MLB · 2 months ago

MLB on FOX: Mets vs Phillies Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Mets vs Phillies Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The New York Mets continue a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park, taking on the Philadelphia Phillies in a high-stakes Saturday night showdown on FOX. With a struggling road stretch behind them and a favorable matchup against Phillies rookie Mick Abel, the Mets look primed for a bounce-back performance. Fueled by Juan Soto’s scorching June, Pete Alonso’s clutch power, and an elite lineup that ranks near the top of the league in many advanced metrics, New York is in a strong spot to deliver value. We break down tonight’s key odds, prop bets, and same game parlay value for this pivotal NL East clash.

NYM vs PHI Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Note: All odds and lines are courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change after the publication of this article.

Where to Watch Mets vs Phillies

Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+146) | Total: 10
Moneyline: NYM -104 | PHI -112

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Mets Moneyline (-104)

The New York Mets have been punching below their weight lately, and I expect that to change on Saturday night. New York has dropped four straight road games and has won just three times over their past ten. Hardly the resume you want to bring to the job interview for a team stacked with this much talent.

Juan Soto is finally starting to find his way as a Met after an icy-cold start in his new New York home. Soto is sporting a ridiculous .481 OBP in the month of June, around 130 points better than in his first two months of the season. He should continue his hot streak against a young pitcher in Mick Abel, tonight. While Abel has been good, with an ERA of 2.21 in 20 innings, he hasn’t exactly faced the caliber of Soto’s Mets. The Phillies hurler has benefited from going up against some of the worst offenses in the NL, like the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Mets’ offense is not them.

New York has been one of the better collections of bats on the road this season, ranking 11th in away runs scored. The Mets are the top team in the NL in Barrels per Plate Appearance (7.1) on the season overall, second in hard hit percentage (46%), and also second in average exit velocity (90.6 MPH). All that means is that New York pounds the baseball regularly and with ferocity.

During this tough 10-game stretch, the bats have not been the problem, but pitching has not held up its end. Griffin Canning must do a better job than the 5.20 ERA the team has allowed over the past week and a half. While I’d like to see Canning improve on the amount of baserunners he allows (1.40 WHIP), he’s done more than live up to expectations this season. The former LA Angel sports a 6-3 mark to go along with a 3.80 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 68.2 innings. Canning has already bested the Phillies this season after throwing five innings and allowing just one run in a win back in late April.

Before Friday’s 10-2 pounding, the Mets came into this series, beating the Phillies in all three season meetings. I expect them to go back to that trend tonight with a nice price tag of -104.

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Leg 2: Pete Alonso RBI (+110)

Pete Alonso has been the Metropolitans most consistent hitter all season. The Polar Bear leads the club with 64 RBI and 18 home runs in 76 games. Alonso is a fixture in the cleanup slot, seeing talented table setters like Francisco Lindor (.500 OBP vs PHI this season), Brandon Nimmo (13 for 39 over his past 10), and Juan Soto (we mentioned his ridiculous OBP in June) hit ahead of him. Alonso should see plenty of opportunities with runners on base, where he is hitting .318 on the season to go along with a .338 mark with runners in scoring position.

While some of Alonso’s traditional stats paint a pretty picture, his advanced analytics are a Picasso. The Mets slugger sits in the 98th percentile with a batting run value score of 23. He also excels with a .434 xwOBA (98th percentile), .636 xSLG (99th percentile), and a barrel percentage in the 99th percentile, at 20.9.

While Alonso has yet to face Phillies starter Mick Abel, he has done damage against the team. The 30-year-old career New York Met is hitting .313, with a 1.014 OPS to go along with three RBI in four games against Philadelphia this season. His home run last night only added to Alonso’s stellar road numbers this year. The former 50-HR man has a 1.019 OPS, 12 home runs, and 38 RBI in 39 away games in 2025.

Getting better than even money makes it an easy choice to roll with Polar tonight.

Leg 3: Mets Over 4.5 Runs (-125)

If the Mets are going to win this game, as I predict they will do, their offense will have to continue doing work. While I don’t mind Canning on the mound, New York’s bread and butter is its bats. They’ve already scored five against these Phillies twice, while scoring four runs in Game 3 of their series at Citi Field earlier this season. Scoring two runs on three extra base hits (two homers) in the series opener is not a trend I see continuing. Don’t forget, they were facing perennial Cy Young candidate, Phillies undisputed ace, and former Met Zack Wheeler yesterday. Going from battling such a seasoned, proven veteran to a rookie still figuring things out should do wonders for an elite New York offense.

The Mets have an impressive run differential of +60 and are in the top half of baseball in runs scored this season. New York sits in the top three percent of MLB teams with a .352 xWOBA and 46% hard-hit rate in 2025. They are also in the top 10 percent with a 10.4 barrel percentage, and their 90.6 MPH average exit velocity puts the Mets in the top seven percent of baseball.

While New York’s numbers are impressive, they have only scratched the surface. The fact that they’ve been able to score and outscore with the worst BABIP (.236) in baseball shows this team is headed toward further positive regression.

Against a team they have consistently put up runs against, I like the Mets to continue hitting and score at least five tonight.

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