MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 6)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 6)

We’ve got two edges worth riding on tonight’s MLB slate—one powered by an elite offense in a hitter’s park and the other driven by two lineups colder than a Seattle breeze. Boston’s bats have been red-hot at Fenway and draw a vulnerable road arm in Michael Wacha, while the Mariners and White Sox are both scuffling at the plate heading into a pitcher-friendly matchup.

Let’s go 2-2 on our baseball best bets for Wednesday night!

Where to Watch Royals vs Red Sox

Ballpark: Fenway Park
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
Where to Watch: NESN, FDSKC
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: BOS -1.5 (+125) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: KC +118 | BOS -138

Bet 1: Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs +108

Getting a Boston Red Sox over at Fenway is the gift that keeps on giving and I’ll keep on unwrapping it against the Kansas City Royals. A day after taking off the bow on a Royals under, we’re going in the opposite direction, in terms of team and offensive expectations.

Boston’s offense has been cooking—and there’s no reason to believe they’ll cool down tonight in one of the league’s best hitting environments. The Red Sox have scored at least five runs in six of their last seven games and have been trending up ever since Alex Bregman rejoined the lineup in mid-July. His return added thump and protection in the heart of the order, and the results have shown: Boston ranks top 10 in MLB in scoring since the All-Star break and fourth over the past 15 days. The Sox continue to mash, especially at home.

Statistically, this lineup has been pounding the ball all year. Boston is among the league leaders in xSLG (.432), xwOBA (.329), and xwOBACON (.393), ranking sixth in barrel rate (10.0%), second in hard-hit rate (45.7%), and leading all of baseball in average exit velocity (90.7 MPH). At Fenway specifically, they’ve been elite—averaging 5.3 runs per game (tops in the AL), third in baseball in team OPS (.789), and ranking top five in both average (.266) and slugging (.451).

Tonight, they draw Michael Wacha, who’s had a respectable season overall—but there’s a pretty clear home-road split in play. His ERA jumps from 2.63 at home to 4.10 on the road, and opponents are hitting nearly 15 points higher against him away from Kansas City. That’s a bad recipe when walking into Fenway, where balls fly out fast and mistakes get punished.

Getting plus money on Boston to plate five or more runs at home against a beatable righty? I’ll sign up for that all day.

KC vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch White Sox vs Mariners

Ballpark: T-Mobile Park
Location: Seattle, Washington
Where to Watch: MLB Network, ROOT Sports NW, CHSN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (-122) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: CWS +215 | SEA -260

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Bet 2: Game Total Under 7.5 (-108)

When two ice-cold offenses meet two capable arms, we hit the brakes on run production—and that’s exactly what we’re doing here with the under at 7.5.

Let’s start with Chicago White Sox, whose offense has been paler than the coldest winter day. The White Sox are dead last in batting average (.229), 29th in OBP (.299), and 29th in slugging (.368), dragging their OPS down to a lifeless .667. They’ve scored just 3.9 runs per game—26th in the league—and have managed only 107 home runs all year, ranking 25th in baseball. This team will be swinging golf clubs by October 1.

The Seattle Mariners offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either. Over the last 15 days, the Mariners are batting just .213 (28th), with an OBP of .281 (28th) and a team OPS of .685 (21st). They’ve scored only 51 runs over that stretch, putting them 20th in the league. Even with trade deadline reinforcements, this lineup is still trying to find a groove.

The good news for the under? Both starters are more than capable of limiting damage. George Kirby has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts—including a pair of scoreless outings. He’s dialed in and back to the form that helped anchor this rotation in 2024.

On the other side, White Sox second-year man Jonathan Cannon was quietly reliable before two recent hiccups. In the five starts prior, he gave up two runs or fewer in every outing and struck out 12 during that stretch. Against a scuffling Seattle lineup, Cannon should be able to settle in and keep the game from getting out of hand.

With both bats trending down and two starters who can eat innings efficiently, this one has all the makings of a low-scoring grind. We’re banking on a quiet night at T-Mobile Park.

CWS vs SEA Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates