MLB · 2 months ago

MLB SGP: Braves vs Mets Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB SGP: Braves vs Mets Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves as they wrap up a high-scoring NL East series Thursday night from Citi Field. With New York looking to split the series and recent run totals sailing past betting lines, there’s strong value on a three-leg same game parlay anchored by a play on the moneyline, total, and a strikeout prop.

ATL vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Note: All odds and lines are courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change after the publication of this article.

Where to Watch Braves vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, NY
Where to Watch: MLB Network, SNY, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: ATL -1.5 (+150) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: ATL -104 | NYM -112

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Mets Moneyline (-112)

After a terrible slump that saw New York lose seven straight and nine of 10, there have been signs of life lately that the Mets are ready to put it in the rear-view mirror. Wednesday’s four-run victory over the Braves gave the team a shot at settling for a series split, which gives me hope. New York was finally able to put it all together last night. The Mets got good starting pitching out of Clay Holmes ( 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER), who picked up his NL-leading eighth win, balanced hitting (13 hits, 4 XBH) and some nice work from their closer, as Edwin Diaz cleaned up a mess to log his 16th save of the season.

Now, New York sends Griffin Canning to the mound, who has been a pleasant surprise for the rotation. Canning can tie Holmes for the team and NL lead with his eighth victory tonight. He’s got there powered by a very respectable 3.91 ERA and three quality starts.

Canning will have to best Braves starter Grant Holmes, who has been a pleasant surprise of his own for Atlanta. Holmes is sporting a 3.71 ERA to go along with 97 whiffs in 85 innings. While Holmes has been good, much of his damage has been done facing subpar offenses like the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies. Facing good hitting teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, and Los Angeles Dodgers, he has faltered, never making it to the sixth and allowing at least four runs in each start.

Powered by Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and others, the Mets’ offense is not to be trifled with, which we’ll get into further in just a second. Outside of maybe LA, New York will be the most potent lineup Holmes has seen all year, and he will feel it.

I like the Mets to pick up the series split tonight, with the edge on the mound and at the plate.

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Leg 2: Braves vs Mets Over 8.5 (-118)

This NL East clash has already proven to be a high-octane affair, with the first two games of the series cruising past this number—Tuesday’s 7-4 Braves win and Wednesday’s 7-3 Mets victory. The trend isn’t fluky either; the underlying metrics back up the slugfest potential on both sides.

Elite Offense from the Mets

The Mets’ bats are locked in right now, and the advanced stats tell the story:

New York ranks second in MLB with a .467 expected slugging (xSLG) and a .352 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), highlighting consistent high-quality contact.
They also sit fourth in xwOBA on contact (.406), meaning the damage is real when they connect.
Add to that a 10.4% barrel rate (3rd), a 45.6% hard-hit rate (2nd), and an average exit velocity of 90.5 MPH (3rd), and you’ve got a lineup capable of piling on runs in a hurry.
Their .745 OPS ranks fifth in the majors, and they’re flashing it against both elite and average pitching.

Braves Bring Pop Too

Atlanta’s offensive profile is also built for run production:

The Braves own a 90.0 MPH average exit velocity, just a tick behind New York and good for fourth-best in MLB.
Their .386 xwOBAcon sits just outside the top 10, meaning they’re more than capable of holding up their end of the run-scoring bargain.

With both teams swinging hot bats, producing elite contact quality, and two straight games already going over this total, the Over 8.5 looks like a strong parlay anchor. Expect another double-digit scoring effort as these lineups continue to mash.

Leg 3: Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

As mentioned earlier, Griffin Canning has been a very nice addition to the Mets’ pitching staff. Not only is he getting wins, but he is striking batters out at a clip that aligns with the best rate of his career. The former Los Angeles Angel is just under a K per inning and has shown he has some swing and miss stuff in his bag of tricks.

Canning uses six pitches, leaning heavily on off-speed and breaking stuff to generate outs and misses. His offspeed run value score of five puts him in the top 93% of MLB pitchers, showing just how much he relies on varying speeds. The former UCLA Bruin throws his four seamer 34%, slider 32% and changeup 24% of the time for the bulk of his pitch selection. Canning’s whiff rate is not elite but respectable at 25.5% and he really gets his strikeouts from outpitching his opponents rather than blowing them away.

The Mets starter will have a team that’s no stranger to the strikeout. Atlanta’s 670 Ks on the year puts them in the upper half of Major League Baseball, so it’s not surprising to see them with a mediocre .244 team batting average. With the eighth-fewest batted balls in baseball this season, the Braves swing through many pitches.

I like Canning to go six tonight, which should put him right at this number if he sticks with his K/inning average on the season.

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