MLB · 2 days ago

MLB on Fox: Mariners vs Guardians Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on Fox: Mariners vs Guardians Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians square off tonight in Cleveland, and the betting angles are too good to ignore. Seattle comes in with its back against the wall, losers of six straight on the road, but they have the firepower to flip that script. Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez provide the thunder while the rest of the lineup can grind out runs with speed and plate discipline.

On the other side, Cleveland’s offensive profile screams regression, and facing Logan Gilbert makes it even tougher to break through. This parlay ties together value on Seattle’s moneyline, Cleveland’s run struggles, and Gilbert’s dominance.

Let’s get it!

SEA vs CLE Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Mariners vs Guardians

Ballpark: Progressive Field
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (+120) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: SEA -136 | CLE +116

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Mariners Moneyline -132

The Mariners have not been great on the road this season, going 31-36 away from home and currently riding a six-game losing streak on the road. That slide comes to an end in Cleveland tonight.

Even though Seattle has two of the most lethal home run hitters in the league in Cal Raleigh (MLB-leading 50 HRs) and Eugenio Suarez (42 HRs), they also do some of their best work playing small ball. The M’s sit third in Major League Baseball with 134 stolen bases this season in 166 attempts, so the green light is always on in the Emerald City. They also rank eighth in the league with 21 sacrifice bunts and ninth in drawing walks. Seattle can be a pesky opponent, making pitchers work and putting pressure on at the plate and on the basepaths—something they can certainly do against a Cleveland pitcher headed toward regression.

Gavin Williams has picked up eight wins this season, on the strength of a 3.36 ERA and 135 strikeouts in 136.2 innings pitched. Those numbers appear impressive on the surface, but when you weigh them against a 1.32 WHIP and poor advanced metrics, the shine dulls on the Guardians starter. Williams has an expected ERA more than a run higher than his actual earned run average, at 4.43. Looking further, Williams’ opponents’ batting average of .215 is considerably lower than his xBA of .245, so there is no reason to think the M’s can’t get to him.

Small ball or no small ball, Seattle has been able to manufacture runs this season. The Mariners sit on the outskirts of the top 10, averaging 4.6 runs per game. Their OPS for the year is at .729, also just outside the top 10. Seattle has an interesting offensive portfolio, as they can manufacture runs the hard way, but also do damage with the long ball. They are third in the bigs with 192 round trippers on the season, primarily powered by the middle of their order, specifically Raleigh and Suarez. The point is, Seattle has multiple ways to do damage at the plate and will be tough on Cleveland’s pitching tonight.

I like Seattle to snap their road skid and get it done against the Guardians.

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Leg 2: Guardians Under 3.5 Runs -142

The Guardians have not been an intimidating offense all season. Cleveland continually struggles to manufacture runs, and that trend is unlikely to change tonight against Seattle.

They aren’t just slumping — the underlying data says this lineup is built on shaky ground. They sit dead last in expected batting average (.230), expected slugging percentage (.375), and expected wOBA (.297), confirming that their struggles are more structural than merely unlucky. The quality of contact only makes things worse. With a 6.7% barrel rate (bottom two) and a league-worst 35.6% hard-hit rate, most of their swings generate neither the exit velocity (88.3 MPH, tied for lowest in MLB) nor the launch angle to threaten pitchers consistently. That profile forces them to string together multiple soft knocks just to scratch across runs, a formula that rarely works against competent arms.

Over the past 30 days, things have not gotten better. Cleveland is hitting just .207 in the last month, while sporting a .271 OBP, .326 slugging percentage, and .597 OPS, all the worst marks in baseball over that span. The Guardians averaged just 3.5 runs per game across those 25 games, also the worst in baseball.

Facing an elite pitcher in Logan Gilbert, who sports a 3.69 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .209 opponents’ batting average, things will not get any easier for the Guardians tonight. We’ll take the under, and seeing them held off the scoreboard entirely would not at all be a surprise.

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Leg 3: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts -144

Not only has Gilbert put together a nice stretch by limiting runs and baserunners, but the strikeout is a major weapon for the big righty. Gilbert has 138 Ks in 97.2 innings, good for a ridiculous 12.7 K/9 rate, which would lead the league, ahead of Zack Wheeler‘s 11.7 if he had enough innings to qualify. His advanced metrics paint an even clearer picture of his lethality.

The Stetson University alum sports a 34.7% K rate, which ranks him in the top two percent of all big league arms. Gilbert’s 33.4% whiff rate puts him in the top six percent of the league, while his 30.5% chase rate lands him in the upper 23 percent of baseball. The M’s hurler averages 95.5 MPH on his fastball and throws a wide variety of pitches to punch batters out.

Gilbert is coming off a masterful performance against the Athletics in his last start six days ago. The 28-year-old spun six near-flawless innings, allowing just three hits, one run, and, most importantly for our illustration, 13 strikeouts. It was the sixth outing in his past seven, where Gilbert Ked at least six batters, averaging 9.7 punch outs in those starts.

We’ve talked about Cleveland’s offensive ineptness, and while they are not terrible at striking out (8.3 per game), Gilbert is a different animal and should have them guessing all night.