MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (July 24)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Thursday’s baseball slate!

Where to Watch San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Ballpark: Busch Stadium
Location: St. Louis, MO
Where to Watch: SDPA, FDSNMW
Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Spread: STL -1.5 (+150) | Total: 8.5 (+100/-122)
Moneyline: SD +120 | STL -142

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

With Thursday’s shortened slate, my attention is drawn toward the San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals.

The projected starters at Busch Stadium are Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray. Given the lineups they are facing, a play on under 8.5 runs (-122 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) looks enticing.

Darvish has only made three starts in 2025, which has produced mixed results by allowing run totals of 2, 4 and 3 since returning from injury. However, the Padres boast MLB’s stingiest bullpen at this juncture, showcasing a 3.13 ERA as a unit (per Covers). That should translate well inside Busch Stadium, which — according to Baseball Savant — is one of the toughest venues to hit a home run.

Across the way, Gray is churning out another strong campaign for St. Louis. FanGraphs shows an impressive 2.88 FIP for Gray; that’s his third-best clip there since entering the majors in 2013.

On offense, both the Friars (.688 team OPS) and Red Birds (.714 team OPS) are ranked within the bottom half of MLB right now. Incidentally, I like under 8.5 at Busch tonight.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-122)

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.

Where to Watch Athletics vs. Houston Astros

Ballpark: Daikin Park
Location: Houston, TX
Where to Watch: NBCSCA, SCHN, MLBN
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Spread: HOU -1.5 (+158) | Total: 8.5 (-128/+104)
Moneyline: ATH +106 | HOU -124

Moving over to the AL West, the Athletics are staying in the Lone Star State to take on the Houston Astros after being swept by the Texas Rangers. Over their prior series in Arlington, the A’s managed just five runs in three games.

Meanwhile, the division-leading Astros are playing good baseball. As of now, Houston has won four consecutive contests while gearing up for another title run, which is part of the reason I like the ‘Stros to emerge victorious on Thursday.

Tonight’s probable pitchers at Daikin Park are Luis Severino and Jason Alexander (not the one from Seinfeld). Alexander actually started the season with the Athletics, but since coming over to Houston, he’s surrendered three runs over nine innings pitched. Behind him, the Astros employ a productive bullpen, carrying a 3.30 ERA (second in the American League).

Severino is operating with a 4.75 skill-interactive ERA currently, which would be one of his worst figures of his big-league career in that category. Taking on Houston’s lineup (.733 team OPS), Severino has a tough task ahead. He has faced the Astros twice in 2025, allowing four total runs en route to two losses for the A’s.

Houston’s run line also caught my eye (+158 odds), but let’s keep it simple with Astros moneyline at -124 odds.