New York Mets’ Season Outlook: Chasing National League East Amid Challenges
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Can the New York Mets Win the National League East? Don’t Bet the Mortgage on It Yet
The Mets are once again the most intriguing team in the NL—and possibly the most polarizing. A loaded lineup, an expensive payroll, a fragile rotation, and a fanbase expecting more than just another Wild Card bid. As we head into the second half of the 2025 MLB season, let’s break down the Mets’ chances and what bettors should keep in mind.
Buy or Sell: Mets Win the National League East?
Sell. Despite the flashy names and firepower, it’s hard to trust this version of the Mets to win the division outright. The injuries to their starting rotation are just too much to ignore. Kodai Senga’s absence remains massive—he was supposed to be the staff ace, and the Mets simply don’t have anyone who’s stepped into that role convincingly. Tylor Megill is also out, Frankie Montas is returning from a rehab stint that’s been ugly, and Luis Severino has been inconsistent at best.
David Stearns’ aversion to long-term commitments for pitchers is well documented. And while it’s fiscally responsible given the volatility of starters in today’s game, it’s also left the Mets exposed when attrition hits, as it has this season.
Yes, the Mets could be aggressive at the trade deadline, and yes, they have one of the deepest prospect pools in baseball. But unless they pull off a stunner like Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins or Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres, this pitching staff doesn’t have the depth to withstand a tight divisional race against the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
Betting Angle:
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Mets to win NL East: +300 to +350 at most sportsbooks.
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Phillies: -150 to -175
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Braves: +250
The smart money? Roll with Philadelphia’s consistency and depth. They’ve weathered their own share of injuries and continue to win. Atlanta, meanwhile, is lurking—and no one would be shocked if they ripped off a 20-5 stretch to shake up the standings.
Mets = 80s Yankees? Fireworks, but Flaws
This version of the Mets feels a lot like those fun-but-flawed New York Yankees teams of the mid-1980s: plenty of offense, porous pitching, and highlight-reel moments that ultimately end in October heartbreak. Pete Alonso remains a force, Francisco Lindor is heating up, and the emergence of Brett Baty and Ronnie Mauricio has energized the lineup. But they’re also giving up too many crooked numbers.
If you’re a total bettor, this is where the value lies. Mets overs have hit frequently this season, particularly when their bullpen is stretched. Monitor their matchup splits closely—against good teams, the rotation falters; against bad teams, the offense overwhelms.
Betting Angle:
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Mets Team Totals Over in games vs sub-.500 teams
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Overs in games not started by David Peterson or Griffin Canning
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Futures lean: Mets to make the playoffs YES at short odds, but NL East? No thanks.
What Would a Successful Season Look Like?
The Mets are still a playoff-caliber team. Most projection models have them in the 85–88 win range—plenty for a Wild Card. And that may be enough if they can peak late. Last year, they made it to the NLCS before falling to the Dodgers. A similar route could be on the table this year.
To make a deep postseason run, however, they must:
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Get healthy (especially Senga)
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Land a legitimate starter via trade
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Tighten up bullpen roles (too many blown leads early in the year)
Don’t rule them out completely, but be realistic about their ceiling without major reinforcements.
Bonus Buy/Sell: Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners Will Break the Catcher HR Record?
Buy. This might be the easiest “buy" of the summer. Raleigh has already launched 29 homers before the All-Star break—more than any catcher in MLB history at this point in a season. The single-season record is 48, held by Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals (2021), and Raleigh needs just 20 to pass him.
Sure, catchers wear down. The squat, the foul tips, the heat—it all adds up. But Raleigh has proven durable, and Seattle has been giving him DH reps to keep him fresh.
Betting Projection:
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Sportsbook HR Total: 53.5
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Lean: Over
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Longshot MVP futures? Sprinkle a little if he continues this historic pace and the Mariners win the AL West.
Final Verdict:
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NL East Winner: Sell the Mets, buy the Phillies.
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Mets’ Playoff Odds: Still worth betting the “Yes.”
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Trade Deadline Watch: Expect a splash—maybe not Alcantara, but someone with front-line potential.
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Prop of the Week: Raleigh Over 53.5 HRs? Take the over while the value’s there.
It’s going to be a rollercoaster second half in Queens. Buckle up—and maybe hedge.
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