MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Tuesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 5)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Tuesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 5)

We’ve got two strong angles on the MLB board tonight — both built around solid pitching facing overmatched offenses. First up, AL Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet gets a dream matchup against a Royals team that’s allergic to contact, power, and run production. Then we head to Queens, where the Mets are in a prime position to bounce back behind Clay Holmes against a Guardians lineup that’s been lifeless all season.

Let’s lock in the numbers and cash both plays tonight with confidence.

Where to Watch Royals vs Red Sox

Ballpark: Fenway Park
Location: Boston, Massachusetts
Where to Watch: NESN, FDSKC
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: BOS -1.5 (+125) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: KC +200 | BOS -245

Bet 1: Royals Under 2.5 Runs +108

If I’m getting plus money for an under when Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Boston Red Sox, I’m all over it against any team, never mind a terrible offense like the Kansas City Royals.

Before we get to Crochet’s dominance, let’s explore my “terrible" statement about KC’s bats. The Royals sit second from the bottom, scoring just 3.6 runs per game on a team OPS (.687) that ranks them 25th in the league. Their .386 slugging percentage puts them 24th and 99 team home runs, third from the bottom in all of baseball. KC’s advanced metrics are no better.

The Royals have the sixth-lowest xwOBACON (.364) in Major League Baseball and are around the bottom 10 in xwOBA (.320), xSLG (.419). They have a hard hit rate (39.6%) that puts them eighth from the basement and a 7.5% barrel rate that ranks KC 25th in the league.

Now to the AL Cy Young contender (+500). Crochet is third in baseball with a 2.23 ERA to go along with a 1.09 WHIP. His 175 strikeouts on the year put him third in MLB, and his 141.1 innings pitched lead the league. Crochet’s advanced metrics are just as eye-popping.

The former Chicago White Sox hurler is in the top one percent of pitchers with a pitching run value of 26. Crochet is also in the top four percent of big league arms with a fastball run value of 14 and a breaking run value of 10. His 31% K rate lands the Tennessee Volunteers alum in the top seven percent of baseball, and his xERA is in the top 15 percent of hurlers.

Crochet has limited seven of his past eight opponents to two runs or fewer, with one run or less coming five times. This is something the Royals’ bats can relate to. The 26-year-old dominated KC for seven innings earlier this season. Crochet allowed just one earned run, while striking out nine, picking up an early-May win in Kansas City.

I like the Cy Young hopeful to continue dealing for his wild card-bound Red Sox, against one of the teams trying to catch them for a playoff spot.

KC vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Guardians vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: SNY, CLEG
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+126) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CLE +136 | NYM -162

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Bet 2: Mets Moneyline -162

While I’d love to get this a little cheaper, it is a better price than the New York Mets were on the moneyline against the Cleveland Guardians last night, when they sat at -178. That said, there is just too much pointing New York’s way tonight not to back the Mets on the moneyline. After dropping a tough one in extras last night, this is a perfect bounce-back spot against a Cleveland offense that’s been one of the weakest in the league from the jump.

Clay Holmes (3.88 ERA) gets the nod for New York, and the transition into the rotation has been seamless. He’s limiting hard contact, keeping the ball in the yard, and has the kind of groundball profile that neutralizes teams exactly like Cleveland — a club dead last in expected batting average (.232), xwOBA (.300), and xSLG (.379). The Guardians also sit near the bottom in barrel rate (6.9%) and hard-hit rate (36.1%), offering very little punch against quality pitching.

Meanwhile, Logan Allen has struggled to keep hitters off balance all year. The Guardians’ lefty brings a 1.36 WHIP and a middling 17.5% strikeout rate into a matchup with one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. This Mets group is loaded with power from both sides, and they’ve been barreling up lefties all season. Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto anchor a lineup that ranks inside the top five in xSLG (.457), xwOBAcon (.400), and barrel rate (10.4%).

Even with some unlucky variance baked into their overall production, the Mets are due for a continued uptick — especially when you compare their .262 xBA to a .241 actual average. Add in Cedric Mullins speed and defensive upgrade in center field, and the roster looks much more complete post-deadline.

Bottom line: New York has the edge in every phase — lineup, starter, and bullpen — and they should take care of business at home tonight behind Holmes. We’re not messing with the runline here. Moneyline is the move.

CLE vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates