MLB · 3 weeks ago

MLB on FOX: Yankees vs Cardinals Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Yankees vs Cardinals Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Saturday night in Missouri sets up for a classic pitchers’ duel as Max Fried and Sonny Gray take center stage. The New York Yankees’ lefty has been the team’s most reliable arm this season, while Gray enters in peak form after shutting down the Cubs and Dodgers in back-to-back outings. With two struggling offenses and a pair of elite starters, the under looks like the sharp side of this matchup. Fried’s strikeout upside against a swing-happy St. Louis Cardinals lineup and Gray’s ability to miss bats against a slumping Yankees order add extra value.

Tonight’s same game parlay is built for plus-money potential.

NYY vs STL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Yankees vs Cardinals

Ballpark: Busch Stadium
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+115) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: NYY -146 | STL +124

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Game Total Under 7.5 (-110)

We’re going to be treated to a premier pitching matchup in St. Louis on Saturday night as Yankees lefty Max Fried goes up against veteran right-hander Sonny Gray. Both starting pitchers are in the midst of fantastic seasons for their respective clubs.

While Fried has struggled in his past few outings, the former Atlanta Brave is still pitching to a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season. Fried also boasts 135 strikeouts in 144 innings and rarely goes less than five or six innings. His pitching run value score of 14 puts him in the top nine percent of pitchers, and he has been New York’s most valuable arm this year.

On the other side of the mound, Gray is coming off back-to-back outings where he shut down two of the best offenses in baseball. Last Sunday, the former Minnesota Twin stymied the Chicago Cubs for seven innings of five-hit ball, where he allowed just one earned run in the win. Before that, Gray spun seven frames, allowing just one hit and one earned against the defending World Series champion, the Los Angeles Dodgers. While Gray has been good with a season ERA of 4.06, he could be due for a boost with an expected ERA of 3.68 and 1.15 WHIP.

While the Yankees have built a reputation of being bombers, that hasn’t been the case lately. Over their past 12 games, New York’s numbers are terrible at the plate. The Yanks have scored the third-fewest runs (3.3/game) and are hitting under the Mendoza line at .199. Their OPS is just .658 over that span, the fourth-lowest in baseball. The Cards have not been much better.

While St. Louis is hitting a respectable .253 over the past two-plus weeks, they have not been able to manufacture runs. The Cardinals have scored just five more runs than New York, averaging 3.75 per game across that stretch. Their lack of power, with just nine home runs —the second-fewest over the past 15 days —and a .361 slugging percentage (fourth-lowest), has anchored the offense.

With two struggling offenses and a pair of aces on the mound, the under looks like a winning hand on Saturday.

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Leg 2: Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts +120

In a game we are going under, we are also betting on the strikeout being a significant weapon. While Fried’s K numbers are slightly down at 8.4 K/9, they aren’t that far off from his career mark of 8.7 K/9. The California native is holding a K rate of 22.8% on the year, just above the MLB median. His 25.4% whiff rate is above average, and his fastball run value score of 14, which lands in the top five percent of baseball, shows how Fried can fry up that gas. He’s used it to go over this number in two of his past three starts, where he whiffed nine Tampa Bay Rays and seven Texas Rangers.

Spending the first eight seasons of his career in the National League, Fried has seen the Cardinals plenty and tossed the ball by them plenty, too. In addition to a career 1.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, the former first-round pick of the San Diego Padres has 33 strikeouts in 32.2 innings over six appearances against the Lou.

While the Cards are generally not susceptible to the strikeout, they have seen plenty of swing and misses lately. St. Louis ranks seventh over the past 15 days, averaging 9.1 Ks per game. They have also struggled against lefties all year, with the 10th most strikeouts in the league, whiffing once every four at-bats.

I expect Fried to continue his success against the Cardinals, and getting plus-money with such an elite arm on the mound only sweetens the pot.

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Leg 3: Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts +102

Not to be outdone by his counterpart on the mound, Sonny Gray has been even better with the K this year. The Cardinals vet has 148 strikeouts in 135.1 innings this season and has not lifted the pedal from the gas. Gray has 15 strikeouts in his past two starts, going over 6.5 in each while mystifying the Cubs and Dodgers, two offenses much more potent than the Yankees lately. The former Cincinnati Red has had at least five Ks in each of his past 10 starts, averaging 6.3 per game over that stretch.

Gray’s advanced metrics are also quite impressive. He sits in the top 14 percent of baseball with a 31.7% chase rate to go along with a 26.4% whiff rate that lands him in the top 38 percent of pitchers. The 35-year-old’s breaking run value score of eight, which lands in the top seven percent of MLB, shows just how lethal his pitches with movement can be.

Like Fried in the NL, Gray has spent plenty of time pitching in the American League and is very familiar with the Yankees. The former Vanderbilt Commodore has had six career starts against New York and has 34 punchouts across 36.2 innings pitched.

Not to the surprise of anyone, the Yankees, who often live and die by the K, strikeout a lot. New York has the sixth-most Ks in baseball, whiffing 8.7 times per game.

In what I expect to be a pitchers’ duel, Gray will match Fried as both hurlers pile up the strikeouts in St. Louis.