MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on MLBN: Braves vs Reds Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on MLBN: Braves vs Reds Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The wheels have come off for the Atlanta Braves, and the Cincinnati Reds are primed to take advantage. Cincy enters this Trade Deadline night clash locked in on a postseason push. At the same time, the Braves continue to spiral—now without Ronald Acuña Jr. and nowhere near their usual offensive firepower. Enter lefty Andrew Abbott, who’s been dominant all season and should feast on a Braves lineup that’s lost its bite.

This three-leg same game parlay fades Atlanta’s broken bats, trusts Abbott to deal, and expects a low-scoring Reds win. Let’s break down the +543 value play for Tuesday night in the Queen City.

ATL vs CIN Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Braves vs Reds

Ballpark: Great American Ball Park
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Where to Watch: MLB Network, FDSOH, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: CIN -1.5 (+110) | Total: 9.5
Moneyline: ATL +152 | CIN -180

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Reds 1.5 Runline +110

The lost season for the Atlanta Braves continues as they run into a motivated Cincinnati Reds team to open a three-game set on MLB Trade Deadline night. Atlanta has dropped eight of their past ten games, while the Reds are just three games back of a wild card spot. Cincy has everything to play for while the banged-up Braves look ready to pack it in.

The Braves just haven’t been able to stay healthy this season. A week after getting Austin Riley back, Atlanta was forced to put their best hitter, Ronald Acuna, on the IL yesterday with a right calf strain. Even before all this went down, the Bravos were struggling at the dish. Over the past two weeks, Atlanta is hitting a paltry .233, ranking 23rd in baseball, while sitting in the middle of MLB with a .740 OPS and 55 runs scored. This is part of a season-long issue as the former NL East contender sits just outside the bottom 10 with an xBA of .250.

While the Reds’ bats have underachieved most of the year with poor advanced metrics, they are much better at home. Cincinnati ranks 12th in runs scored in the friendly confines. The Reds have also been better lately, sitting 14th in runs scored over the past two weeks. They’ll also have a chance to score runs, mostly against Atlanta’s bullpen.

Newly acquired Carlos Carrasco will make his Braves debut after being acquired from the New York Yankees earlier this week. After the Yanks sent Carrasco down after putting up a 5.23 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .298 opponents batting average, he has pitched better in the minors, but can’t be trusted in the rotation. He’ll likely only go a few frames before it becomes a bullpen game for the Braves. Atlanta’s pen has struggled much of the year, sitting 20th with a 4.20 ERA from the seventh inning and beyond.

I like the Reds doing enough on offense, while shutting down Atlanta’s bats to pick up a multi-run win.

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Leg 2: Under 9.5 Total -118

While it may seem somewhat counterintuitive to take the under while playing the runline, there is no way this game should be as high as 9.5 with these offenses, especially considering who is on the mound for Cincinnati tonight.

While we don’t have any trust in Braves starter Carlos Carrasco, the same can not be said about Andrew Abbott. Abbott has been an absolute stud for the Reds this season. The crafty left leads the team and would be tied for second in the league’s ERA race (2.09) if not short a handful of innings from qualifying. In the midst of a career year, Abbott also sports an impressive 1.07 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 103.1 innings. Over his past eight starts, Abbott has allowed two runs or less seven times, which includes six games where he’s allowed one run or less. The Reds ace should have no problem keeping Atlanta’s bats at bay.

Diving into the earlier alluded to Reds metrics, it is not a pretty picture. The Reds sit fourth from the bottom with a .238 xBA, second-last with a .382 xSLG, third-last with a .308 xwOBA, and a xwOBACON second from the floor at .356. Despite sitting 11th in baseball in runs scored (4.55/game), Cincinnati is clearly due for some major regression at the plate.

The Braves, on the other hand, sit 24th in baseball in runs scored (4.1/game) and 21st with a .242 team batting average. As mentioned earlier, they also have an xBA (.250), which puts them near the bottom 10 in baseball. Much of that was also powered by Ronald Acuna Jr., who leads the team with a .306 batting average and 1.005 OPS. As we told you earlier, Acuna is out, leaving a massive hole in Atlanta’s lineup.

An elite pitcher is on the mound tonight, and this total is too high, so don’t be surprised to see it sail below the number tonight.

Leg 3: Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 Strikeouts -152

While the price isn’t the best, the number of strikeouts screams “play me!", and that’s just what I gladly will do here. We mentioned earlier what a career season Andrew Abbott is having, limiting runs scored while keeping runners off base. He’s also been fantastic using the K as a lethal weapon.

The former Virginia Cavalier is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per game this season and has put up at least five Ks in each of his past three starts. Abbott has also had success against the Braves this season. The Reds’ southpaw shut down Atlanta for five scoreless innings, where he gave up just four hits while striking out eight back in May. It wasn’t the first time or last time the Braves struggled against a lefty.

Atlanta sits 21st in baseball with just a .230 batting average facing lefties this season. That goes along with middling numbers in OBP, slugging, and OPS. They haven’t been the best at making contact in general, sitting 11th in team strikeouts (8.7/game) and seventh over the past month, whiffing at a nine-strikeout-per-game rate.

I expect the lifeless Braves to struggle against Abbott and the Reds’ No. 1 to continue dealing in general and against Atlanta.