MLB · 2 weeks ago

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 21)

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (August 21)

There is no stopping us now. The MLB season and summer are fully underway, meaning there are betting opportunities every day between now and October. We’ve got you covered for Thursday’s baseball schedule!

Where to Watch Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: New York, NY
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+142) | Total: 8.5 (+100/-122)
Moneyline: BOS +126 | NYY -152

The New York Yankees will begin their final home series against the archrival Boston Red Sox on Thursday. In the opener, we’ll see right-handed hurlers Lucas Giolito and Luis Gil on the bump.

In 2025, Giolito has been solid since returning to action. He sports an 8-2 record, but his 4.46 FIP is middle of the road. Across the way, Gil has not done well in three starts. Presently, he shows a 1.64 WHIP, having allowed eight runs.

Given the pitching matchup is not the most fierce that we’ll see in this series, I am leaning toward over 8.5 total runs here. Notably, the Bronx Bombers boast the top team OPS (.785) in the Majors. From there, the Yanks have plated 5.2 runs per game this season. Fun fact: they’ve blasted 105 homers when playing at Yankee Stadium in 2025 (compared to 90 HR on the road).

The Red Sox can also swing it. Currently, they are slashing .248/.318/.424, which ranks within MLB’s top-10 ball clubs. Additionally, Boston has been the very best away team for over bettors, converting at a 34-26-1 (56.7%) rate. With that, I think these rivals combine for at least nine runs at the ballpark in the Bronx.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 (+100)

Where to Watch St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Ballpark: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Location: Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FDSNMW, FDSNSUN
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: STL -1.5 (+142) | Total: 8.5 (-105/-115)
Moneyline: STL -122 | TB +104

Staying with another franchise from the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays will begin an interleague series on Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals. For projected starters, expect to see Sonny Gray and Joe Boyle in action.

Gray has been quite productive for St. Louis this season. He’s tagged with a 3.24 FIP while punching out 9.94 hitters per nine innings. Meanwhile, Boyle has a 1.48 WHIP over eight appearances in 2025.

Thursday’s weather forecast predicts high temperatures in Tampa. That will lead to increased carry-on batted balls, which has me thinking about another over for today’s slate.

Over 8.5 runs seems like the most sensible approach in this contest. Hitting conditions will be optimal, and notably, George M. Steinbrenner Field is small in the corners (318 ft. in LF; 314 ft. in RF). Lastly, the Rays’ lineup has fared much better in home games this year, earning a .744 OPS (versus only a .679 OPS on the road).

Here’s to scoring as we approach the weekend!