MLB Thursday Night Best Bets: Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Giants Picks

Tonight’s MLB board dishes out plenty of value with three spots worth circling on your betting slip. North of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays look to cap off a statement sweep of the New York Yankees behind their scorching bats and Chris Bassitt’s strong home track record. In Cali, the LA Dodgers should cruise past the reeling Chicago White Sox with their loaded lineup and a favorable run line. Out in the desert, the San Francisco Giants roll out Robbie Ray to lock down the Arizona Diamondbacks and salvage a series split. With powerful offenses, smart pitching matchups, and plus-money angles, this trio makes for a sharp parlay anchor.

After again hitting two of three last night, missing perfection by one lousy run, let’s have a three-for-three Thursday to get things rocking.

Where to Watch Yankees vs Blue Jays 

• Ballpark: Rogers Centre
• Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Where to Watch: MLB Network, SNET, YES
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Spread: NYY -1.5 (+130) | Total: 8.5
• Moneyline: NYY -124 | TOR +106 

All Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Blue Jays Moneyline vs Yankees +106

As long as they keep giving me the Toronto Blue Jays at plus money, I’m going to jump on it, and ride it, this pony, until it stops paying. One night after mashing the  New York Yankees as the perfect Canada Day celebration, Toronto’s bats were booming again last night. They put up a seven-spot in the first against Will Warren and were leading 8-0 after four innings. They ended up needing every one of those runs as New York stormed back with six in the fifth and ended up tying this game at nine in the eighth. The Jays came through in the bottom half of the inning and now have the chance to sweep the Yankees right out of town, while also overtaking their spot atop the AL East. Last night’s win pulled them even with New York, and tonight they take the division lead.

NYY vs TOR Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

The Blue Jays have quietly carved out one of the more consistent offenses in the big leagues this season. They currently sit third among all MLB clubs in team batting average at .258 while ranking inside the top ten in OPS (.731) and total doubles (142). North of the border, the offense really kicks into gear — Toronto has plated the fourth-most runs at home, where they also rank second in OPS (.801) and hold the third-highest slugging percentage (.456) when swinging the bats at Rogers Centre. Digging into the advanced side, the Jays back it all up with elite expected numbers too, boasting the second-highest xBA in the Majors (.269) and an xwOBA (.339) that checks in at sixth overall.

George Springer has been massive for the Jays in this series. The former Houston Astro has five hits in the last two games, two of which were home runs, seven RBI, four runs, and a stolen base. It’s going to be tough for Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt to pitch to Springer, who, when in a groove, can be one of the hottest hitters around. It doesn’t hurt that the Jays slugger has a .300 career average against Schmidt, to go along with a home run and three walks in 13 plate appearances. Getting Springer at +100 to record 2+bases is chock full of value at plus-money and could be something you want to add to your betting card for tonight.

On the mound, Chris Bassitt should hold it down and continue Toronto’s hot streak. Bassitt has been elite at Rogers Centre, pitching to a 2.60 ERA, compared to his 6.38 ERA on the road. Outside of getting blown up by the Boston Red Sox at Fenway in his last start, the former New York Met has been very solid lately. Take away that previous start, and Bassitt allowed nine runs in four starts, going at least six in each of them. The veteran hurler has also not lost in Toronto all season.

I think the Jays continue to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make sure New York knows they are here to stay and aren’t here to play.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Where to Watch Giants vs Diamondbacks

• Ballpark: Chase Field
• Location: Phoenix, AZ
• Where to Watch: ARID, NBCS-BA
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Spread: SF -1.5 (+145) | Total: 8.5
• Moneyline: SF -122 | ARZ +104  

Giants Moneyline at Diamondbacks -122

The San Francisco Giants have the man they need on the mound to salvage a series split in the desert against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night. Robbie Ray has come back with a vengeance in 2025. After being limited to just eight starts over the past two years, Ray has put Tommy John behind him and is pitching like his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning self. With a sparkling 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, it’s easy to see why the Giants hurler has eight wins already this year. His swing and miss stuff has been on full display with 110 strikeouts in 98 innings this season.

The D-backs already got a sniff of Ray’s whiff rate this season. Arizona struck out nine times in six innings during a loss to the veteran lefty back in mid-May. That whiff rate now sits at 29.7%, near the top of MLB. Ray has some other advanced analytics that also scream out ace. He ranks in the top 10 percent of baseball, boasting a pitching run value score of 10, alongside an xERA of 2.91 and an xBA of .208, both of which are in MLB’s top 10 percent. 

While San Francisco’s offense is subpar, they have improved following the acquisition of Rafael Devers. Finally, with a stud bat in the lineup, the Giants may actually now be able to keep up with some teams offensively. They’ll have an excellent chance facing a pitcher of the caliber of Brandon Pfaadt tonight.

Pfaadt sports a bloated 5.27 ERA, to go along with an equally unimpressive 1.37 WHIP. His advanced analytics paint an even bleaker picture. The D-backs righty has a laughable xERA of 6.80 and xBA of .319, both in the bottom one percent of baseball. His pitching run value score of -13 ranks in the bottom five percent of the league, and his barrel percentage of 13.8, hard hit rate of 49.8%, and average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH all rank in the bottom three percent of MLB.

I like Robbie Ray to hold it down on the mound and the Giants to get to Pfaadt early, like they did in mid-May, when they chased Arizona’s starter after four, scoring four runs. In fact, it was this very Ray vs Pfaadt matchup back on May 13, where San Fran came out victorious. I expect the same result tonight.

SF vs ARZ Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch White Sox vs Dodgers 

• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Location: Los Angeles, CA
• Where to Watch: SportsNet LA, CHSN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Spread: LAD -1.5 (-140) | Total: 9
• Moneyline: CWS +235 | LAD -290  

CWS vs LAD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Dodgers 1.5 Run Line vs White Sox -140

With a chance to finish off a clean sweep of the Chicago White Sox at home, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a prime spot to cash yet another run line ticket for bettors. Los Angeles opened this three-game set by cruising to a comfortable 5-1 victory and followed it up with a dramatic 5-4 walk-off thriller in Game 2, sparked by a three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth that ended on Freddie Freeman’s clutch RBI single. While last night’s nail-biter showed this team’s resilience, it’s hard to see them needing that kind of late-inning magic again against such an overmatched opponent.

At the plate, there’s no debate — the Dodgers field the most productive lineup in the Majors. They sit atop MLB in team batting average at .263 and have plated 25 more runs than any other squad, including the next-best Chicago Cubs. Their advanced hitting profile backs up what you see on the scoreboard, too — they pace the league in xBA (.271), xSLG (.483), xwOBA (.357), and xwOBACON (.418). They’re among the best in making quality contact, too, ranking fourth in barrel rate at 10.3%, fifth in hard hit percentage at 43%, and fifth in average exit velocity at a healthy 90.1 MPH. Powered by sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Max Muncy, when the Dodgers swing, the ball leaves the bat loudly and often.

On the other side, the White Sox continue to look like one of baseball’s most hapless rosters. Chicago owns the American League’s worst record and is only outdone in futility league-wide by the hapless Colorado Rockies. Road games have been a nightmare all season for the South Siders — they’ve mustered just nine wins away from home and bring an anemic offense that would struggle to scare a decent college pitching staff. Their advanced numbers paint the same bleak picture: third-worst in xBA (.236), fourth-worst in xSLG (.388), and 28th in xwOBA (.307). It’s no surprise they’ve managed to score the fewest runs on the road of any MLB club this year, turning each plate appearance into an uphill battle.

Dustin May isn’t exactly a dominant force on the mound — he enters at 4-5 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP — but even average arms have silenced this Chicago lineup all season long. Losing Luis Robert hasn’t helped either, even if his bat wasn’t producing much before he hit the shelf. When you pair LA’s elite offense with Chicago’s lifeless sticks and dreadful travel record, it’s hard to imagine the White Sox keeping pace on Thursday night.

With the straight moneyline juiced beyond reasonable value, backing the Dodgers to cover the -1.5 run line at -140 is the smartest approach for this finale. Expect LA to handle business and send the White Sox packing with another loss in the books.

Thursday’s MLB Best Bets  

• Blue Jays Moneyline vs Yankees +106
• Giants Moneyline at Diamondbacks -122
• Dodgers 1.5 Run Line vs White Sox -140

While I’m making these bets as single plays, if you’re feeling froggy and want to roll them into a parlay, it pays out at +543. Players gotta play, so I ain’t mad at you if you let it roll for the big payout.

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