MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on FOX: Phillies vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Phillies vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Zack Wheeler has been dealing like an ace, and tonight’s matchup gives the Philadelphia Phillies a prime opportunity to cash in against the San Diego Padres. The NL Cy Young frontrunner is coming off back-to-back dominant outings—including a complete game one-hitter with 12 strikeouts—and now faces a San Diego team he’s already shut down less than two weeks ago. With the Phillies’ bats backing him against a limited Yu Darvish and a shaky Padres bullpen, this setup screams value. Add in Wheeler’s strikeout upside and Trea Turner’s success versus Darvish and at PETCO Park, and this +573 same game parlay has plenty of edge for savvy bettors.

PHI vs SD Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Phillies vs Padres

Ballpark: PETCO Park
Location: San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+114) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: PHI -162 | SD +138

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Phillies Moneyline -162

Getting a price like this when Zack Wheeler is on the mound is a no-brainer in my opinion. The NL Cy Young favorite (-150) is coming off his second straight absolute masterpiece, this time a complete game, one-hitter where he struck out 12 Cincinnati Reds. Before that, Wheeler went eight strong, shutting out these Padres in Philly, while striking out 10. On the season, the Phillies’ ace is second in baseball with a 2.17 ERA, while carrying the NL’s top WHIP at 0.84. With the roll Wheeler is on (3 ER in past six starts), and his recent dominance of San Diego, there is no reason to think a repeat performance is not on tap.

While the Phillies’ offense hasn’t given Wheeler the best support lately, I expect them to do their part tonight. Philadelphia sits seventh in baseball with a .256 team batting average, while just out of the top 10 in runs scored. They also sit fourth in xBA at .265, seventh with a .338 xwOBA, and eighth with a .441 xSLG mark.

Yu Darvish is making just his second start of the season after missing the first three-plus months with an elbow injury. Darvish went just 3.2 innings while throwing 63 pitches in his season debut last week. The result was mediocre, allowing two earned runs while walking three and giving up three hits. I can’t see Darvish going much more than, say, 75 pitches tonight, so if Philly can get to him early, they can force San Diego’s hand to go to the bullpen.

I like Wheeler to again shut down a Padres team seventh from the bottom in runs scored and pick up another victory along his Cy Young campaign.

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Leg 2: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts +108

I’m shocked we are getting plus-money for a Wheeler strikeout prop. As already mentioned, Wheeler mowed down the Padres just two weeks ago, picking up 10 Ks. It was his first of two games, going double digits in strikeouts, followed by getting 12 punchouts against the Reds. There is no reason to think Wheeler’s recent K binge is about to stop.

On the season, the former New York Met leads the National League with 148 strikeouts in just 116 innings pitched. That works out to being about 1.3 per inning, so if Wheeler can go even five, his average takes him right to this number. The dominant hurler sits in the top 16 percent of baseball with a 30.9% whiff rate to go along with a 30.6% chase rate. His 33.6% K rate leads baseball and has the second-lowest hard hit rate (31.7%) in baseball. You can’t hit what you can’t see.

With an xERA (2.21) in the top two percent of MLB and a xBA in the top four percent of baseball (1.92), Wheeler has been nearly unhittable all year.

While San Diego does not generally strike out a lot, some of their advanced metrics paint a picture of a struggling lineup. The Padres have the third-worst barrel percentage in baseball, at 7.1%, and the second-worst hard-hit rate, at 36.5%.

While another 10-K performance, like on June 30th against this club, is unlikely, seven seems more than within reach and has the added bonus of being in the plus-money range.

Leg 3: Trea Turner 2+ Bases +100

Spending a few years in the division with the Los Angeles Dodgers gave Trea Turner a few more looks at Yu Darvish than most of his teammates. Turner has 23 career plate appearances against Darvish, and he’s taken advantage of his matchups with the veteran pitcher. The former Washington National sports a .304 career batting average to go along with a gaudy .652 slugging percentage against Darvish. Among his seven hits are two home runs and a pair of doubles.

Not only has Turner shown extra-base power against Darvish, but against the entire league. The hard-hitting middle infielder has 11 home runs to go along with 18 doubles and two triples on the season. Turner sits in the top four percent of baseball with a Baserunning Run Value score of four, meaning he can routinely stretch a single to a double. He is also in the top 22 percent with a Batting Run Value of 11.

Turner has relished his meetings with the Padres, carrying a .304 career batting average to go along with nine home runs and 18 doubles in 270 at-bats. Much of that success has come at PETCO, where Turner enjoys a .300 career average and has hit seven of those nine round trippers. Add in nine doubles in San Diego, and there is no reason to think Trea can’t keep raking against the Padres.