MLB · 2 months ago

MLB on FOX: Cubs vs Astros Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX: Cubs vs Astros Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Looking to catch the highly anticipated showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas? The Cubs look to cool down one of the hottest teams in baseball, as Houston is riding a dominant home win streak and comes into tonight’s game with momentum after a strong opening win in this series.

With first pitch set for 7:15 p.m. ET, fans can watch the action live on FOX or stream it through Fubo for flexible viewing wherever you are. From Lance McCullers’ strikeout potential to Jose Altuve’s continued surge at home, there’s no shortage of storylines or betting angles for this matchup.

Let’s get to our same game parlay and explain why you should side with us.

CHC vs HOU Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Note: All odds and lines are courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change after the publication of this article.

Where to Watch Cubs vs Astros

Ballpark: Daikin Park
Location: Houston, Texas
Where to Watch: FOX
Where to Stream: Fubo
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+160) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: CHC +100 | HOU -118

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Astros Moneyline (-118)

The Astros may be playing their best baseball of the season right now, and that’s really saying something considering the kind of first half they’ve had. While many expected the aging ‘Stros to regress, they’ve done anything but, already winning 49 games and sporting the third-best record in baseball. Much of that winning has come recently, as Houston is rocking a nine-game home win streak, with five in a row overall, and eight victories in its past 10.

Houston got off on the right foot in this series, pounding out 10 hits for seven runs, to pick up the victory in Friday’s opener. As has been the case all year, the Astros continue to get production from multiple weapons, with Cam Smith, Victor Caratini, and Yainer Diaz doing the damage last night.

Tonight, Houston sends Lance McCullers to the mound to duel Colin Rea. While it’s not vast, I’ll give the edge to McCullers and the Stros on the mound tonight. Both pitchers have ERAs north of four, but Houston’s hurler has much better swing and miss stuff. McCullers already has 39 Ks in 29 innings, while Rea will see his share of contact with Houston’s bats. Lance sports an elite 28.5% whiff rate, putting him in the top 84 percent of MLB.

Rea’s advanced analytics paint a much grimmer picture. The Cubs starter is in the bottom eight percent of baseball with an opponent’s average exit velocity at 91.5 MPH. Rea sits in the bottom five percent, allowing an xBA of .297, bottom nine percent giving up a .498 xSLG, and lowest 10 percent with a .364 xwOBA.

Chicago’s offense has the edge, sitting in the top 10 percent with a .465 xSLG and .345 xwOBA. That said, the Astros sit fifth with a team batting average of .256 and have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

I like Houston to continue its winning ways against a pitcher they should be able to get to early.

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Leg 2: Jose Altuve to Record 2+ Bases (+115)

Jose Altuve has been the heart and soul of Houston’s offense since the invention of Texas Toast. In his 15th year in the bigs (all with the Astros), Altuve continues to be a tough out at the plate. The veteran slugger is only hitting .263 on the year, but that jumps to .317 at home. At Daikin Park, Altuve has eight of his 12 home runs and 16 of his 22 extra-base hits.

Altuve has also been much more effective against RHPs this season. Despite also hitting from the right side himself, the Venezuela vet is hitting .276 against righties with a .425 slugging percentage. Ten of his round trippers and 19 extra base hits have come against right-handed pitchers.

The 35-year-old also has some success against tonight’s starting pitcher. Altuve is slugging .833 in six at-bats against Colin Rea, which includes a home run. With Rea allowing an 11 percent barrel rate and 115.7 Max EV that sits in the bottom six percent of Major League Baseball, he doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing batters. Add an xERA of 5.23 that puts him into the bottom 10% of baseball, and the matchup clearly favors Altuve.

I like the long-time Astro to most likely check this leg off quickly with an extra base hit, although he has multi-hit ability available should we need it.

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Leg 3: Lance McCullers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

As I mentioned earlier, McCullers has some solid swing-and-miss stuff that will come in handy tonight against the Cubs. Houston’s hurler is no stranger to the strikeout, using it as a featured part of his arsenal. McCullers averages well over a K per inning with 839 whiffs in 748 innings pitched.

He’s continued that rate this season, with 39 strikeouts in 29 frames. McCullers has hit at least six Ks in four straight starts and has not missed our number this year when going over four innings. His advanced analytics tell part of the story, with a 28.5% K rate, landing him in the top 87% of big league pitchers. McCullers’ 27.2% whiff rate is nothing to sneeze at, and while he doesn’t get many to chase, he can blow the ball right past opposing bats.

While the Cubs generally don’t strike out much, that hasn’t been the case over the past week. Chicago has had trouble making contact with the 17th most whiffs over the past seven days. Part of that came in the series opener when the Cubs whiffed nine times, including three by Ian Happ.

I like McCullers to be sharp in his first start in over two weeks as he comes off the IL following a foot sprain. If Houston is to make it two straight against the Cubs, they need their pitcher to get it done on the mound, and I see McCullers coming out aggressive.

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