MLB · 2 weeks ago

MLB on FS1: Dodgers vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FS1: Dodgers vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks Today

It’s the Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, and we’re diving into a same game parlay loaded with plus-money opportunities.

San Diego has been undervalued, despite strong advanced metrics and a lineup that shows signs of a further breakout. The Dodgers, meanwhile, remain dangerous but have cooled off at the plate in recent weeks, setting up a prime spot for value on the Padres side. Add in Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout dominance and Teoscar Hernandez’s track record against left-handed pitching, including tonight’s starter, and we’ve got the perfect mix of edges to target.

Let’s break down each leg and why this matchup sets up for a big payout opportunity.

LAD vs SD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Dodgers vs Padres

Ballpark: PETCO Park
Location: San Diego, California
Where to Watch: FOX Sports 1, SDPA, SportsNet LA
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: LAD -142 | SD +120

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Padres Moneyline +120

I realize it’s the big bad blue Dodgers in town, but the respect they are being paid on the moneyline just means we are going to get paid a little bit more. On the road with a good but not great pitcher on the mound in Tyler Glasnow, I can’t justify LA having a -142 price tag, while we are getting San Diego in very favourable plus money.

Glasnow is coming off his last start, which was against these very same Padres at Dodger Stadium last Sunday. Again, Glasnow was good, but not great, holding the Friars to two earned runs on six hits, including a home run in a no-decision. He lasted five innings in a game San Diego was very much in, until Mookie Betts decided the 5-4 contest with a homer in the bottom of the eighth. The point is, the Padres showed they will hang with Glasnow and the Dodgers, even more so at home.

San Diego’s offense has been flirting with further breaking out all year, and they’ve shown some of it recently. The Padres rank inside the top 10 in MLB with a .260 expected batting average, a full eight points higher than their actual .252 mark, which has been on the climb to put them seventh in the league. That gap screams more positive regression, and the post-trade deadline upswing is likely to continue. Over the past month, the Pads rank seventh in all of baseball, scoring 5.0 runs per game, on a .776 OPS, which also ranks seventh over that span. Their .278 batting average over that stretch is third, to go along with a .351 OBP, which also puts them third in MLB.

LA’s offense, on the other hand, has been trending in the opposite direction. In the top five in most offense categories for the season, the Dodgers rank 17th in runs scored over the past month, averaging 4.6 per game. Their .420 slugging percentage puts them in the middle of the league over that stretch, while they sit 15th in hits as a club.

With Nestor Cortes on the mound for San Diego, there is another slight advantage for the Padres. LA’s splits sag a little against lefties this year. While still respectable, the Dodgers’ OBP is 10 points lower against southpaws. Cortes has also been much better at home this year, pitching to a 3.09 ERA, compared to one that’s 8.74 on the road. Keep in mind the former New York Yankee has just five starts under his belt this season. While these differences may seem slight, they could be the difference in what should be a close game and series.

I like the Padres at home, where they look to secure their fifth straight win and improve their 42-21 record at PETCO.

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Leg 2: Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110

Another pick and another plus-money spot I’m loving here. Despite picking the Padres tonight, I still think San Diego’s bats will have their problems with a strikeout machine like Glasnow. In his last start against the Friars on Sunday, he struck out eight in just five innings. It was Glasnow’s third straight start where he’s struck out at least seven, totaling 23 Ks over that stretch. Over seven appearances, including four starts, the former Tampa Bay Ray has 35 strikeouts in 29 innings to go with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP against San Diego in his career.

To go along with impressive numbers against SD, Glasnow has some impressive advanced metrics this season as well. The former Pittsburgh Pirate‘s average fastball velocity of 96 MPH puts him in the top 22 percent of pitchers, while his .206 xBA ranks in the top nine percent. Glasnow also has a 30.6% K rate, which also lands him in the top nine percent of baseball, while his 29.5% whiff rate puts the 6’8" flamethrower in the top 21 percent.

As a team, the Friars sit with very low strikeout numbers, ranking in the top five in fewest Ks, but some of San Diego’s biggest bats have had trouble with Glasnow. Their biggest bopper, Fernando Tatis, has five Ks in nine at-bats, with a .111 career batting average against the Dodgers starter. Xander Bogaerts has struck out six times, part of a .182 average against Glasnow, while Manny Machado Ked twice last week against him, while hitting just .100 in his career.

I like Glasnow to continue his K ways, as the power righty has most of the year. With at least six strikeouts in eight of his 12 starts in 2025, there is no reason not to be excited about the plus-money price we are getting on LA’s arm.

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Leg 3: Teoscar Hernandez 2+ Bases +105

Rounding out our plus-money smorgasboard, we are going with a hitter who has more experience against the Padres starter than anyone else wearing blue and white.

Going back to their AL East days, Teoscar Hernandez and Nestor Cortes saw plenty of one another when they suited up for the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees for many years. Hernandez definitely got the better of those head-to-head meetings. The Dodgers slugger sports an impressive .375 career batting average against the Friars hurler to go along with a ridiculous .688 slugging percentage. Across 16 at-bats, Hernandez has six hits, three for extra bases, including a home run against the former Milwaukee Brewer.

Teoscar has feasted on left-handed pitching this season. The Dominican vet is hitting .317 with a .622 slugging percentage against southpaws to go along with 13 extra-base hits, including six homers in just 82 at-bats. That is a huge difference compared to his .234 batting average and .428 slugging against righties this year.

Punishing lefties is nothing new for Teoscar Hernandez. Over the course of his career, the former Jay sports a .902 OPS against southpaws, compared to .770 facing right-handed pitching. His career slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers is 106 points higher than his .459 mark against righties.

While it’s been a bit of an inconsistent season for Hernandez, he has shown flashes of that big poppa power in August. The 32-year-old is slugging .522 this month, his highest monthly number since April. Hernandez has hit five homers in August to go along with four doubles and 16 hits. He’s also 10 for 40 with three home runs and seven RBI over the past 10 games.

I like Teo to tee off on Nestor for at least two bags tonight. His success against Cortes and lefties in general gives me confidence that Hernandez can bring out parlay home.