Odds to Win MLB MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines
SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball
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When the season begins, the MVP picture always has some clear favorites especially when you look at the players who have been hogging the MVP trophy over the past few years.
Since the 2021 season, one of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani has won the MVP each season. Ohtani took home his first MVP in 2021, winning opposite Bryce Harper (his 2nd MVP). In 2022, Judge beat Ohtani for the AL MVP, with Paul Goldschmidt winning on the National League side.
In 2023, Ohtani again won the AL MVP, this time paired with Ronald Acuna Jr., who made history by becoming the first player to hit 40 home runs and swipe 70+ bases in the same season.
After sharing the American League for so many years, Ohtani changed leagues when he signed with the Dodgers before last season, giving both superstars a wide-open runway to win the MVP in 2024 and into the foreseeable future.
Despite valiant efforts by shortstops Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr., Judge and Ohtani again came home with the MVP hardware, and they opened up this season as the heavy favorites to win the awards again.
But the favorites don’t always win. That’s why they still play 162 games, to allow everyone a chance to prove themselves, and you never know when a new dark horse will emerge.
Will Judge and Ohtani hold off the field and again be named the Most Valuable players in the game?
Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races.
Current MLB MVP Odds: Top Contenders for 2025
Before we dive deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s look at the updated odds from BetMGM in the two MVP races.
2025 American League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 1. Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | -10000 | -10000 | +300 | 99.01% |
| 2. Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | +2500 | +2500 | +10000 | 3.85% |
| 3. Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | +3000 | +3000 | +475 | 3.23% |
| 4. Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | +8000 | +8000 | +1200 | 1.23% |
| 5. Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | +10000 | +10000 | +600 | 0.99% |
| 5. Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | +10000 | +10000 | +2200 | 0.99% |
| 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | +12500 | +12500 | +1600 | 0.79% |
| 6. Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | +12500 | +12500 | +4000 | 0.79% |
| 7. Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | +15000 | +15000 | +5000 | 0.66% |
| 7. Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | +15000 | +15000 | +2000 | 0.66% |
When looking at the table above, you may be wondering, “What is implied probability?”.
In sports betting, the implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage representing a given outcome’s likelihood. It is a different way to put the odds in perspective, so you understand why some bets are long shots to come in, while others are real favorites.
With -10000 odds to win the AL MVP, the sportsbooks are telling us that there is a 99.01% chance that Judge will win the MVP. So basically, everyone else should plan on receiving their participation trophies. That doesn’t, however, impact Cal Raleigh’s chance to win it, as the books give him +2500 odds, which has a 3.85% implied probability of winning.
Each player’s implied probability is exclusive to themselves and their own odds of winning the award; it is not one pie of 100% that is divided equally amongst all the candidates.
The beautiful thing about an MVP race is that it is fluid. If Judge hits .095 in July (unlikely but you never know), Raleigh might hit .450 and tilt the odds of the MVP race. That is why you might find value in Raleigh right now, when Judge has gotten off to such a fast start that someone like Witt Jr.’s preseason odds of +475 have more than quadrupled.
2025 National League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | OPENING ODDS | Implied Probability |
| 1. Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | -650 | -300 | +175 | 86.67% |
| 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | +1100 | +1000 | +20000 | 8.33% |
| 3. Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | +1600 | +1100 | +2500 | 5.88% |
| 4. Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | +3000 | +1200 | +800 | 3.23% |
| 4. Kyle Tucker | Chicago Cubs | +3000 | +1600 | +1200 | 3.23% |
| 4. Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | +3000 | +2500 | +3500 | 3.23% |
| 4. Pete Alonso | New York Mets | +3000 | +3000 | +5000 | 3.23% |
| 4. Francisco Lindor | New York Mets | +3000 | +4000 | +1800 | 3.23% |
| 4. Juan Soto | New York Mets | +3000 | +5000 | +1800 | 3.23% |
| 5. Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | 2.44% |
Ohtani’s odds have only improved from Opening Day to now, but he has not advanced to a big lead in the race like Judge. However, he remains the favorite based on the odds of winning the NL MVP.
Compared to the American League, the race is more wide-open in the National League, but the field is starting to get slightly slimmer. Last week, five players had odds of +1200 or better to win the award. Now, we’re at two. That’s a stark difference from Judge’s American League, where nobody is within +10000 odds of winning the award.
AL MVP Odds: American League Favorites
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | -10000 | -10000 | +300 | 99.01% |
| Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | +2500 | +2500 | +10000 | 3.85% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | +3000 | +3000 | +475 | 3.23% |
| Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | +8000 | +8000 | +1200 | 1.23% |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | +10000 | +10000 | +600 | 0.99% |
Narrowing in our focus to the top five contenders to win the AL MVP in the MLB betting futures right now, you will find that there could be a narrative that leads them to upset Judge, but the road will be very long to get there.
Witt Jr. made a valiant effort to beat Judge in last year’s MVP race with a ten-win season, yet came up short. Witt is trailing Judge by over two wins in the fWAR department, which is a wide margin for 60+ games, but one that can be narrowed over the next three-plus months.
Instead, that’s opened the door for Raleigh to make up some ground. The switch-hitting backstop is having a season for the ages and could very easily end up having the best offensive year from a catcher in MLB history. His fWAR is far from Judge’s, but his margin is only 1.7 wins compared to Witt’s 2.5-win gap.
Judge will probably win the award, the odds reflect that, but it is too early to count out a budding superstar like Raleigh. If Judge falls back to the pack a bit, and Raleigh continues to rake, you never know what can happen.
On the other hand, it is harder to believe that Jose Ramirez or someone like Gunnar Henderson will be able to compete with Judge in the stat department. Still, a bet on either of these players is a bet on their leadership and importance to their respective clubs.
Betting on someone other than Raleigh, Witt, or Judge to win the AL MVP this year is playing the lottery.
Big-Time Dark Horses for AL MVP in 2025
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | +10000 | +10000 | +2200 | 0.99% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | +12500 | +12500 | +1600 | 0.79% |
| Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | +12500 | +12500 | +4000 | 0.79% |
| Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | +15000 | +15000 | +5000 | 0.66% |
| Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | +15000 | +15000 | +2000 | 0.66% |
Remember what we said at the end of the section on the betting favorites to win the AL MVP?
Unless it is a bet for Judge or Witt, any player you wager on in the American League is a lottery ticket. Some tickets have a better chance of cashing in than others, so if you want to sprinkle anything on a dark horse, make sure you find one that can race.
For example, Julio Rodriguez hit just .207 with a .681 OPS through the first month of the season, but has since started to heat up a bit. Yet, he’s barely walking, and most of his numbers are still well off the mark from where he’s been in the past.
Then there’s Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year and is getting even better in 2025. The left-hander currently leads the AL in K/9 and the majors in BB/9. He’s struck out over 100 batters while walking just seven. The man is a machine.
At the end of the season, 30 BBWAA members vote on each of these awards, and the criteria to earn a vote is primarily based on which player racks up the best stats. Particularly, those who have the most WAR tend to favor heavily on who voters will pick in the end.
Someone like Rodriguez, even being in the race, is a great story, but he has to thread such a specific needle to win this award that it’s hard to believe he would ever actually get there.
The moral of the story might be to avoid buying into the J-Rod train for an improbable run to winning the AL MVP, but if you are a Mariners fan, knock yourself out.
NL MVP Odds: National League Favorites
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | OPENING ODDS | Implied Probability |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | -650 | -300 | +175 | 86.67% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | +1100 | +1000 | +20000 | 8.33% |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | +1600 | +1100 | +2500 | 5.88% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | +3000 | +1200 | +800 | 3.23% |
| Kyle Tucker | Chicago Cubs | +3000 | +1600 | +1200 | 3.23% |
The NL MVP race has been wide open for a while now, but a certain three-time MVP is starting to pull away from the field. Ohtani remains the favorite, but several players are all very tight based on the current odds, as plenty of stars have gotten off to fast starts to begin the 2025 season.
Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Corbin Carroll are strong defensive outfielders who will see their respective WAR totals climb all year thanks to their gloves. They are also all leading their respective teams, and they look like the clear best players on their respective teams.
Ohtani is the favorite to win the MVP right now, but a bet for PCA, Carroll, or Tucker can all be rationalized based on their ability to rack up WAR and the upside that a small wager on one of them presents.
Is Freddie Freeman the Best Dark Horse Bet for NL MVP?
| Player | Team | CURRENT ODDS | LAST WEEK’S ODDS | OPENING ODDS | Implied Probability |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | +3000 | +2500 | +3500 | 3.23% |
| Pete Alonso | New York Mets | +3000 | +3000 | +5000 | 3.23% |
| Francisco Lindor | New York Mets | +3000 | +4000 | +1800 | 3.23% |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | +3000 | +5000 | +1800 | 3.23% |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | 2.44% |
Freddie Freeman put together one of the best months in the game in May, and could easily apply a bit of pressure to his teammate Ohtani by the time this year is said and done.
Even though Freeman leads the NL in batting average, it feels like he will be stuck on the outside looking in once the year ends. He’s having an electric season but remains outside the top five in odds.
Beyond him, there’s a trio of Mets players, including last year’s runner-up in the NL MVP voting, Francisco Lindor. Lindor and his teammates, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, have been outstanding to open the year, and the reality is that all three of them are an extended hot streak away from forcing their way into the next top-five update in the dark horse section of our odds.
How to Follow the MLB MVP Odds
When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle. Right now, there is very little value in betting on Judge to win the AL MVP, because there is not much upside, but you also have to understand that it is not wise to bet against him either.
If there is one play in the AL right now, it is probably Raleigh. He has the potential to run down Judge in the AL MVP race, and the odds have gotten long enough for him to do it that it has become an attractive proposition for a smaller wager that can pay off big.
That said, if you buy Raleigh now at +2500 odds and the trends continue, next week, you might be able to get him at +3000. Wait a little longer, and it might be +3500. The best way to follow the odds is to check weekly, follow the trends, and always remember what the BBWAA voters are going to value above everything else: WAR.
The post Odds to Win MLB’s 2025 MVP: Updated Trackers & Betting Lines (June 2025) appeared first on Just Baseball.
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