MLB · 1 week ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 28)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Thursday’s baseball schedule!

Where to Watch Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Ballpark: Oracle Park
Location: San Francisco, CA
Where to Watch: NBCSBA, MARQ
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+155) | Total: 7 (-115/-105)
Moneyline: CHC -106 | SF -110

The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs will get after it for an early start on the West Coast. This will be the final game of 2025 between the Giants and Cubs; we’ll see RHP Logan Webb and LHP Shota Imanaga.

This year, San Francisco has been incredibly poor when facing left-handed pitching. Specifically, the Giants are slashing .210/.277/.349 against southpaws. From there, Imanaga has been quite good in 2025, boasting a 0.94 WHIP through 19 outings.

From the home side, Webb has been masterful this campaign. He is punching out 9.72 batters per nine innings, which would be his best single-season clip in that category. Webb also shows a razor-sharp 2.59 FIP.

With the way these offenses have performed over the past month, I like the under in San Francisco. The lineups are frustrated, the pitchers are quality, and the ballpark is tough on hitters (Oracle Park carries a 96 Park Factor score, per Baseball Savant).

Best Bet: Under 7 (-105)

Where to Watch Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: NBCSP, FDSNSO, MLBN
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+106) | Total: 9.5 (-106/-114))
Moneyline: CHC -106 | SF -110

Out in the “City of Brotherly Love," the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet for their final head-to-head series of 2025. To open up the four-game set, prepare for projected starters Cal Quantrill and Aaron Nola.

Transparently, neither pitcher has had much success this year. Quantrill has a 5.51 ERA to go with his 1.42 WHIP. In that same vein, Nola has a 4.99 FIP in 11 appearances. Neither hurler is close to a winning record.

When compared to Atlanta, Philadelphia has been the better offensive side across the board. The Phils have produced 4.7 runs per game while the Braves are at 4.47 runs per game. From there, Philly displays a +84 run differential; Atlanta is sporting -2 there.

Overall, the Braves have performed poorly on the run line in 2025. To this point, Atlanta has a 61-72 (45.9%) ATS record, which is a bottom-five rate amongst the National League. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 68-65 (51.1%) ATS.

I like the Fightin’ Phils to take care of business at home (where they are 42-22 this season). Given today’s odds (+106), I love Philadelphia to win by more than one run.