MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on TBS: Red Sox vs Phillies Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on TBS: Red Sox vs Phillies Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox are crashing back to Earth, and the Philadelphia Phillies are the ones to continue bringing them down. After cruising into the break on a soft schedule and unsustainable hot streak, Boston’s bats have gone cold—and things won’t get any easier tonight. Cristopher Sánchez is dealing like an ace, the Philly lineup is loaded with thump, and Kyle Schwarber is seeing beach balls at the plate.

Put it all together and we’ve got a same-game parlay that feels like it’s ready to cash. Let’s ride the value on the runline, Sánchez’s K prop, and a power swing from Schwarber, coming off a strong performance in our last SGP.

BOS vs PHI Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Red Sox vs Phillies

Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: FOX, NBCS-PH, NESN (Local)
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+105) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: BOS +166 | PHI -198

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Phillies 1.5 Runline +105

With the Phillies’ moneyline at -198, our only play to maximize value is jumping on the runline in plus money. The steep price tag is warranted for the ML, as Philadelphia is an elite World Series contender, while the pretender Red Sox have started to come back down to Earth after an unsustainable hot streak.

Boston reeled off ten straight wins heading into the All-Star break, but has now lost three of four following the time off. The Sox’s win streak was buoyed by bad teams like the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals, and not a true measuring stick of who this team is. Boston is mostly void of talent on the offensive side aside from Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran, and has shown that coming out of the break, failing to crack two runs in three of their four games. Their advanced metrics paint the picture even clearer.

Boston’s xBA (.254) barely edges out its actual batting average (.251), so it wouldn’t be a shock to see some regression coming. Combine that with the fact that a good chunk of their season-long production came before perennial All-Star and offensive anchor Rafael Devers was dealt to the San Francisco Giants, and it feels like this team is primed to take a step back.

Cristopher Sanchez will be the man, pushing them toward that back step tonight, as the Phillies starter looks to continue his breakout season. Sanchez is fourth in the NL and in the top ten in baseball, sporting a 2.50 ERA this year, to go along with a tidy 1.14 WHIP. With 13 quality starts in 19 turns, and eight wins already, it’s clear that this 28-year-old is locked in on the mound in 2025, and his advanced metrics say exactly that.

Sanchez is in the top three percent of all MLB pitchers with a Pitching Run Value score of 17, to go along with an Offspeed Run Value of 13 that puts him in the top one percent of hurlers. His xERA of 2.99 is in the top 17 percent, and his ground ball rate of 58.4% is in the top four percent of baseball.

He should get plenty of backup from a loaded Phillies offense, featuring finesse like Trea Turner and raw power like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Philadelphia sits tied for sixth with a .254 team batting average, while sitting just outside the top 10 in runs scored and OPS. Their advanced metrics suggest further progression, with an xBA of .263 and an xSLG of .438, compared to their actual slugging percentage of .404. An xwOBA of .337, which puts them seventh in baseball, also suggests more is to come.

I like the Phillies to get to Richard Fitts, making just the 13th start of his career. Over that stretch, Fitts has yet to see the seventh inning and often struggles to go five. His 4.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are mediocre at best, and to slow this potent Philadelphia offense, you need more than average on the mound.

Following last night’s series-opening win, a Phils victory of more than two runs feels oh so right tonight.

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Leg 2: Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts +108

You’ve heard much of the Cy Young-type season Sanchez (-3200 – 3rd in Cy Young Odds) is having for the Phillies, and if not for teammate Zack Wheeler (-110 – T-1 in Cy Young odds) and phenom Paul Skenes (-110 – T-1 in Cy Young odds), the lefty starter might have a shot this year. Regardless, he is having a spectacular campaign and is in line to cash our second leg tonight against the Red Sox.

Boston ranks third in strikeouts on the road (505) and third overall with 920 on the year. The swing-and-miss issues haven’t gone anywhere either — they’re still sitting in the bottom ten in Ks over their last 25 games. That trend doesn’t figure to improve against a guy like Cristopher Sánchez, whose stuff has quietly been electric.

The Dominican southpaw sits 10th in the National League with 122 punchouts in 115 innings and has shown great stuff all year. Sanchez has put up at least six Ks in three of his past four starts, averaging 7.5 a game over that stretch. His advanced metrics show why this electric lefty is nearly unhittable at times. Sanchez spots a 30.9% chase rate to go along with a 29.5% whiff rate, both numbers sitting in the top 20 percent of baseball. The La Romana native also boasts an impressive 26% K rate, which places him near the top 20%.

After Boston’s Ked 16 times last night, including 10 against starter Zack Wheeler, I like them to keep chasing tonight, and Sánchez to keep carving just like he has all season.

Leg 3: Kyle Schwarber 2+ Bases +100

No Phillie has been swinging a hotter bat lately, and really, all season, than Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber leads the team in home runs with 32, RBI with 74, and runs with 70. Those trends have not cooled lately either, as the former Chicago Cubs also leads the team with nine homers, 20 RBI, and 15 runs over the past 30 days. During that stretch, Schwarber has walloped the baseball to a tune of a .373 OBP. This monster masher’s advanced metrics are even scarier.

Schwarber .421 xwOBA is in the top two percent of baseball, while his 59.3% hard hit rate is tied with the great Shohei Ohtani for the best mark in the bigs. The former Colorado Rockie also sports a ridiculous .607 xSLG (fourth in MLB), average exit velocity of 94.3 MPH, which puts him in the top two percent of big league hitters. The big lefty also sits in the top three percent with an 18.5% barrel rate, and his bat speed of 77.0 MPH is good for fourth in the league.

Schwarber has been an even better power hitter at home. In the friendly confines, the Phillies slugger has 16 home runs, 10 doubles and perhaps most importantly a slugging percentage that is 43 points higher than on the road. Schwarber went hitless last night against Walker Buehler and gets a much easier task tonight facing Richard Fitts.

Fitts’ advanced metrics suggest regression is coming. The Red Sox starter sports an xERA of 4.81, which ranks him in the bottom 18 percent of baseball, compared to a 4.21 ERA. Fitts’ xBA of .261 is no better compared to an actual opponent’s batting average of .244. The 26-year-old right-hander gets hit hard and often, with a 10.8% barrel rate, which places him in the bottom 15% and a 44.1% hard-hit rate, ranking him in the bottom 23%.

Look for Schwarber to feed on Fitts, and I don’t even mind playing his HR odds at +240 if you are thinking about making a single play. To round out our parlay, we will stick with the two bases.