MLB · 17 hours ago

MLB on Fox: Astros vs Rangers Same Game Parlay Picks Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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The reports of the Texas Rangers’ death have been greatly exaggerated. After taking the opener of this three-game set, Texas has moved four games back of the Houston Astros for the division lead and a half game back of the Seattle Mariners for the final wild card spot. Written off just a few weeks ago, the Rangers are very much in play and look to inch closer to both division rivals in a game that has a pitcher’s duel written all over it.

We head to the West for our Primetime Saturday night special, a three-game parlay.

HOU vs TEX Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Astros vs Rangers

Ballpark: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: FOX
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: HOU -1.5 (+180) | Total: 7
Moneyline: HOU +102 | TEX -120

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Rangers Moneyline -120

We’re rolling with Texas on the moneyline against Houston, and it starts with Jacob deGrom. The Rangers ace finally looks like himself again, stringing together his best campaign in years. Through 150.1 innings — his heaviest workload since 2019 — deGrom has racked up 11 wins, 13 quality starts, and a sparkling 2.69 ERA. His 0.92 WHIP ranks second-best in MLB, a reminder that when he’s healthy, there’s no one better at shutting down an opponent’s lineup. Every time he takes the ball, Texas has a legitimate edge.

That edge has been crucial because the Rangers’ offense hasn’t been much to write home about most of the season. They sit 19th in runs scored at 4.2 per game, dragged down by extended absences for Corey Seager, who has been on the IL since August 27th, Marcus Semien, who is out for the season with a foot injury, and now Adolis Garcia, who just went on the IL this week with a quad issue. Despite the injury problems, the Rangers’ offense has been able to turn things around at the plate lately.

It’s incredible to see that in the face of adversity, the bats are waking up. In the past month, Texas has averaged 5.1 runs per game — good for ninth in baseball — and that uptick has been the missing piece. The Rangers sit seventh with a .766 OPS over the past 30 days to go along with a .262 batting average, which also lands them seventh. Young hitters like Wyatt Langford and Michael Helman have stepped up in the absence of their veteran core and have Texas on the verge of a playoff spot.

Put it all together, and the formula is clear: a healthy deGrom setting the tone, a bullpen that slams the door, and an offense finally showing signs of life. That’s more than enough to back the Rangers at -120 against their in-state division rivals.

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Leg 2: Game Total Under 7 (-118)

If Tarik Skubal (-3000) of the Detroit Tigers weren’t running away with his second straight Cy Young award, Hunter Brown and the aforementioned deGrom would be battling for the hardware. The pair is tied for third on the odds board at +7500, but would undoubtedly be in contention in any other year.

We’ve talked about deGrom’s bounce-back campaign, so let’s dive deeper into Houston’s young starter for tonight. Brown has been elite all season, sporting the second-best ERA in the league at 2.34, two slots ahead of deGrom. The Detroit native brings in a 10-7 mark into tonight’s start to go along with a 1.01 WHIP, .199 opponents batting average, and 182 Ks in 161.2 innings.

Brown’s advanced metrics are equally impressive. A pitching run value score of 29 lands him in the top two percent of MLB hurlers, while his average exit velocity of just 86.2 MPH puts him in the top five percent, showing the lack of quality contact Brown allows. As good as the Rangers offense has been lately, Houston’s blossoming ace has all the tools to slow them down. The same goes for the side of the mound.

In addition to deGrom, the Rangers have had elite pitching across the board in 2025. Texas owns MLB’s best team ERA (3.44) and WHIP (1.17), anchored by tonight’s starter and a bullpen that quietly ranks top five across the board. Even before the trade deadline, which netted the Rangers SP Merrill Kelly and RP Phil Maton, the relief corps was seventh in ERA (3.66) and third in WHIP (1.22). With deadline pickup, Maton the pen got even better as he brings a 2.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20 holds, and two saves.

With two elite starters and two very capable bullpens, this game has all the makings of a low-scoring one. Let’s cash that under.

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Leg 3: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts +116

For our lone prop leg of this parlay, we’re riding with deGrom’s strikeouts over against Houston. The Rangers ace hasn’t just been locking down lineups with his low ERA, WHIP, and opponents’ batting average — he’s still racking up punchouts at an elite clip. His 9.64 K/9 ranks top 15 in MLB, and the advanced profile shows just how nasty he’s been.

deGrom’s heater averages 97.5 MPH, sitting in the top eight percent of big-league arms, and it plays even better than it looks. He’s generating a 32.6% chase rate (top 10%) and a 30.1% whiff rate (top 17%), fueling a strikeout rate of 27.7% that keeps him among the game’s best. The strikeout hasn’t just been a weapon this season — it’s been a calling card. deGrom has gone over six Ks in three of his past four and six of his past eight starts, averaging 7.7 Ks per outing in those six starts.

Now the matchup: Houston hasn’t been a heavy strikeout team across the season, ranking just 23rd overall. But lately, they’ve been swinging and missing a lot more. Over the past month, the Astros rank seventh in strikeouts, averaging 8.6 Ks per game. That recent trend puts them right in the danger zone against deGrom’s power arsenal, an arsenal they’ve been victimized by this season.

The former New York Met has been well on top of his game in two starts against the Stros this year. In his first outing back in May, deGrom tossed eight shutout frames, giving up five hits while striking out seven. Fast forward to mid-July, and the 37-year-old was at it again, going six strong, giving up four hits, two earned runs, and setting down eight via the K.

I like the Rangers’ ace to come out firing against a lineup he knows well, and for his strikeout prop over to come through once again.