MLB · 1 month ago

MLB on FOX Bristol Speedway Classic: Braves vs Reds Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB on FOX Bristol Speedway Classic: Braves vs Reds Same Game Parlay Picks Today

The stage doesn’t get much bigger than this. The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds square off in the final game of their three-game set under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway, with over 85,000 fans packing the house for MLB’s first-ever game in Tennessee. The series is tied 1–1, and the rubber match carries serious playoff implications for the Reds, while Atlanta continues to fight through injuries and underperformance.

With a prime-time setting, explosive offensive potential, and shaky bullpens on both sides, this matchup sets up perfectly for a high-scoring, high-stakes showdown—and we’re leaning into it with a three-leg same game parlay.

Where to Watch Braves vs Reds

Ballpark: Bristol Motor Speedway
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
Where to Watch on TV: FOX
Where to Stream: FUBO, FOX Sports app
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: ATL -1.5 (+134) | Total: 8
Moneyline: ATL -118 | CIN +100

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Reds Moneyline +100

After splitting the first two games of this three-game set, the Atlanta Braves face the Cincinnati Reds in the rubber match from Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee. The game is expected to be seen by the largest live crowd in MLB history with more than 85,000 tickets said to have been already sold.

Atlanta has dropped eight of their past ten games, while the Reds continue to battle for a playoff spot, sitting just 3.5 games back of a wild card spot. Cincy has everything to play for while the banged-up Braves haven’t looked right all season.

Injuries continue to pile up for the Braves. Just a week removed from getting Austin Riley back in the lineup, Atlanta had to place Ronald Acuna Jr. on the IL this week with a right calf strain—another tough blow to an already depleted offense. Even before Acuña went down, the bats weren’t exactly clicking. Over the last two weeks, the Braves have managed just a .236 average (22nd in MLB) with a .716 OPS and 62 total runs, hovering around league average in production. It’s been a frustrating trend all season, with Atlanta’s expected batting average sitting at .250—just barely outside the league’s bottom third.

While the Reds’ bats have underperformed for most of the year, with poor advanced metrics, they have shown improvement lately. Cincinnati is sitting 12th in runs scored over the past two weeks, to go along with the sixth-best OBP in baseball at .339. Add a top-10 batting average of .252 over that span, and the Reds hitters have been getting it done recently.

This game is a true neutral-site game for both teams, with Bristol pretty much right in the middle of Cincinnati and Atlanta. Still, I’ll give the advantage to the Reds as the Braves are just 20-37 away from home and 17 games under .500 overall on the season.

Even with their best pitcher, Spencer Strider, on the mound, Atlanta does not deserve to be the favorite against anyone right now, especially on the road. I like the Reds to clinch the series, as wins become increasingly crucial for them to compete in the wild-card race.

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Leg 2: Over 8 Runs Game Total -120

This series already exploded once with a 12–11 extra-inning thriller that featured a wild 16-run eighth inning—yes, 16 runs in one frame. Both teams flashed serious pop, and with another game in a made-for-TV venue like Bristol Motor Speedway, the setting alone hints at more fireworks.

Atlanta may have underwhelmed at the plate for stretches this year, but when they click, they explode. Twelve runs in Game 2, a 16-batter eighth inning—they’ve got the ceiling to push an over almost singlehandedly. Cincinnati’s lineup isn’t far behind. They’ve been aggressive and opportunistic, hanging crooked numbers in bunches when opposing pitching cracks.

While Spencer Strider‘s strikeout stuff is still elite, he’s had an up-and-down campaign, sitting at 5–8 with a 3.71 ERA. His swing-and-miss game is still very real, but he’s been prone to occasional big innings when command slips. On the other side, Cincinnati rolls out Chase Burns, who’s still searching for his first win and enters with a rough 6.26 ERA. The rookie has electric velocity, but location issues and inconsistency have plagued him in limited big-league action. With one pitcher capable of dominance but volatile, and another still trying to find his footing, the door is wide open for runs—especially if either team gets into the bullpen early.

The bullpens for both sides have been mediocre at best. Atlanta sits 21st with an ERA of 4.29 for their relievers, while the Reds are middling with a 3.90 ERA. If this game gets out of hand for the starters, there is not a ton of confidence in either pen shutting down the offense.

Add in the spectacle of the Speedway Classic—over 85,000 fans, prime-time cameras, NASCAR-infused energy—and you’ve got the ingredients for a game that plays fast and loud. Games like this rarely stay low-scoring, especially when both lineups are coming off slugfests and confidence is high.

At just eight runs, the total leaves room for variance, but the upside here is clear. With momentum, venue energy, and two unpredictable arms on the mound, the over is a smart piece to anchor your SGP.

Leg 3: Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts +118

Getting Chase Burns at plus money against a lifeless Atlanta offense is music to my ears. While Burns’ overall pitching stats are not very impressive (6.26 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), the man can throw gas. The Wake Forest alum has logged at least seven Ks in five os his six big league starts. The one miss was when he got rocked by the Boston Red Sox in his second career start, lasting just a third of an inning. Since then, he’s been on fire and has 10 Ks in each of his past three starts.

While not having enough innings to qualify for league-leading stats, Burns’ advanced metrics are very impressive. His 35.7% K rate bests league leader Tarik Skubal, while Burns’ 31.1% whiff rate would sit fifth among top-level starters like Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler. The top prospect’s 32.1% chase rate would also land him among the game’s best.

The Braves’ offense has underwhelmed for much of the season, ranking 21st in the majors with a .242 team batting average. The rest of the profile doesn’t shine much brighter, with middle-of-the-road numbers in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Making contact has also been a recurring issue—Atlanta sits 11th in team strikeouts at 8.7 per game, and over the past month, that number has crept up to nine per game, the seventh-highest mark in the league. They also sit around the middle of the league in chase rate (27.8%) and whiff rate (24.7%).

I like Burns to come out pumped for this one, which is kind of a homecoming. The Reds fireballer grew up just outside of Nashville in Gallatin, Tennessee, and pitched for the Tennessee Volunteers before transferring to become a Demon Deacon.