MLB · 1 month ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 7)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 7)

We’re diving into two sharp spots on Thursday’s MLB slate, both backed by analytics, trends, and strong pitcher-vs-lineup edges. First up, a rock-bottom total between the Reds and Pirates is still too high when you factor in the advanced metrics and the Skenes-Singer duel.

Then we head to Atlanta, where a reeling Braves squad is running out of gas—and healthy bodies—against a surging Marlins team that’s still fighting for a playoff push. With Eury Perez in peak form and Atlanta’s lineup ice cold, we like Miami to stay hot and notch a crucial road win.

Let’s get into the numbers.

Where to Watch Reds vs Pirates

Ballpark: PNC Park
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: MLB Network, SportsNet PT, FDSOH
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Spread: PIT -1.5 (+128) | Total: 7
Moneyline: CIN +144 | PIT -172

Bet 1: Game Total Under 7 (-110)

While you might get a little spooked rolling on a total at this low number, with over/unders, the lower or higher usually indicates the side you should lean. In essence, high totals go over more often, and low totals end up seeing the under. For this early evening meeting on the diamond between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, the analytics back it up in spades.

We will get to the elite pitching matchup in a minute, but first, we need to discuss that two of the most anemic offenses are meeting up at PNC Park tonight. First, the Reds. Despite playing in a shoebox at home in the Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati’s overall advanced metrics at the plate are very poor. The Reds have the third-worst xBA (.237), second-lowest xSLG (.382), third-worst xwOBA (.306), and second-lowest xwOBACON (.355) in all of baseball. Cincy’s contact metrics are equally deplorable. The Reds rank third from the bottom in barrel rate (7.0%), hard hit rate (38.2%), and average exit velocity (88.5 MPH). Pittsburgh has a bit more bite, but less than a meal.

The Pirates rank in the bottom 10 in xBA (.248), have the sixth-lowest xSLG (.398), and the third-lowest xwOBA in Major League Baseball. Pittsburgh also sits in the bottom 10 with an 89.3 MPH average exit velocity.

All of these advanced metrics yield some interesting end results. Pittsburgh is actually the lower-scoring team, sitting in baseball’s basement, averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Surprisingly, the Reds have somehow scored the 12th-most runs in the league, averaging 4.5 per night, despite terrible analytics. That said, these numbers point to regression for Cincinnati, as they are hitting above their expected results.

On the mound, we have the MLB ERA leader in Paul Skenes. In his sophomore campaign, Skenes has been about as electric as possible, with a 2.02 earned run average, to go along with the second-lowest WHIP in baseball at 0.92. Shamefully, Skenes has just six wins on the year, thanks to poor run support by the Buccos’ brutal bats. That said, he’s had great success against the Reds. While he hasn’t met them this season, he allowed just one earned run over three starts (17.0 IP) last season.

Brady Singer, on the other hand, has seen Pittsburgh twice this season, putting up solid efforts in each start. The former Kansas City Royal limited the Pirates to two runs on five hits in his last start against them and two hits and three runs in his first start against Pittsburgh this season. On the year, Singer’s 4.36 ERA is up from last year’s 3.71, but his opponents’ batting average is down six points. Better results should be on the way for the man who turned 29 on Monday.

I like the bats to be baffled like they have been much of the year for Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and elite pitching to rule the day.

CIN vs PIT Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Marlins vs Braves

Ballpark: Truist Park
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: MLB Network, FDSSO, FDSFL
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: MIA -1.5 (+130) | Total: 8
Moneyline: MIA -122 | ATL +104

Bet 2: Marlins Moneyline -122

When was the last time the Miami Marlins were the team to watch in the NL East over the Atlanta Braves? With Atlanta’s proud history and perennial competitiveness, it’s been a long while, but this is the universe we live in. The Braves have nothing to play for, while this young and exciting Marlins team is trying to keep their slim wild card chances alive, sitting six games back. They’ll have a chance to gain ground in this rare five-game series, with a doubleheader on tap on Saturday.

Atlanta is spiraling, having dropped seven of its last 10 games. The injury bug refuses to leave the Braves alone. Just as Austin Riley returned to the mix, Ronald Acuna was shelved with a right calf strain—yet another hit to a lineup that’s struggled to find rhythm all year. And, oh yeah, Riley is back on the shelf.

Over the last two weeks, the Braves have hit .227 as a team, ranking 23rd in MLB with a .707 OPS, while scoring only 4.1 runs per game during that stretch. These aren’t isolated struggles—Atlanta’s expected batting average is .250, which places them just outside the bottom 10 league-wide.

On the season, the Braves rank 21st in team batting average (.241), and their offensive numbers have been equally bland—right around league average in OBP, bottom third in slugging, and OPS. Contact has been another sore spot. Atlanta is 11th in strikeouts per game (8.7), and that number has ticked up over the last 30 days to 9.2 per game—fifth-most in the majors. Their chase rate (27.8%) and whiff rate (24.7%) hover around the middle of the pack, reinforcing just how out-of-sync this lineup has been.

Miami has been solid and is having a good second half. The Marlins sit seventh with an XBA of .260, right in line with their top 10 batting average (.252) on the year. Over the past 30 days, the Fish have been swimming hard at the plate, with a top 10 OPS of .744. Powering the offense are Kyle Stowers and Xavier Edwards, who is coming off a four-hit night in a win over the Houston Astros yesterday. The victory last night was Miami’s sixth in its past eight as they send one of their elite arms to the mound to keep their winning ways going in Atlanta.

Eury Perez has been fantastic as of late, following a slow start after missing the first two months of the season with a right elbow issue. Over his past six starts, the second-year man has allowed more than one earned run just once, a five-hit, two-run performance against the San Diego Padres. Over that insane stretch, Perez has given up just four runs over innings. He comes into Atlanta with revenge on his mind after losing to the Braves after giving up three earned over 4.2 innings in his third start of the season.

On the other side, Carlos Carrasco is just trying to stay in the show. In the minors for much of the season, Carrasco was traded to the Braves from the New York Yankees in late July. While his Atlanta debut was solid, with a quality start after throwing six innings, allowing three runs while striking out five in a no-decision against the Reds, his 5.68 ERA on the season is a clearer indication of what you can expect from the veteran hurler.

I like Miami to keep their slim playoff hopes on the front burner with their seventh win in nine games.

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