MLB · 2 months ago

MLB Tuesday Night Best Bets: Twins, Cubs, and Rangers Picks

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Tuesday Night Best Bets: Twins, Cubs, and Rangers Picks

Tuesday’s MLB slate sets up perfectly for bettors with three strong edges on the board. The Twins ride Joe Ryan’s red-hot arm into Miami to face a Marlins squad that can’t score at home, while the Cubs look to keep the Guardians’ lifeless offense in check behind a stacked lineup at Wrigley. Out in Arlington, the Rangers hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom for a repeat performance against the Orioles after dominating them last week.

Solid pitching, home-field edges, and cold bats on the other side line up these best bets for a profitable night on the diamond. Let’s ride the top three best bets from a busy Tuesday night in baseball.

Where to Watch Twins vs Marlins

Ballpark: LoanDepot Park
Location: Miami, FL
Where to Watch: FDSFL, MNNT
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: MIN -1.5 (+106) | Total: 8
Moneyline: MIN -156 | MIA +132

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Twins Moneyline at Marlins (-180)

Diamond Joe Ryan is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, going up against one of the coldest offenses in the bigs. I’m no mathematician, but adding those two factors up equals a play on the Minnesota Twins over a struggling Miami Marlins squad.

Ryan is coming off a six-inning masterpiece against the Seattle Mariners, where he held them scoreless, while striking out eight and allowing just three hits. His absurd 0.50 WHIP on the day helped lead to Ryan’s seventh win in eight decisions, putting him up with the AL’s best with his eighth win on the year. The Twins righty is having a career year with personal bests in ERA (2.86), WHIP (0.89), and opponents batting average (.188)

Home cooking has not been good to the Miami Marlins. Not only do they sport an uninspiring 17-24 record at LoanDepot Park, but they have the fifth-fewest runs scored at home in baseball. Powered or unpowered by a 25th-ranked home OPS of .685, Miami’s offense does not strike fear into any visitors.

Miami is punching well above its weight lately with seven straight wins, six of which are on the road, so I expect them to come back to earth as they come back to a place they plainly don’t play well in.

MIN vs MIA Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Cubs

Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: TBS
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +152 | CHC -180

CLE vs CHC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Cubs Moneyline vs Guardians (-180)

It’s tough to trust the Cleveland Guardians to get much going against anyone at the moment, let alone a locked-in Chicago Cubs squad at home. Cleveland is batting an anemic .191 over its last ten games while being outscored by 24 runs in that stretch. Losing by an average margin north of two runs a night shows just how cold this lineup is heading into Wrigley.

Zooming out, the advanced numbers paint the same grim picture for the Guardians’ bats. They rank dead last in xBA (.229), xSLG (.376), xwOBA (.298), and xwOBACON (.344) and continue to flounder against southpaws with a .220 average and MLB-worst .614 OPS. With Matthew Boyd (7-3, 2.65 ERA) toeing the rubber, expect more of the same struggles from Cleveland’s lineup tonight.

On the flip side, the Cubs have been a model of consistency at the plate all season. They rank third in homers (124) and second in runs per game (5.4), with underlying metrics to match—Chicago’s .267 xBA ranks third in the majors and their xwOBACON sits fifth at .398. Their powerful lineup barrels up the ball with authority and generates damage at an elite clip.

When you stack up an elite offense against a cold, overmatched one, you back the better bats every time. The run line has value, but for our Best Bets card, locking in the Cubs to win outright at -180 is the safer play to anchor tonight’s parlay.

The Guardians’ offense can’t be trusted to perform against anyone right now, never mind an elite team like the Cubs. Cleveland is hitting a paltry .191 over its past ten games, and has been outscored by 24 runs over that span. Losing by an average of 2.4 runs per game over the past week and a half lines up perfectly for our run line play, with much better value than the -180 moneyline.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Where to Watch Orioles vs Rangers

Ballpark: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: RSN, MASN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Spread: TEX -1.5 (+116) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: BAL +150 | TEX -178

BAL vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Rangers -1.5 Run line vs Orioles (+116)

If you are feeling conservative, by all means, take the moneyline, which I would do if I were making this play in a parlay, but as a straight bet, I’m feeling the run line tonight. In an exact pitching matchup from just six days ago, I’m betting on a similar performance to the Texas Rangers 7-0 road win against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Rangers have their undisputed ace on the hill, as Jacob deGrom goes for his ninth win of the season, again matched up against the Orioles, the team he notched his eighth against last week. In a year where he’s stayed healthy (no jinx), deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 2.08 ERA on the year ranks third in MLB, while his 0.88 WHIP is second. The veteran hurler has routinely been able to go at least six, logging nine quality starts on the year. And oh yeah, deGrom also has 94 punchouts in 95 innings.

While the Rangers’ bats have underachieved all year, a matchup with O’s rookie Brandon Young is just what the doctor ordered. In just three starts in his young MLB career, Young has not been welcomed to the bigs with open arms, more like closing bats. The young thrower has been tuned up to a 7.11 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He’s yet to see a fifth inning in his big league career and opponents are hitting .311 off of him, with one of those opponents being these Texas Rangers.

Texas beat up on Young in Baltimore just six days ago. The Rangers had five hits against him, including a Josh Jung home run, while plating four over four innings. Texas continued its offensive assault against the bullpen, adding another three runs before calling it a night.

A bad team all season, the Orioles are even worse on the road, where they rank 22nd in runs scored and have won just 18 games. Baltimore’s advanced analytics like xBA (.252), xSLG (.423), and xwOBA (.322) all have them mediocrely sitting in the bottom half of baseball.

Less than a week after throwing seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, where he struck out seven in Baltimore, I like deGrom to do much of the same, while Texas’ bats do just enough to give us our two-run cushion.