Best Bets: Same Game Parlay for June 27

The NL East is no joke. Sitting at 47-34, the Philadelphia Phillies are relegated to second in the division. Still, the Atlanta Braves haven’t given up on their playoff aspirations yet and are looking to make up ground as they clash with the Phillies in Hotlanta. 

Check out our favorite bets for the series opener on Friday night!

Where to Watch Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

• Ballpark: Truist Park
• Location: Atlanta, GA
• Where to Watch: FDSSO, NBCS-PH
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Spread: ATL -1.5 | Total: 9.5
• Moneyline: ATL -172 | PHI +144
  
• Matchup Page

Leg 1: Over 9.5 +100

Both teams are riding losing streaks into this intra-divisional series opener. Still, we’re expecting the Braves and Phillies’ offenses to come to life at Truist Park. 

While they haven’t been at their best this week, the Phillies hold an advantage in every offensive category. They have superior on-base and power metrics, as evidenced by their season-long .727 OPS. Moreover, we project Philadelphia to make significant gains over the weekend. Their .537 over the last six games is a substantial departure from the Phillies’ usual production. They will have plenty of opportunities to deliver in Atlanta, and that starts in the series opener. 

Likewise, the Braves are also modest progression candidates. They are operating below expected levels in terms of run production, pointing toward immediate correction versus Mick Abel. Expect them to put up a crooked number on Friday night.

It’s an undeserving price on the over, but that only amplifies the betting advantage. We’re taking plus-money on the over, and betting this one to eclipse 9.5 runs. 

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Marcell Ozuna to Total 3+ Bases +210

Marcell Ozuna remains one of the Braves’ most productive hitters in the heart of their order. He should tee off Mick Abel on Friday night. 

Ozuna remains one of the most dominant hitters in the MLB. His .384 expected weighted on-base average puts him in the 90th percentile, and his expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity all put him in the 25th percentile or higher. 

More concerningly, Abel will be serving up meatballs all night. The Phillies’ righty has a 5.99 expected ERA, which is close to double his actual mark of 3.47. Those concerns are amplified by his 12.3% barrel and 56.2% hard-hit rates. Assuredly, regression will hit Abel like a ton of bricks.

Ozuna is a prime home run candidate, but we’re backing him to record at least three bases versus the Phillies on Friday night. 

Leg 3: Ozzie Albies to Hit a Home Run +680

It’s not every day that Ozzie Albies sends out one of the park, but we’re betting tonight’s matchup is one of those special occasions when he goes yard. 

As noted, Mick Abel is a gas can. And as inferred by the betting line, the Braves are expected to run away in a high-scoring affair. To get there, they will need production from top to bottom out of their lineup.

That’s where Ozzie Albies comes in. The Braves’ second baseman was slugging .361 toward the end of last month. Heading into Friday night’s showdown versus the Phillies, that number has fallen to .322. That puts Albies significantly below his expected mark and even further off his peak production. We expect progress from him in the short term. 

Furthermore, he does his best work against right-handers. All seven of his extra-base hits this season have come off conventional arms. Predictably, that correlates with a 60-point jump in his slugging percentage compared to his lefty splits. 

This is a pure value play. Still, the value is undeniable. Albies is a progression candidate who benefits from an ideal pitching matchup. At +680, we’re betting he goes yard versus the Phillies. 

BET365 PROMO CODE – FIRST BET SAFETY NET $1000 IN BONUS BETS

Phillies vs. Braves Same Game Parlay Picks:

• Over 9.5 +100
• Marcell Ozuna to Record 3+ Total Bases +210
• Ozzie Albies to Hit a Home Run +680

Parlaying all three picks could return bettors +2488 on their investment. We’re betting that Albies goes yard, Ozuna records at least three total bases, and this NL East battle sails over the total.