MLB Futures: MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

With the 2025 MLB season entering the second half, the player futures markets at BetMGM are heating up across MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races. Standout performers like Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal, and Jacob Wilson are making strong cases in their respective categories — and attracting heavy betting action along the way.

Let’s dive into the current favorites, top ticket-getters, and biggest sportsbook liabilities for each major award in both leagues.

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AL MVP Race: Judge Leads, But Bettors Eye Witt & Raleigh

• Odds Leader: Aaron Judge (-650)
• Highest Ticket %: Bobby Witt Jr. (20.9%)
• Highest Handle % & Liability: Cal Raleigh (33.0%)

Aaron Judge continues to lead the AL MVP race with a league-best 1.194 OPS and 35 home runs. However, bettors are finding value elsewhere — namely Bobby Witt Jr., who has quietly posted a .294 average (ninth in the AL), 25 stolen bases (fourth), 14 home runs, and 54 RBIs.

Cal Raleigh, though, is commanding the handle. With a league-leading 38 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a 1.011 OPS, he’s the sportsbooks’ biggest liability and a sneaky dark horse should Judge’s production cool off.

AL Cy Young: Skubal Takes Control, Fried Drawing Risk

• Odds Leader: Tarik Skubal (-225)
• Highest Ticket % & Handle %: Tarik Skubal (11.8%, 26.6%)
• Biggest Liability: Max Fried

Tarik Skubal has emerged as the clear AL Cy Young favorite, backed by elite stats: second in the league with 10 wins, tied for first with a 2.23 ERA, and leading the AL with a sparkling 0.83 WHIP. His dominance has made him both the most popular and most-backed arm in the market.

Max Fried, meanwhile, is a growing liability for books. The New York Yankees ace leads the AL with 11 wins and ranks in the top five in both ERA (2.43) and WHIP (1.01). If he keeps pace, this two-man race could get much tighter.

AL Rookie of the Year: Wilson Rising, Caglianone Fading

• Odds Leader: Jacob Wilson (+100)
• Highest Ticket %: Jac Caglianone (12.3%)
• Highest Handle % & Liability: Jacob Wilson (33.2%)

Jac Caglianone entered 2025 as a high-profile prospect but has struggled, hitting just .140 with 4 HR and 7 RBIs. Meanwhile, Jacob Wilson is making his mark in a big way. The contact machine ranks second in all of MLB with a .332 average and has chipped in 9 home runs and 42 RBIs.

He’s now the odds leader, and bettors are backing him with confidence. With one of the most balanced rookie profiles, Wilson is quickly turning into a heavy favorite — and a costly one for sportsbooks.

NL MVP: Ohtani Dominates, PCA a Major Risk

• Odds Leader: Shohei Ohtani (-800)
• Highest Ticket %: Elly De La Cruz (12.4%)
• Highest Handle %: Shohei Ohtani (38.9%)
• Biggest Liability: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Shohei Ohtani is once again rewriting the record books. The Dodgers superstar leads the National League with 32 home runs, a .988 OPS, 60 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases — and he’s the runaway favorite in the NL MVP race.

Still, bettors are sprinkling on value plays. Elly De La Cruz, with 25 steals, 18 homers, and 63 RBIs, leads in ticket count. But Pete Crow-Armstrong — sporting 25 home runs, 71 RBIs, and an .847 OPS — is the biggest liability. If he continues to surge and the Chicago Cubs stay hot, this race could tighten.

NL Cy Young: Wheeler Leads, Skenes Surging, Yamamoto Risky

• Odds Leader: Zack Wheeler (-145)
• Highest Ticket %: Zack Wheeler (13.1%)
• Highest Handle %: Paul Skenes (26.8%)
• Biggest Liability: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Zack Wheeler has put together a Cy Young-worthy campaign, pacing the NL in WHIP (0.86) while posting a 2.38 ERA and 154 strikeouts in 122 innings. He’s the betting favorite — and deservedly so.

Paul Skenes, though, is drawing heavy money. His NL-best 2.01 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 121 innings make him the most backed arm by handle. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, fifth in ERA (2.59) and sixth in WHIP (1.04), is still in the conversation — but remains the biggest liability due to early-season action.

NL Rookie of the Year: Misiorowski Leads, Baldwin Close Behind

• Odds Leader: Jacob Misiorowski (-235)
• Highest Ticket %: Matt Shaw (11.5%)
• Highest Handle % & Liability: Drake Baldwin (18.6%)

Jacob Misiorowski has been dominant in a small sample: 4-1 record, 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in five starts. He’s the odds-on favorite, but bettors aren’t sold just yet.

Matt Shaw is seeing the most ticket volume despite a .198 average, while Drake Baldwin — who’s batting .271 with an .830 OPS, 11 homers, and 32 RBIs — has become the most financially backed and dangerous option for sportsbooks in this race.

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The 2025 player futures markets are still evolving, but we’ve already seen major shifts. Cal Raleigh, Tarik Skubal, Jacob Wilson, and Paul Skenes are becoming major liabilities thanks to elite production and surging support. Meanwhile, Ohtani and Judge continue to lead MVP races — but challengers are lurking.

For bettors, now is the time to find value before the odds shift further. For sportsbooks, there’s already plenty of sweat building around rising stars.